Stephen Brown
@economy-steve.bsky.social
Economist at Capital Economics
The recovery in the ASA Staff Index bodes well for the labour market heading into 2026
December 10, 2025 at 6:42 PM
The recovery in the ASA Staff Index bodes well for the labour market heading into 2026
The US faces a larger maturity wall next year, although there is only limited sign of concern in high-yield credit spreads so far
December 9, 2025 at 4:04 PM
The US faces a larger maturity wall next year, although there is only limited sign of concern in high-yield credit spreads so far
The JOLTS job opening rate rebounded to 4.6% in October, although that simply keeps it within the range seen over the past year or so. The timelier Indeed data suggest it was more of the same in November
December 9, 2025 at 3:08 PM
The JOLTS job opening rate rebounded to 4.6% in October, although that simply keeps it within the range seen over the past year or so. The timelier Indeed data suggest it was more of the same in November
There was a record large jump in firms' reported selling prices in November according to the NFIB survey, presenting upside risks to inflation in the coming months
December 9, 2025 at 12:13 PM
There was a record large jump in firms' reported selling prices in November according to the NFIB survey, presenting upside risks to inflation in the coming months
The NFIB survey suggests the labour market is roaring back to life
December 9, 2025 at 11:18 AM
The NFIB survey suggests the labour market is roaring back to life
Monthly lay-off announcements dropped back toward 70k in November, from 150k in October. So a step in the right direction, although they are still somewhat elevated
December 4, 2025 at 12:38 PM
Monthly lay-off announcements dropped back toward 70k in November, from 150k in October. So a step in the right direction, although they are still somewhat elevated
The ISM Services price paid index fell sharply last month, but still points to stronger "supercore" (services ex shelter) inflation
December 4, 2025 at 12:29 PM
The ISM Services price paid index fell sharply last month, but still points to stronger "supercore" (services ex shelter) inflation
The 32,000 decline in ADP payrolls reverses much of the prior rise, and suggests that private payrolls have been close to unchanged in recent months. That said, ADP has historically been a poor guide to the first non-farm payrolls estimate
December 3, 2025 at 2:02 PM
The 32,000 decline in ADP payrolls reverses much of the prior rise, and suggests that private payrolls have been close to unchanged in recent months. That said, ADP has historically been a poor guide to the first non-farm payrolls estimate
Core durable goods orders were strong again in September, with the three-month annualised growth rate now the highest since 2022. That said, the survey indicators suggest that this strength is unlikely to be sustained
November 26, 2025 at 1:36 PM
Core durable goods orders were strong again in September, with the three-month annualised growth rate now the highest since 2022. That said, the survey indicators suggest that this strength is unlikely to be sustained
The jobs differential in the Conference Board's consumer survey has been little changed in recent months, albeit at a level that suggests the unemployment rate could edge higher still
November 25, 2025 at 3:14 PM
The jobs differential in the Conference Board's consumer survey has been little changed in recent months, albeit at a level that suggests the unemployment rate could edge higher still
The soft gain in retail sales in September is likely to be followed by a weak October, with Cox Automotive reporting a steep 7% m/m drop in vehicle sales in October - to a 16-month low - amid the government shutdown and as EV subsidies came to an end
November 25, 2025 at 2:02 PM
The soft gain in retail sales in September is likely to be followed by a weak October, with Cox Automotive reporting a steep 7% m/m drop in vehicle sales in October - to a 16-month low - amid the government shutdown and as EV subsidies came to an end
According to S&P Global, the number of large firms declaring bankruptcy has risen in recent months. That said, the big picture is that bankruptcies are only a touch higher than in 2024
November 19, 2025 at 2:04 PM
According to S&P Global, the number of large firms declaring bankruptcy has risen in recent months. That said, the big picture is that bankruptcies are only a touch higher than in 2024
The NY Fed manufacturing survey shows that firms' employment and investment intentions were both at 10-month highs in October, although they have been very volatile this year
November 19, 2025 at 12:58 PM
The NY Fed manufacturing survey shows that firms' employment and investment intentions were both at 10-month highs in October, although they have been very volatile this year
Small businesses' reported price changes edged back down in October, consistent with sub 3% core price inflation
November 11, 2025 at 11:08 AM
Small businesses' reported price changes edged back down in October, consistent with sub 3% core price inflation
The University of Michigan survey shows that consumers remain extremely concerned about the risk of job losses
November 10, 2025 at 3:04 PM
The University of Michigan survey shows that consumers remain extremely concerned about the risk of job losses
Job cut announcements surpassed 150k in October according to Challenger's tracking, but note that many of these have already happened. For example, UPS was responsible for almost 50k, but says it has already shed those positions earlier this year
November 6, 2025 at 1:41 PM
Job cut announcements surpassed 150k in October according to Challenger's tracking, but note that many of these have already happened. For example, UPS was responsible for almost 50k, but says it has already shed those positions earlier this year
Our weighted average ISM prices paid index edged down in October, but remains consistent with headline inflation near 3%
November 5, 2025 at 5:05 PM
Our weighted average ISM prices paid index edged down in October, but remains consistent with headline inflation near 3%
The S&P Composite PMI rebounded in October and remains consistent with GDP growth of between 2% and 3%
October 24, 2025 at 2:06 PM
The S&P Composite PMI rebounded in October and remains consistent with GDP growth of between 2% and 3%
The ISM services prices paid index continues to point to upside risks to services inflation
October 3, 2025 at 2:22 PM
The ISM services prices paid index continues to point to upside risks to services inflation
Despite tariff effects, the drop back in the ISM manufacturing prices paid index last month means it's now back at a level that has historically been consistent with 2% inflation
October 2, 2025 at 1:35 PM
Despite tariff effects, the drop back in the ISM manufacturing prices paid index last month means it's now back at a level that has historically been consistent with 2% inflation
In the absence of official labour market data, the Fed may put some weight on the further deterioration in the Conference Board measure of jobs hard to cut last month
October 2, 2025 at 1:13 PM
In the absence of official labour market data, the Fed may put some weight on the further deterioration in the Conference Board measure of jobs hard to cut last month
No jobless claims data today, but job cut announcements dropped back again in September according to Challenger. At 54,000, they are still 10,000 more than the three-year average prior to the pandemic
October 2, 2025 at 12:39 PM
No jobless claims data today, but job cut announcements dropped back again in September according to Challenger. At 54,000, they are still 10,000 more than the three-year average prior to the pandemic
The 32,000 decline the ADP payroll measure appears concerning, but it tells us basically nothing about the September Employment Report non-farm payrolls measure
October 1, 2025 at 1:39 PM
The 32,000 decline the ADP payroll measure appears concerning, but it tells us basically nothing about the September Employment Report non-farm payrolls measure
Case-Shiller house prices edged down again in July, but the smaller 0.1% m/m fall means the market is showing some signs of stabilisation again - should be helped by lower mortgage rates in the coming months
September 30, 2025 at 1:13 PM
Case-Shiller house prices edged down again in July, but the smaller 0.1% m/m fall means the market is showing some signs of stabilisation again - should be helped by lower mortgage rates in the coming months
No sign of labour market weakness feeding through to spending, with real consumption growth strong in August and the 3m/3m annualised rate accelerating to 2.4% thanks to broad gains in discretionary goods and services spending
September 26, 2025 at 1:05 PM
No sign of labour market weakness feeding through to spending, with real consumption growth strong in August and the 3m/3m annualised rate accelerating to 2.4% thanks to broad gains in discretionary goods and services spending