Dimiter Toshkov
@dtoshkov.bsky.social
comparative politics, European Union governance, research methods and design, data visualization, bureaucracy and public administration
Reviewer 2:
You have no definition of 'sanctions'. Also, I don't like your definition of 'sanctions'. 😂😡🥹
You have no definition of 'sanctions'. Also, I don't like your definition of 'sanctions'. 😂😡🥹
November 5, 2025 at 9:22 AM
Reviewer 2:
You have no definition of 'sanctions'. Also, I don't like your definition of 'sanctions'. 😂😡🥹
You have no definition of 'sanctions'. Also, I don't like your definition of 'sanctions'. 😂😡🥹
It is truly disappointing how small-minded some political scientists can be 😮💨. For a recent study on enforcement in the EU, we dug deep into the general literature on enforcement, which spans evolutionary psychology, anthropology, economic behavior, etc.
Here is what Reviewer 2 has to say:
Here is what Reviewer 2 has to say:
November 5, 2025 at 9:04 AM
It is truly disappointing how small-minded some political scientists can be 😮💨. For a recent study on enforcement in the EU, we dug deep into the general literature on enforcement, which spans evolutionary psychology, anthropology, economic behavior, etc.
Here is what Reviewer 2 has to say:
Here is what Reviewer 2 has to say:
For my course on Conflict and Representation in the EU, I made an interactive Shiny app that plots CHES party positions, for all countries, years (1999-2024) and (most) dimensions in the dataset. Enjoy!
dimiter.shinyapps.io/ches/
#polsci #Polisky #EUsky #Comparativesky #polbehaviorsky
dimiter.shinyapps.io/ches/
#polsci #Polisky #EUsky #Comparativesky #polbehaviorsky
November 3, 2025 at 9:32 AM
For my course on Conflict and Representation in the EU, I made an interactive Shiny app that plots CHES party positions, for all countries, years (1999-2024) and (most) dimensions in the dataset. Enjoy!
dimiter.shinyapps.io/ches/
#polsci #Polisky #EUsky #Comparativesky #polbehaviorsky
dimiter.shinyapps.io/ches/
#polsci #Polisky #EUsky #Comparativesky #polbehaviorsky
Pedantic point, but the reported increases/decreases are not in % (percentages), as suggested by this @nieuws.nos.nl table, but in percentage *points*.
NSC lost 97% of its vote share, not 12.5%.
NSC lost 97% of its vote share, not 12.5%.
October 30, 2025 at 2:55 PM
Pedantic point, but the reported increases/decreases are not in % (percentages), as suggested by this @nieuws.nos.nl table, but in percentage *points*.
NSC lost 97% of its vote share, not 12.5%.
NSC lost 97% of its vote share, not 12.5%.
Same graph for prospective voters of VVD (in blue) and GL-PvdA (red). VVD supporters are quite negative of GL-PvdA voters already, shortly after the fall of the cabinet. Feelings seem to be mutual, with GL-PvdA supporters quite negative towards VVD voters as well.
October 30, 2025 at 8:30 AM
Same graph for prospective voters of VVD (in blue) and GL-PvdA (red). VVD supporters are quite negative of GL-PvdA voters already, shortly after the fall of the cabinet. Feelings seem to be mutual, with GL-PvdA supporters quite negative towards VVD voters as well.
Affective polarization (negative/positive feelings towards voters of different parties), for prospective voters of D66 and CDA, as of june 2025. Dots show the averages per groups of party voters.
DD6 voters were much more negative towards JA21 than CDA voters were negative towards GL-PvdA voters.
DD6 voters were much more negative towards JA21 than CDA voters were negative towards GL-PvdA voters.
October 30, 2025 at 8:26 AM
Affective polarization (negative/positive feelings towards voters of different parties), for prospective voters of D66 and CDA, as of june 2025. Dots show the averages per groups of party voters.
DD6 voters were much more negative towards JA21 than CDA voters were negative towards GL-PvdA voters.
DD6 voters were much more negative towards JA21 than CDA voters were negative towards GL-PvdA voters.
Call me old-fashioned, but I find such open endorsement of political figures by university professors on professional social networks inappropriate.
It is actions like this one that erode the credibility of social scientists as independent experts.
It is actions like this one that erode the credibility of social scientists as independent experts.
October 28, 2025 at 4:07 PM
Call me old-fashioned, but I find such open endorsement of political figures by university professors on professional social networks inappropriate.
It is actions like this one that erode the credibility of social scientists as independent experts.
It is actions like this one that erode the credibility of social scientists as independent experts.
The reintroduction of compulsory military service is more contentious, as well as military exercises in protected nature areas.
These are the first results from our new survey of the population of South Holland, with @larsbrummel.bsky.social
Stay tuned for more insights on policy polarization in NL.
These are the first results from our new survey of the population of South Holland, with @larsbrummel.bsky.social
Stay tuned for more insights on policy polarization in NL.
June 27, 2025 at 11:21 AM
The reintroduction of compulsory military service is more contentious, as well as military exercises in protected nature areas.
These are the first results from our new survey of the population of South Holland, with @larsbrummel.bsky.social
Stay tuned for more insights on policy polarization in NL.
These are the first results from our new survey of the population of South Holland, with @larsbrummel.bsky.social
Stay tuned for more insights on policy polarization in NL.
There is a very strong support among people in Holland for an active role of the Dutch government in international cooperation and defence. There are also big, cross-partisan majorities in favor of increasing the defence budget and continuing sending weapons to Ukraine.
shorturl.at/svcZp
shorturl.at/svcZp
June 27, 2025 at 11:16 AM
There is a very strong support among people in Holland for an active role of the Dutch government in international cooperation and defence. There are also big, cross-partisan majorities in favor of increasing the defence budget and continuing sending weapons to Ukraine.
shorturl.at/svcZp
shorturl.at/svcZp
Last week I completed another edition of my short introductory course to R for social science PhD students @fggaleiden.bsky.social. The course covers fundamentals, data wrangling, data analysis (stat models) and data visualisation. All the slides are freely available at dimiter.eu/R-tutorial.h....
April 1, 2025 at 8:23 AM
Last week I completed another edition of my short introductory course to R for social science PhD students @fggaleiden.bsky.social. The course covers fundamentals, data wrangling, data analysis (stat models) and data visualisation. All the slides are freely available at dimiter.eu/R-tutorial.h....
A major strength of our approach is the fine-grained weekly, province-level data on *excess mortality* - the best measure of the death toll of the pandemic - estimated from micro-level data from the CBS.
There is significant variation not only over time, but across provinces as well.
There is significant variation not only over time, but across provinces as well.
March 31, 2025 at 9:05 AM
A major strength of our approach is the fine-grained weekly, province-level data on *excess mortality* - the best measure of the death toll of the pandemic - estimated from micro-level data from the CBS.
There is significant variation not only over time, but across provinces as well.
There is significant variation not only over time, but across provinces as well.
In short, strong evidence that the restrictive policy measures reduced excess mortality (= saved lives).
But the strength of the effects of the restrictive measures declined over time, with successive COVID-19 waves and the rollout of vaccination.
But the strength of the effects of the restrictive measures declined over time, with successive COVID-19 waves and the rollout of vaccination.
March 31, 2025 at 8:58 AM
In short, strong evidence that the restrictive policy measures reduced excess mortality (= saved lives).
But the strength of the effects of the restrictive measures declined over time, with successive COVID-19 waves and the rollout of vaccination.
But the strength of the effects of the restrictive measures declined over time, with successive COVID-19 waves and the rollout of vaccination.
Five years after COVID-19, the question about the impact of the policies introduced to fight the pandemic is still unsettled.
In a new paper, we evaluate the effect of the policy measures on mortality in The Netherlands for the period 2020-2022.
What do we find?
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...
In a new paper, we evaluate the effect of the policy measures on mortality in The Netherlands for the period 2020-2022.
What do we find?
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...
March 31, 2025 at 8:54 AM
Five years after COVID-19, the question about the impact of the policies introduced to fight the pandemic is still unsettled.
In a new paper, we evaluate the effect of the policy measures on mortality in The Netherlands for the period 2020-2022.
What do we find?
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...
In a new paper, we evaluate the effect of the policy measures on mortality in The Netherlands for the period 2020-2022.
What do we find?
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...
unfortunately the ESS doesn't have a lib/progr-auth/cons item. But to the extent that immigration attitudes proxy that, yes, the link is much stronger (and consistent) across Europe.
March 14, 2025 at 9:33 AM
unfortunately the ESS doesn't have a lib/progr-auth/cons item. But to the extent that immigration attitudes proxy that, yes, the link is much stronger (and consistent) across Europe.
Thank you, Francesco!
Yes! Because the links are non-linear, it's not easy to quantify the dependence, but using the distance correlation coef, the relationship in 2023 is somewhat stronger than before. Still quite small in absolute terms (seen better when the y-axis runs for its full length).
Yes! Because the links are non-linear, it's not easy to quantify the dependence, but using the distance correlation coef, the relationship in 2023 is somewhat stronger than before. Still quite small in absolute terms (seen better when the y-axis runs for its full length).
March 14, 2025 at 9:27 AM
Thank you, Francesco!
Yes! Because the links are non-linear, it's not easy to quantify the dependence, but using the distance correlation coef, the relationship in 2023 is somewhat stronger than before. Still quite small in absolute terms (seen better when the y-axis runs for its full length).
Yes! Because the links are non-linear, it's not easy to quantify the dependence, but using the distance correlation coef, the relationship in 2023 is somewhat stronger than before. Still quite small in absolute terms (seen better when the y-axis runs for its full length).
Th app anonyms.shinyapps.io/EUattitudes/
Choose from:
- 2 dataset (ESS and Eurobarometer)
- 10 indicators of EU attitudes
- 4 political/policy attitudes
- 2002-2024
- all EU+ countries
Customisable, print-ready graphs. Optimized for large screens.
Enjoy and share the insight you uncover!
Choose from:
- 2 dataset (ESS and Eurobarometer)
- 10 indicators of EU attitudes
- 4 political/policy attitudes
- 2002-2024
- all EU+ countries
Customisable, print-ready graphs. Optimized for large screens.
Enjoy and share the insight you uncover!
March 14, 2025 at 8:56 AM
Th app anonyms.shinyapps.io/EUattitudes/
Choose from:
- 2 dataset (ESS and Eurobarometer)
- 10 indicators of EU attitudes
- 4 political/policy attitudes
- 2002-2024
- all EU+ countries
Customisable, print-ready graphs. Optimized for large screens.
Enjoy and share the insight you uncover!
Choose from:
- 2 dataset (ESS and Eurobarometer)
- 10 indicators of EU attitudes
- 4 political/policy attitudes
- 2002-2024
- all EU+ countries
Customisable, print-ready graphs. Optimized for large screens.
Enjoy and share the insight you uncover!
New version of the paper is here: osf.io/preprints/os.... All major results hold up: EU support highest at moderate left (no horseshoe-shaped link with LR), strong link with immigration preferences, weak link with gay rights, no link with redistribution pref-s.
See how the link with LR has changed:
See how the link with LR has changed:
March 14, 2025 at 8:50 AM
New version of the paper is here: osf.io/preprints/os.... All major results hold up: EU support highest at moderate left (no horseshoe-shaped link with LR), strong link with immigration preferences, weak link with gay rights, no link with redistribution pref-s.
See how the link with LR has changed:
See how the link with LR has changed:
How do attitudes to 🇪🇺 European integration relate to political ideology and policy preferences?
A major update of my study:
- I added the latest 2023 ESS data for citizens and 2024 CHES data for parties
- I built an app to explore these relationships across datasets, indicators, years & countries
A major update of my study:
- I added the latest 2023 ESS data for citizens and 2024 CHES data for parties
- I built an app to explore these relationships across datasets, indicators, years & countries
March 14, 2025 at 8:46 AM
How do attitudes to 🇪🇺 European integration relate to political ideology and policy preferences?
A major update of my study:
- I added the latest 2023 ESS data for citizens and 2024 CHES data for parties
- I built an app to explore these relationships across datasets, indicators, years & countries
A major update of my study:
- I added the latest 2023 ESS data for citizens and 2024 CHES data for parties
- I built an app to explore these relationships across datasets, indicators, years & countries
What are the implications? In high-stakes conflicts, we will attribute much more causal power and responsibility for a counternormative (bad) outcome to the side we oppose compared to the side we support, even when the situations are exactly the same.
March 11, 2025 at 10:48 AM
What are the implications? In high-stakes conflicts, we will attribute much more causal power and responsibility for a counternormative (bad) outcome to the side we oppose compared to the side we support, even when the situations are exactly the same.
when we label the two sides Russian and Ukrainian, judgements of causal power and responsibility are affected very strongly by ingroup support [we run the experiment in Poland], while the details of the causal structure do not matter any more.
March 11, 2025 at 10:41 AM
when we label the two sides Russian and Ukrainian, judgements of causal power and responsibility are affected very strongly by ingroup support [we run the experiment in Poland], while the details of the causal structure do not matter any more.
Are you doing research on legitimacy, crises, and multilevel governance? Then apply to our panel at the International Public Policy Conference in July 2025 (Chiang Mai, Thailand 🇹🇭)! Papers on different kinds of crises and regions of the world are welcome!
www.ippapublicpolicy.org/conference/i...
www.ippapublicpolicy.org/conference/i...
January 23, 2025 at 12:39 PM
Are you doing research on legitimacy, crises, and multilevel governance? Then apply to our panel at the International Public Policy Conference in July 2025 (Chiang Mai, Thailand 🇹🇭)! Papers on different kinds of crises and regions of the world are welcome!
www.ippapublicpolicy.org/conference/i...
www.ippapublicpolicy.org/conference/i...
This is a figure from the appendix showing excess mortality per country of origin of the immigrants. There is a big puzzle there: CEE immigrants have much lower excess mortality than anyone else in 🇳🇱. But in the CEE countries, COVID-19 excess mortality was some of the highest in the world. How come?
December 17, 2024 at 8:50 AM
This is a figure from the appendix showing excess mortality per country of origin of the immigrants. There is a big puzzle there: CEE immigrants have much lower excess mortality than anyone else in 🇳🇱. But in the CEE countries, COVID-19 excess mortality was some of the highest in the world. How come?
Remember COVID-19? We have a new article estimating excess mortality in The Netherlands based on register data from @cbsstatistiek.bsky.social.
Overall, we find 8.9% excess deaths in 2020 and 8.5% in 2021.
However, for first generation immigrants, excess mortality was much higher at 15% and 18%.
Overall, we find 8.9% excess deaths in 2020 and 8.5% in 2021.
However, for first generation immigrants, excess mortality was much higher at 15% and 18%.
December 17, 2024 at 8:37 AM
Remember COVID-19? We have a new article estimating excess mortality in The Netherlands based on register data from @cbsstatistiek.bsky.social.
Overall, we find 8.9% excess deaths in 2020 and 8.5% in 2021.
However, for first generation immigrants, excess mortality was much higher at 15% and 18%.
Overall, we find 8.9% excess deaths in 2020 and 8.5% in 2021.
However, for first generation immigrants, excess mortality was much higher at 15% and 18%.
Tomorrow (Friday, 6 December) at 15.00 CET I will have a talk at the #HotPoliticsLab at the University of Amsterdam! I will introduce a new project on *causal motivated reasoning*.
You can join in the Common Room (REC-B9.22) of UvA or online via shorturl.at/L2VaV.
You can join in the Common Room (REC-B9.22) of UvA or online via shorturl.at/L2VaV.
December 5, 2024 at 2:11 PM
Tomorrow (Friday, 6 December) at 15.00 CET I will have a talk at the #HotPoliticsLab at the University of Amsterdam! I will introduce a new project on *causal motivated reasoning*.
You can join in the Common Room (REC-B9.22) of UvA or online via shorturl.at/L2VaV.
You can join in the Common Room (REC-B9.22) of UvA or online via shorturl.at/L2VaV.