I will miss your excellent columns. I hope to be reading or hearing your thoughts elsewhere. Best wishes for whatever is next.

It’s a question of revealed preferences and not what people may be saying.

Eventually Trump will announce a bundle of great deals with many nations allowing for tariffs to be greatly reduced. Upon inspection they will have little substance. For example, I can imagine France agreeing to buy more US cheese and wine.

Excellent article. Issues clearly expressed. Thank you!

Thank you, Justin. A coherent, thoughtful piece as always. I do believe the uncertainty in the future caused by the administration is the biggest risk to the economy.

Much of the economic data that is collected measures the factors in the aggregate. What we’ve been learning is that distributional effects are important to the way people experience the economy.

The definition of the unemployment rate is clear and has been in use for years. Many probably don’t know the details and are surprised by them. See full report at BLS.

I am more and more convinced that the turmoil and uncertainty created by the current administration will lead to an economic downturn. It is difficult for companies to invest and hire when the future environment is unusually uncertain.

I’ve asked myself what else the administration could have done to combat inflation. Other than crickets, I’ve contemplated a temporary, targeted sales tax, which would be incredibly unpopular. If we can’t develop better tools then I guess we need better and more targeted relief.