DSB
@dsb000.bsky.social
Same story from the EV side. However I suspect there’s probably some nuance related to East Africa (that is, Ethiopia) investing in hydro.
It’s interesting to see the rise simultaneous and enabling EVs - a combo no one thought was realistic even 2-3 years ago.
It’s interesting to see the rise simultaneous and enabling EVs - a combo no one thought was realistic even 2-3 years ago.
December 31, 2025 at 11:22 PM
Same story from the EV side. However I suspect there’s probably some nuance related to East Africa (that is, Ethiopia) investing in hydro.
It’s interesting to see the rise simultaneous and enabling EVs - a combo no one thought was realistic even 2-3 years ago.
It’s interesting to see the rise simultaneous and enabling EVs - a combo no one thought was realistic even 2-3 years ago.
Is part of it the re-cozying with Trump as well? The DOGE-initial rupture-sales crash all coincided pretty closely in H1.
December 31, 2025 at 10:46 PM
Is part of it the re-cozying with Trump as well? The DOGE-initial rupture-sales crash all coincided pretty closely in H1.
US EV share is obviously pathetic by global standards. That said, it’s heartening that EV share didn’t drop *that* much YoY. Half the US market is dominated by a now-tarnished Tesla and policy added countless headwinds; only dropping 2pp YoY is better than Germany or New Zealand after milder changes
December 29, 2025 at 4:26 PM
US EV share is obviously pathetic by global standards. That said, it’s heartening that EV share didn’t drop *that* much YoY. Half the US market is dominated by a now-tarnished Tesla and policy added countless headwinds; only dropping 2pp YoY is better than Germany or New Zealand after milder changes
The machinery quotes are really interesting, and I’d love to get a peek at what’s actually happening there. Is it a bump from post-tariff near-shoring? Or is it from chip manufacturing? Continued construction growth? Or something else?
December 29, 2025 at 4:01 PM
The machinery quotes are really interesting, and I’d love to get a peek at what’s actually happening there. Is it a bump from post-tariff near-shoring? Or is it from chip manufacturing? Continued construction growth? Or something else?
I think it’s two separate things: people who think there were widespread civilian casualties (based on the civ vehicles), and people who think you shouldn’t attack retreating troops. I was in the first camp before I actually read into it, and I think lots see the image and assume as well.
December 29, 2025 at 1:24 AM
I think it’s two separate things: people who think there were widespread civilian casualties (based on the civ vehicles), and people who think you shouldn’t attack retreating troops. I was in the first camp before I actually read into it, and I think lots see the image and assume as well.
Even 2-3 years ago, the assumption was that infrastructure was an obstacle to EV uptake in emerging markets. But it turns out, those governments will invest a lot to kick a foreign oil dependence! It’s cellphones leapfrogging landlines in Africa, but more dramatic.
December 29, 2025 at 1:17 AM
Even 2-3 years ago, the assumption was that infrastructure was an obstacle to EV uptake in emerging markets. But it turns out, those governments will invest a lot to kick a foreign oil dependence! It’s cellphones leapfrogging landlines in Africa, but more dramatic.
Tbh the big issue is developing world. Everyone sort of priced in “peak oil” in the US and Europe, but the real head-spinning is because countries like Ethiopia would rather spend their dollars and Euros once on solar/EVs rather than oil and natural gas
December 29, 2025 at 1:14 AM
Tbh the big issue is developing world. Everyone sort of priced in “peak oil” in the US and Europe, but the real head-spinning is because countries like Ethiopia would rather spend their dollars and Euros once on solar/EVs rather than oil and natural gas
"Collapse" is definitely harsh on Gorbachev, but it treats Yeltsin as the politician with more responsibility for the collapse.
There's a line in there that stuck with me, when he asks the US for more financial aid. Bush asks where it went, G says "money tends to disappear around here."
There's a line in there that stuck with me, when he asks the US for more financial aid. Bush asks where it went, G says "money tends to disappear around here."
December 28, 2025 at 2:18 AM
"Collapse" is definitely harsh on Gorbachev, but it treats Yeltsin as the politician with more responsibility for the collapse.
There's a line in there that stuck with me, when he asks the US for more financial aid. Bush asks where it went, G says "money tends to disappear around here."
There's a line in there that stuck with me, when he asks the US for more financial aid. Bush asks where it went, G says "money tends to disappear around here."
The Kilwa Sultanate, thinking the Tsetse fly made them immune to nomadic barbarian invaders, when the Portuguese arrive:
December 26, 2025 at 8:49 PM
The Kilwa Sultanate, thinking the Tsetse fly made them immune to nomadic barbarian invaders, when the Portuguese arrive:
Just read “outsourcing Empire” this week on the topic, and it’s really fascinating how *flexible* the company states were. Completely content to swear fealty to the Mughals one day and subjugate a smaller power the next!
December 26, 2025 at 8:46 PM
Just read “outsourcing Empire” this week on the topic, and it’s really fascinating how *flexible* the company states were. Completely content to swear fealty to the Mughals one day and subjugate a smaller power the next!
German OEMs are getting hit really hard from Chinese competition, both in China and in Europe. Toyota specifically is doing decently in China, but their key market is the USA which is completely insulated from both EV and China pressures.
December 24, 2025 at 7:29 PM
German OEMs are getting hit really hard from Chinese competition, both in China and in Europe. Toyota specifically is doing decently in China, but their key market is the USA which is completely insulated from both EV and China pressures.
The US market (and increasingly the EU market) certainly are driven towards bigger vehicles for higher margins, but that doesn't really hold true for EVs. Consumers want more spacious vehicles, but the margins get compressed with EVs because batteries are too expensive outside of China.
December 24, 2025 at 12:07 AM
The US market (and increasingly the EU market) certainly are driven towards bigger vehicles for higher margins, but that doesn't really hold true for EVs. Consumers want more spacious vehicles, but the margins get compressed with EVs because batteries are too expensive outside of China.
It looks like this might correlate better with violent crime rates, but again it's the same issue. Part of it's memory and perception – a decade of serial killers/homicides makes people get sick of it.
December 24, 2025 at 12:04 AM
It looks like this might correlate better with violent crime rates, but again it's the same issue. Part of it's memory and perception – a decade of serial killers/homicides makes people get sick of it.
I won’t fault Ford for trying an EV pickup, but I think it’s certainly possible to criticize the design decisions that led to Model E being so horrifically unprofitable (NMC batteries? 100 kWh batteries? Focusing on “work” vehicles instead of premium pickup buyers?)
December 23, 2025 at 10:01 PM
I won’t fault Ford for trying an EV pickup, but I think it’s certainly possible to criticize the design decisions that led to Model E being so horrifically unprofitable (NMC batteries? 100 kWh batteries? Focusing on “work” vehicles instead of premium pickup buyers?)
I think there’s some mistakes that GM/F that are only obvious in retrospect: in ~2020, range was the name of the game rather than price, and no one *really* knew how EV pickups would sell.
That doesn’t forgive other shortfalls like terrible cost discipline and outdated tech, though.
That doesn’t forgive other shortfalls like terrible cost discipline and outdated tech, though.
December 23, 2025 at 9:59 PM
I think there’s some mistakes that GM/F that are only obvious in retrospect: in ~2020, range was the name of the game rather than price, and no one *really* knew how EV pickups would sell.
That doesn’t forgive other shortfalls like terrible cost discipline and outdated tech, though.
That doesn’t forgive other shortfalls like terrible cost discipline and outdated tech, though.
And even the unrepentant Nazis had their reputations rehabilitated postwar: to the point where Americans are more likely to associate Henry Ford as “antisemitic pro-Hitler automaker” than Ferdinand Porsche.
December 23, 2025 at 3:45 AM
And even the unrepentant Nazis had their reputations rehabilitated postwar: to the point where Americans are more likely to associate Henry Ford as “antisemitic pro-Hitler automaker” than Ferdinand Porsche.
A big part of it is what the academics went on to do. British academics cracked Enigma; Jewish scientists created the Atomic Bomb. German scientists made failed wunderwaffe and tanks that got stuck in the mud.
December 23, 2025 at 3:43 AM
A big part of it is what the academics went on to do. British academics cracked Enigma; Jewish scientists created the Atomic Bomb. German scientists made failed wunderwaffe and tanks that got stuck in the mud.
“Are you sure you don’t want to add cigarettes to your shopping list? 90% of your previous lists had them!”
December 22, 2025 at 7:33 PM
“Are you sure you don’t want to add cigarettes to your shopping list? 90% of your previous lists had them!”
PA government cites ~20k out of 5.5mn jobs are directly employed in mining/quarrying/O&G extraction. That's obviously too low (doesn't include suppliers, gas station workers, construction workers, transport, etc), but all industry groups very consciously overestimate their economic impact.
December 21, 2025 at 1:51 AM
PA government cites ~20k out of 5.5mn jobs are directly employed in mining/quarrying/O&G extraction. That's obviously too low (doesn't include suppliers, gas station workers, construction workers, transport, etc), but all industry groups very consciously overestimate their economic impact.
We're going to win 2026 and 2028, there's no doubt; but nothing terrifies me more than the prospect of having an American Merz or Starmer in 2029. Without boldness to fix the many problems we'll have in 2029, there will be a new Trump, or Farage, or Le Pen.
December 21, 2025 at 1:43 AM
We're going to win 2026 and 2028, there's no doubt; but nothing terrifies me more than the prospect of having an American Merz or Starmer in 2029. Without boldness to fix the many problems we'll have in 2029, there will be a new Trump, or Farage, or Le Pen.
Falklands where both sides are somehow Argentina
December 17, 2025 at 8:18 PM
Falklands where both sides are somehow Argentina
It's also just hard to transition into a new role of equivalent prominence after a show like that. It's almost always the secondary characters: after Star Wars, you'd rather be Harrison Ford than Mark Hamill. For SV, Kumail Nanjani was the only one who really blew up.
December 16, 2025 at 2:35 PM
It's also just hard to transition into a new role of equivalent prominence after a show like that. It's almost always the secondary characters: after Star Wars, you'd rather be Harrison Ford than Mark Hamill. For SV, Kumail Nanjani was the only one who really blew up.
In 2023, imagine trying to predict that some of the top issues of 2025 would be tariffs, potential war with Venezuela, mass deportations, and the Epstein files. Or that JD Vance would be VP, or that Elon Musk would have gutted the Federal Government. We're in year 1; god only knows what 4 will be
December 16, 2025 at 5:20 AM
In 2023, imagine trying to predict that some of the top issues of 2025 would be tariffs, potential war with Venezuela, mass deportations, and the Epstein files. Or that JD Vance would be VP, or that Elon Musk would have gutted the Federal Government. We're in year 1; god only knows what 4 will be
Letting Chinese cars into America is an existential threat for the entire auto industry, because America is the profit center for every OEM in Europe, Japan, Korea and the US. So they all fight it tooth and nail, especially as China and the EU get harder to compete in thanks to Chinese players
December 14, 2025 at 7:23 PM
Letting Chinese cars into America is an existential threat for the entire auto industry, because America is the profit center for every OEM in Europe, Japan, Korea and the US. So they all fight it tooth and nail, especially as China and the EU get harder to compete in thanks to Chinese players
All of that lobbying capacity towards “please Mr President don’t ever make me build an electric vehicle” is getting redirected towards “please Mr President don’t let consumers taste the forbidden fruit of Chinese cars”
December 14, 2025 at 7:21 PM
All of that lobbying capacity towards “please Mr President don’t ever make me build an electric vehicle” is getting redirected towards “please Mr President don’t let consumers taste the forbidden fruit of Chinese cars”