EconChrisClarke
@econchrisclarke.bsky.social
I Make Videos About Economics
Ceteris Paribus
Assistant Professor (Career-Track) at Washington State University
https://econchrisclarke.wordpress.com/tiktok-sources-and-notes/
There are impersonators of me out there. Please report.
Ceteris Paribus
Assistant Professor (Career-Track) at Washington State University
https://econchrisclarke.wordpress.com/tiktok-sources-and-notes/
There are impersonators of me out there. Please report.
Sen. Rand Paul claims food stamp spending doubled "an alarming trend." But this relies on 4 mistakes. 1. Graph can't replicate. 2. Need to adjust for Inflation 3. The economy is now bigger. 4. Share of Pop on Food Stamps Actually Declined. Conclusion: There is no trend.
October 31, 2025 at 6:50 PM
Sen. Rand Paul claims food stamp spending doubled "an alarming trend." But this relies on 4 mistakes. 1. Graph can't replicate. 2. Need to adjust for Inflation 3. The economy is now bigger. 4. Share of Pop on Food Stamps Actually Declined. Conclusion: There is no trend.
Autopilot is drastically reducing accidents. data from Tesla, Waymo, Police Records, and Peer review research are now all showing it. Will eventually save global economy $1T in lower premiums alone.
October 25, 2025 at 12:32 AM
Autopilot is drastically reducing accidents. data from Tesla, Waymo, Police Records, and Peer review research are now all showing it. Will eventually save global economy $1T in lower premiums alone.
Degrowth Economics can't work. Even Ecuador's consumption is too high. It requires a massive increase in poverty. Impossible to do in a democracy. We need massive green technology investments, which even have modest bipartisan support.
October 19, 2025 at 8:07 PM
Degrowth Economics can't work. Even Ecuador's consumption is too high. It requires a massive increase in poverty. Impossible to do in a democracy. We need massive green technology investments, which even have modest bipartisan support.
We've never seen mortgage lock-in like this before. We're talking 90% of mortgages! Some estimates say it caused 8% of the price increase due to the already tight housing market before 2022. What do you think? Is this enough to abandon the 30yr fixed?
September 30, 2025 at 1:38 AM
We've never seen mortgage lock-in like this before. We're talking 90% of mortgages! Some estimates say it caused 8% of the price increase due to the already tight housing market before 2022. What do you think? Is this enough to abandon the 30yr fixed?
I was asked why tariffs haven't crashed the economy. The answer: I never predicted they would in the first place. My videos from Jan & Apr both forecasted growth slowdown and modest price rises. And that's exactly what we've seen.
September 28, 2025 at 12:13 AM
I was asked why tariffs haven't crashed the economy. The answer: I never predicted they would in the first place. My videos from Jan & Apr both forecasted growth slowdown and modest price rises. And that's exactly what we've seen.
Are monopolies destroying democracy? New paper says yes. Using idiosyncratic firm-level shocks to estimate a causal effect, the increase in markups can explain about a quarter of the global democracy decline. For the US, it's 42%.
September 14, 2025 at 9:15 PM
Are monopolies destroying democracy? New paper says yes. Using idiosyncratic firm-level shocks to estimate a causal effect, the increase in markups can explain about a quarter of the global democracy decline. For the US, it's 42%.
Lisa Cook had communicated to her Credit Union that the second home in Georgia is a "vacation home." If reporting is true, this eliminates the governments case against her. It's further evidence of increased partisan regulation of our economy.
September 14, 2025 at 12:08 AM
Lisa Cook had communicated to her Credit Union that the second home in Georgia is a "vacation home." If reporting is true, this eliminates the governments case against her. It's further evidence of increased partisan regulation of our economy.
Firing Fed Governor without Due Process harms Fed Independence and sets a dangerous precedent for our checks and balances. The long term consequences will be more inflation.
August 26, 2025 at 8:10 PM
Firing Fed Governor without Due Process harms Fed Independence and sets a dangerous precedent for our checks and balances. The long term consequences will be more inflation.
Did the Fed cut interest rates in the Fall to help Harris win the election? No. 1) They did a further cut in Dec. 2) monetary policy has a 6-mo lag. 3) Sahm Rule triggered in Aug '24 4) Inflation pressure still elevated.
August 6, 2025 at 5:18 PM
Did the Fed cut interest rates in the Fall to help Harris win the election? No. 1) They did a further cut in Dec. 2) monetary policy has a 6-mo lag. 3) Sahm Rule triggered in Aug '24 4) Inflation pressure still elevated.
BLS preliminary estimates have actually increased their accuracy over time. There is always room for improvement and survey responses have decreased. Improved accuracy requires more resources, not less.
August 4, 2025 at 8:01 PM
BLS preliminary estimates have actually increased their accuracy over time. There is always room for improvement and survey responses have decreased. Improved accuracy requires more resources, not less.
We've solved the long standing European language family tree puzzle. Finnish does not originate in the Ural mountains, but rather much further East near Lake Baikal near Mongolia 4k yrs ago. Why did they move West? Long-distance trade brought about by the bronze revolution.
July 20, 2025 at 5:55 PM
We've solved the long standing European language family tree puzzle. Finnish does not originate in the Ural mountains, but rather much further East near Lake Baikal near Mongolia 4k yrs ago. Why did they move West? Long-distance trade brought about by the bronze revolution.
JD Vance claims low PPI inflation numbers mean economists don't understand tariffs? Is it true? No. PPI explicitly excluded imports. And the tariff-sensitive domestic goods, such as steel and furniture, are seeing price hikes.
July 16, 2025 at 7:00 PM
JD Vance claims low PPI inflation numbers mean economists don't understand tariffs? Is it true? No. PPI explicitly excluded imports. And the tariff-sensitive domestic goods, such as steel and furniture, are seeing price hikes.
Tariffs are starting to show up on inflation data. Effect is still rather muted. As prices go up in some industries (furniture), consumers pull back in others (airfair) causing those prices to fall. Monetary policy is keeping total demand in check.
July 15, 2025 at 7:41 PM
Tariffs are starting to show up on inflation data. Effect is still rather muted. As prices go up in some industries (furniture), consumers pull back in others (airfair) causing those prices to fall. Monetary policy is keeping total demand in check.
Has inequality caused restaurants to struggle? After all, the rich only eat 3 meals a day. Yet, we see growth in new establishments. Worker pay is up. And we now spend more eating out than on groceries. Still, Keynes' insights about inequality leading to less MPC has some merit for recessions.
July 15, 2025 at 12:14 AM
Has inequality caused restaurants to struggle? After all, the rich only eat 3 meals a day. Yet, we see growth in new establishments. Worker pay is up. And we now spend more eating out than on groceries. Still, Keynes' insights about inequality leading to less MPC has some merit for recessions.
How does the data show Median Incomes rising faster than the Cost of Living, when housing is way less affordable? Answer: Other things have become relatively cheaper offsetting that. The prices of clothing, furniture, appliances, groceries, recreation have grown less than wages.
July 13, 2025 at 7:37 PM
How does the data show Median Incomes rising faster than the Cost of Living, when housing is way less affordable? Answer: Other things have become relatively cheaper offsetting that. The prices of clothing, furniture, appliances, groceries, recreation have grown less than wages.
GenZ is making more money than the rest of us. Good. We still have a lot of inequality. Bad. Even Hayek cared about relative incomes. Good news: Wage growth for bottom 10% is catching up.
July 12, 2025 at 9:16 PM
GenZ is making more money than the rest of us. Good. We still have a lot of inequality. Bad. Even Hayek cared about relative incomes. Good news: Wage growth for bottom 10% is catching up.
Americans are moving to more disaster prone areas. The greater financial opportunities in coastal areas appear to outweight the risks. But because of government disaster relief, this creates moral hazard. How should we address this? Increases property taxes? A personalized public FEMA premium?
July 10, 2025 at 8:10 PM
Americans are moving to more disaster prone areas. The greater financial opportunities in coastal areas appear to outweight the risks. But because of government disaster relief, this creates moral hazard. How should we address this? Increases property taxes? A personalized public FEMA premium?
Medicaid work requirements don't increase employment. They should be called "red tape requirements." Their implementation only cuts healthcare for hard-working low-income Americans. Also, the Bill's largest Medicaid cuts are just blanket funding cuts; nothing to do with working
July 6, 2025 at 9:46 PM
Medicaid work requirements don't increase employment. They should be called "red tape requirements." Their implementation only cuts healthcare for hard-working low-income Americans. Also, the Bill's largest Medicaid cuts are just blanket funding cuts; nothing to do with working
Are Humans particularly violent? We don't initiate violence as much as chimps, but do we finish the job more often. Pre-agricultural violence was less frequent than previously thought. Farming's hierchies and scale brought a whole lot more violence. Recently, we've become more peaceful.
July 5, 2025 at 10:17 PM
Are Humans particularly violent? We don't initiate violence as much as chimps, but do we finish the job more often. Pre-agricultural violence was less frequent than previously thought. Farming's hierchies and scale brought a whole lot more violence. Recently, we've become more peaceful.
With rising inequality tearing apart the social fabric of America, what institutions will save us? Churches, post offices, libraries? No. You'll never guess.
July 4, 2025 at 8:01 PM
With rising inequality tearing apart the social fabric of America, what institutions will save us? Churches, post offices, libraries? No. You'll never guess.
NY has elected a socialist mayor before: LaGuardia! And he was a Republican. That said, government grocery stores won't fix food retail. Cuz food retail already has low competitive profits.
June 26, 2025 at 1:11 AM
NY has elected a socialist mayor before: LaGuardia! And he was a Republican. That said, government grocery stores won't fix food retail. Cuz food retail already has low competitive profits.
I've yet to met a hetero couple where the woman takes out the trash? Why? (The question appears so obvious that I'm not aware of any survey data that even asks the gendered difference).
June 19, 2025 at 5:48 PM
I've yet to met a hetero couple where the woman takes out the trash? Why? (The question appears so obvious that I'm not aware of any survey data that even asks the gendered difference).
The United States is nowhere near "full". Growth from native births is set to shrink behind deaths in about a decade. The U.S. population density is tiny. Many Midwestern cities' populations are smaller than 30 yrs ago. We have lots of room.
June 10, 2025 at 11:35 PM
The United States is nowhere near "full". Growth from native births is set to shrink behind deaths in about a decade. The U.S. population density is tiny. Many Midwestern cities' populations are smaller than 30 yrs ago. We have lots of room.
Viral claim that minimum wage used to have the purchasing power of $66 an hour. Nope. It did max out at $11.27 in '68. Today, after looking at state and local MW, I calculate avg MW is now $11.73.
May 18, 2025 at 9:37 PM
Viral claim that minimum wage used to have the purchasing power of $66 an hour. Nope. It did max out at $11.27 in '68. Today, after looking at state and local MW, I calculate avg MW is now $11.73.
How does an economic good become "elite"? Why do Stradivarius 🎻 sell for millions when an equal quality modern sells for a fraction? Steinway 🎹 can't do it. What is so unique about the Strad? I explore it this quick video.
May 17, 2025 at 11:08 PM
How does an economic good become "elite"? Why do Stradivarius 🎻 sell for millions when an equal quality modern sells for a fraction? Steinway 🎹 can't do it. What is so unique about the Strad? I explore it this quick video.