Dryfly
@dryfly.bsky.social
Ya… that guy.
Oh, almost forgot … ACT LOCAL!!! It’s the people around us who will ‘save us all’
Oh, almost forgot … ACT LOCAL!!! It’s the people around us who will ‘save us all’
And of course it ignores the effects of the black market which is likely THE ONLY sector of economy likely to benefit/grow
It’s why I keep asking ppl in ‘the region’ wtf is going on in black market wrt street exchange rates AND prices for goods. Both in Russia and their near abroad, lot matters IMO
It’s why I keep asking ppl in ‘the region’ wtf is going on in black market wrt street exchange rates AND prices for goods. Both in Russia and their near abroad, lot matters IMO
November 26, 2025 at 7:43 PM
And of course it ignores the effects of the black market which is likely THE ONLY sector of economy likely to benefit/grow
It’s why I keep asking ppl in ‘the region’ wtf is going on in black market wrt street exchange rates AND prices for goods. Both in Russia and their near abroad, lot matters IMO
It’s why I keep asking ppl in ‘the region’ wtf is going on in black market wrt street exchange rates AND prices for goods. Both in Russia and their near abroad, lot matters IMO
Will a stronger exchange rate make a difference? Yes and no. It will make a difference in that it will allow Russians to buy imports cheaper in rubles but it will put even greater squeeze on domestic producers trying to compete w/ those imports. Strong currencies kill domestic producers
3/N
3/N
November 26, 2025 at 7:38 PM
Will a stronger exchange rate make a difference? Yes and no. It will make a difference in that it will allow Russians to buy imports cheaper in rubles but it will put even greater squeeze on domestic producers trying to compete w/ those imports. Strong currencies kill domestic producers
3/N
3/N
Inflation is always too much money chasing too few products to buy w/ that money. So for a Russian cons you have both … more money in circulation AND fewer goods to buy EXCEPT for import
So that’s why it appear imports are the cause (but its a symptom not the cause)
2/N
So that’s why it appear imports are the cause (but its a symptom not the cause)
2/N
November 26, 2025 at 7:33 PM
Inflation is always too much money chasing too few products to buy w/ that money. So for a Russian cons you have both … more money in circulation AND fewer goods to buy EXCEPT for import
So that’s why it appear imports are the cause (but its a symptom not the cause)
2/N
So that’s why it appear imports are the cause (but its a symptom not the cause)
2/N
I think he’s right but doesn’t fully flush out the problem. Imports are where price inflation is realized (seen) but the cause is (1) too much money supply injected into economy from spending on war and (2) shrinkage of domestic production of consumer goods…
1/N
1/N
November 26, 2025 at 7:29 PM
I think he’s right but doesn’t fully flush out the problem. Imports are where price inflation is realized (seen) but the cause is (1) too much money supply injected into economy from spending on war and (2) shrinkage of domestic production of consumer goods…
1/N
1/N
She said the Chinese translation for the English words ‘bribe’ and ‘sales commission’ is basically the same thing. Conceptually to them no different
Russia is as bad or worse
Russia is as bad or worse
November 26, 2025 at 7:00 PM
She said the Chinese translation for the English words ‘bribe’ and ‘sales commission’ is basically the same thing. Conceptually to them no different
Russia is as bad or worse
Russia is as bad or worse
One other trivia - I worked w/ a young sales person from China. She was the ‘international sales manager’ for a privately held mfgr. She said they try to do as much int’l business as they can because domestic Chinese business is so corrupt…
November 26, 2025 at 6:56 PM
One other trivia - I worked w/ a young sales person from China. She was the ‘international sales manager’ for a privately held mfgr. She said they try to do as much int’l business as they can because domestic Chinese business is so corrupt…
Low salaries are fixable from government perspective… just allow police to extract payment from ‘criminals’ … ie population
Ppl will pay to be allowed to work for state for free not unlike how in US poor pay at 5 Star restaurants often don’t discourage waiters applying … the tips can be crazy
Ppl will pay to be allowed to work for state for free not unlike how in US poor pay at 5 Star restaurants often don’t discourage waiters applying … the tips can be crazy
November 26, 2025 at 6:53 PM
Low salaries are fixable from government perspective… just allow police to extract payment from ‘criminals’ … ie population
Ppl will pay to be allowed to work for state for free not unlike how in US poor pay at 5 Star restaurants often don’t discourage waiters applying … the tips can be crazy
Ppl will pay to be allowed to work for state for free not unlike how in US poor pay at 5 Star restaurants often don’t discourage waiters applying … the tips can be crazy
Ya but that’s an easy fix for Putin cartel / it’s cool just give us a cut
Something weird is going on on
Something weird is going on on
November 26, 2025 at 6:47 PM
Ya but that’s an easy fix for Putin cartel / it’s cool just give us a cut
Something weird is going on on
Something weird is going on on
In 1998 a lot of their debt was denominated in a currency other than rubles OR the buyers of debt were international… defaulting much more problematic
Today most of their debt denominated in rubles and held by Russian institutions so easier to ‘print and pay off’ instead of defaulting
Today most of their debt denominated in rubles and held by Russian institutions so easier to ‘print and pay off’ instead of defaulting
November 25, 2025 at 4:08 AM
In 1998 a lot of their debt was denominated in a currency other than rubles OR the buyers of debt were international… defaulting much more problematic
Today most of their debt denominated in rubles and held by Russian institutions so easier to ‘print and pay off’ instead of defaulting
Today most of their debt denominated in rubles and held by Russian institutions so easier to ‘print and pay off’ instead of defaulting
Can you explain what happened? I get the ‘penalty’ part but what were they trying to pull off? TIA
November 25, 2025 at 3:53 AM
Can you explain what happened? I get the ‘penalty’ part but what were they trying to pull off? TIA
It doesn’t trade openly on world forex markets - only in Moscow. Neither China nor India eve want it. Russia recently floated yuan denominated bonds because so few foreign buyers would buy them in rubles
Official ruble exchange rate is fictional
Official ruble exchange rate is fictional
November 25, 2025 at 3:48 AM
It doesn’t trade openly on world forex markets - only in Moscow. Neither China nor India eve want it. Russia recently floated yuan denominated bonds because so few foreign buyers would buy them in rubles
Official ruble exchange rate is fictional
Official ruble exchange rate is fictional
Oligarchs who moved money from $/€ to rubles … they got more rubles
November 24, 2025 at 6:44 PM
Oligarchs who moved money from $/€ to rubles … they got more rubles
If they really are pushing something like 40% of GDP into their military industrial complex then they will need something like a minimum of 40% tax to just cover that if they want to sterilize the increased money supply. More to cover other state spending… or lots of savings (buying state bonds)
November 21, 2025 at 3:33 AM
If they really are pushing something like 40% of GDP into their military industrial complex then they will need something like a minimum of 40% tax to just cover that if they want to sterilize the increased money supply. More to cover other state spending… or lots of savings (buying state bonds)
Are there ways Russia could tame inflation while building weapons to burn in Ukraine? Sure -‘sterilize’ the excess money created by MIC either by draconian taxation or ‘forced’ savings. Neither are popular w/ ‘people’
Prune is right to laugh IMO
Prune is right to laugh IMO
November 21, 2025 at 3:27 AM
Are there ways Russia could tame inflation while building weapons to burn in Ukraine? Sure -‘sterilize’ the excess money created by MIC either by draconian taxation or ‘forced’ savings. Neither are popular w/ ‘people’
Prune is right to laugh IMO
Prune is right to laugh IMO
It is the quintessential ’dig hole fill hole’ model described in classical keynesian economics and works GREAT in a deflation (like a depression) but if inflation is already running wild it’s pouring gasoline on a brush fire
November 21, 2025 at 3:23 AM
It is the quintessential ’dig hole fill hole’ model described in classical keynesian economics and works GREAT in a deflation (like a depression) but if inflation is already running wild it’s pouring gasoline on a brush fire
Not if you are pumping huge amounts of money into building weapons you then get blown up in Ukraine… the money to make those weapons then recycles through economy chasing fewer consumer goods (squeezed out by military mfg)
More rubles chasing fewer actual goods is the very definition of ‘inflation’
More rubles chasing fewer actual goods is the very definition of ‘inflation’
November 21, 2025 at 3:20 AM
Not if you are pumping huge amounts of money into building weapons you then get blown up in Ukraine… the money to make those weapons then recycles through economy chasing fewer consumer goods (squeezed out by military mfg)
More rubles chasing fewer actual goods is the very definition of ‘inflation’
More rubles chasing fewer actual goods is the very definition of ‘inflation’
On a different level it’s also an indication the state knows it’s F’ed … allows black market activities because SOEs can no longer meet population needs and to deny access totally is a recipe for uprising
Plus elites can often get a cut - double plus good!
Plus elites can often get a cut - double plus good!
November 21, 2025 at 3:08 AM
On a different level it’s also an indication the state knows it’s F’ed … allows black market activities because SOEs can no longer meet population needs and to deny access totally is a recipe for uprising
Plus elites can often get a cut - double plus good!
Plus elites can often get a cut - double plus good!
Black markets are huge threats to state power - and some of the best indicators sh!ts gettin’ real
Bring it!
Bring it!
November 21, 2025 at 3:05 AM
Black markets are huge threats to state power - and some of the best indicators sh!ts gettin’ real
Bring it!
Bring it!
When I read ‘execution’ I imagined this …
a picture of a ladder that says mnf on the top
ALT: a picture of a ladder that says mnf on the top
media.tenor.com
November 11, 2025 at 8:08 PM
When I read ‘execution’ I imagined this …
These two posts … 👆 and 👇 are examples of how two problems can produce a solution (ie lonely Russian widows and wild boar ruts)
bsky.app/profile/prun...
bsky.app/profile/prun...
Meanwhile in Russia…
“Russian women have begun to complain to psychologists more often about the lack of a significant other.”
🤨
www.mk.ru/social/2025/...
“Russian women have begun to complain to psychologists more often about the lack of a significant other.”
🤨
www.mk.ru/social/2025/...
November 11, 2025 at 8:04 PM
These two posts … 👆 and 👇 are examples of how two problems can produce a solution (ie lonely Russian widows and wild boar ruts)
bsky.app/profile/prun...
bsky.app/profile/prun...
They could make it so tomorrow… RMOF just declare it so and make it ‘illegal’ for banks to trade at any other exchange rate. USSR did similar - set firm official exchange rates
Of course black market would have other ideas…
Of course black market would have other ideas…
November 1, 2025 at 4:12 AM
They could make it so tomorrow… RMOF just declare it so and make it ‘illegal’ for banks to trade at any other exchange rate. USSR did similar - set firm official exchange rates
Of course black market would have other ideas…
Of course black market would have other ideas…
Ppl suggest UAE (Dubai) or Qatar but no way they are safe there if a victorious west demands they be turned over
And these ppl aren’t mentally prepared for a life on the run in jungles of South America or Africa
And these ppl aren’t mentally prepared for a life on the run in jungles of South America or Africa
October 30, 2025 at 3:03 AM
Ppl suggest UAE (Dubai) or Qatar but no way they are safe there if a victorious west demands they be turned over
And these ppl aren’t mentally prepared for a life on the run in jungles of South America or Africa
And these ppl aren’t mentally prepared for a life on the run in jungles of South America or Africa
In today’s world - there is nowhere they would be safe. Not really. Not even ben China
October 30, 2025 at 3:01 AM
In today’s world - there is nowhere they would be safe. Not really. Not even ben China