I don't like predictions, so I'll just say that the evidence we have suggests Trump will invoke the Act but claim it's only to give appropriate border enforcement powers to soldiers in the border's Roosevelt Reservation. It'll be a lie—but it'll delay a nationwide reaction to what he's really up to.

What this means is that if Trump invokes the Insurrection Act, it manifestly has nothing to do with the Southern border—and is instead a continuation of his sick emulation of Salvadoran dictator Nayib Bukele (i.e. repeatedly declaring fake national emergencies solely to accrue new fascistic powers).