Ed Conway
@edconway.bsky.social
Did I mention I wrote a book...?
Thank you glad you enjoyed it!
November 5, 2025 at 1:28 PM
Thank you glad you enjoyed it!
The Hong Kong/Ukraine numbers are counted separately to the normal asylum numbers (which includes Afghanistan asylum seekers). They are the "safe and legal routes" categories in the breakdown chart I included.
September 10, 2025 at 1:02 PM
The Hong Kong/Ukraine numbers are counted separately to the normal asylum numbers (which includes Afghanistan asylum seekers). They are the "safe and legal routes" categories in the breakdown chart I included.
Thanks Paul! Nice to hear from you 👍
August 4, 2025 at 12:53 PM
Thanks Paul! Nice to hear from you 👍
The picture does not do justice to how very hot the room was
July 29, 2025 at 8:36 PM
The picture does not do justice to how very hot the room was
I can't speak for why, since these decisions are way above my pay grade, but, out of curiosity, what have you got against watching it on YouTube?
July 29, 2025 at 8:34 PM
I can't speak for why, since these decisions are way above my pay grade, but, out of curiosity, what have you got against watching it on YouTube?
All of which is to say, while the conventional wisdom in economic circles is that inflation has been tamed, don't discount the fact that a) most people don't feel that way and b) it might not be tamed, in a very real macroeconomic sense, anyway
June 18, 2025 at 10:25 AM
All of which is to say, while the conventional wisdom in economic circles is that inflation has been tamed, don't discount the fact that a) most people don't feel that way and b) it might not be tamed, in a very real macroeconomic sense, anyway
It's very possible that tariffs push prices higher - even if they're primarily imposed in the US. Most big consumer electronics firms are global players, and if they're raising prices in the US they may v well do likewise in Europe too. This stuff is v hard to model...
June 18, 2025 at 10:25 AM
It's very possible that tariffs push prices higher - even if they're primarily imposed in the US. Most big consumer electronics firms are global players, and if they're raising prices in the US they may v well do likewise in Europe too. This stuff is v hard to model...
That brings me to the second key underlying story, which is that there are all sorts of hard-to-quantify forces which could push inflation higher.
Take the war between Israel & Iran. That's already lifted oil prices recently (albeit they're still lower than earlier in the year)
Take the war between Israel & Iran. That's already lifted oil prices recently (albeit they're still lower than earlier in the year)
June 18, 2025 at 10:25 AM
That brings me to the second key underlying story, which is that there are all sorts of hard-to-quantify forces which could push inflation higher.
Take the war between Israel & Iran. That's already lifted oil prices recently (albeit they're still lower than earlier in the year)
Take the war between Israel & Iran. That's already lifted oil prices recently (albeit they're still lower than earlier in the year)
Most people feel changes in prices over a much longer horizon than the 1yr rate economists/politicians/the media focus on.
It's not to say either measure is the "right" one.
But if you're primarily looking at the annual rate it can delude you into thinking inflation is tamed
It's not to say either measure is the "right" one.
But if you're primarily looking at the annual rate it can delude you into thinking inflation is tamed
June 18, 2025 at 10:25 AM
Most people feel changes in prices over a much longer horizon than the 1yr rate economists/politicians/the media focus on.
It's not to say either measure is the "right" one.
But if you're primarily looking at the annual rate it can delude you into thinking inflation is tamed
It's not to say either measure is the "right" one.
But if you're primarily looking at the annual rate it can delude you into thinking inflation is tamed
Look at the FOUR year CPI rate and it's higher in recent months than it has been since the early 90s👇
That folks STILL feel there's a cost of living problem isn't because they haven't read the latest inflation data. It's because they read inflation differently to economists
That folks STILL feel there's a cost of living problem isn't because they haven't read the latest inflation data. It's because they read inflation differently to economists
June 18, 2025 at 10:25 AM
Look at the FOUR year CPI rate and it's higher in recent months than it has been since the early 90s👇
That folks STILL feel there's a cost of living problem isn't because they haven't read the latest inflation data. It's because they read inflation differently to economists
That folks STILL feel there's a cost of living problem isn't because they haven't read the latest inflation data. It's because they read inflation differently to economists
But when you go to the supermarket are you only thinking about prices over the past year?
Of course not. You're thinking over recent years. Say, the past FOUR years.
And over the past 4 yrs, the level of prices is up 25%.
This is another legitimate measure of cost of living! 👇
Of course not. You're thinking over recent years. Say, the past FOUR years.
And over the past 4 yrs, the level of prices is up 25%.
This is another legitimate measure of cost of living! 👇
June 18, 2025 at 10:25 AM
But when you go to the supermarket are you only thinking about prices over the past year?
Of course not. You're thinking over recent years. Say, the past FOUR years.
And over the past 4 yrs, the level of prices is up 25%.
This is another legitimate measure of cost of living! 👇
Of course not. You're thinking over recent years. Say, the past FOUR years.
And over the past 4 yrs, the level of prices is up 25%.
This is another legitimate measure of cost of living! 👇
But, as I say, what that number is is simply looking at the difference in the LEVEL of prices over the past year. This chart is that level. (The actual consumer price index!).
And yes, look over the year to May and it's up 3.4%.
And yes, look over the year to May and it's up 3.4%.
June 18, 2025 at 10:25 AM
But, as I say, what that number is is simply looking at the difference in the LEVEL of prices over the past year. This chart is that level. (The actual consumer price index!).
And yes, look over the year to May and it's up 3.4%.
And yes, look over the year to May and it's up 3.4%.