Political Pulse
@electionprediction.bsky.social
Sharing statistics and intuition based predictions for future elections.
New Jersey 11th special election prediction:
February 6, 2026 at 3:31 AM
New Jersey 11th special election prediction:
My prediction for the GA-14 (MTG's district) special election- will be closer than people think.
January 14, 2026 at 4:10 PM
My prediction for the GA-14 (MTG's district) special election- will be closer than people think.
2026 Ohio Senate Prediction:
January 2, 2026 at 6:06 AM
2026 Ohio Senate Prediction:
2026 Texas Senate Prediction:
Talarico vs. Paxton:
Talarico vs. Paxton:
December 31, 2025 at 8:14 AM
2026 Texas Senate Prediction:
Talarico vs. Paxton:
Talarico vs. Paxton:
2026 North Carolina Senate prediction:
November 10, 2025 at 3:31 AM
2026 North Carolina Senate prediction:
Pretty pleased with how my Virginia and New Jersey governor predictions turned out. I was only off by 0.6% in Virginia and a bit over 2% in New Jersey. What races should I try next?
November 6, 2025 at 5:00 AM
Pretty pleased with how my Virginia and New Jersey governor predictions turned out. I was only off by 0.6% in Virginia and a bit over 2% in New Jersey. What races should I try next?
2026 House election prediction, assuming the VRA stands (CA, TX, UT, MO, OH redraws)
October 17, 2025 at 9:43 PM
2026 House election prediction, assuming the VRA stands (CA, TX, UT, MO, OH redraws)
Tennessee 7th Congressional Special Election: Republican wins, but Dems are likely to overperform.
October 11, 2025 at 8:28 PM
Tennessee 7th Congressional Special Election: Republican wins, but Dems are likely to overperform.
New Jersey Governor's race:
October 6, 2025 at 3:20 AM
New Jersey Governor's race:
Virginia gubernatorial prediction:
October 6, 2025 at 3:19 AM
Virginia gubernatorial prediction: