Dan Pomerantz
@dpomerantz.bsky.social
Look Mamdani is a Socialist but he isn’t stupid! His political instincts are much more like AOC than Rashida Tlaib!
December 5, 2025 at 11:49 PM
Look Mamdani is a Socialist but he isn’t stupid! His political instincts are much more like AOC than Rashida Tlaib!
I genuinely wouldn’t be surprised if the RGV “Fajita Strips” snap back hard to margins more like 2020 Biden (not the old historical margins but still good) and put into play GOP seats like TX-15 and even TX-23. Still terrible they’re cracking out Doggett and Green and TX-32!
December 5, 2025 at 2:30 AM
I genuinely wouldn’t be surprised if the RGV “Fajita Strips” snap back hard to margins more like 2020 Biden (not the old historical margins but still good) and put into play GOP seats like TX-15 and even TX-23. Still terrible they’re cracking out Doggett and Green and TX-32!
Williamson has a lot more wealthy suburbanites that are more prone to flip. Let’s see if that is the offset for Behn we are looking for!
December 3, 2025 at 1:41 AM
Williamson has a lot more wealthy suburbanites that are more prone to flip. Let’s see if that is the offset for Behn we are looking for!
I’d still say the likeliest outcome is Epps less than 5… but the results so far show EXACTLY why the GOP was freaking out about this race! This damn near catastrophic for the GOP!
December 3, 2025 at 1:22 AM
I’d still say the likeliest outcome is Epps less than 5… but the results so far show EXACTLY why the GOP was freaking out about this race! This damn near catastrophic for the GOP!
Even if Eday cuts those margins in half, turnout ratios between these precincts and the Nashville precincts will be key!
December 3, 2025 at 1:10 AM
Even if Eday cuts those margins in half, turnout ratios between these precincts and the Nashville precincts will be key!
It’s not just margin, it’s turnout. I’m hoping that’s low turnout relative to college precincts and the winemom precincts!
December 3, 2025 at 1:08 AM
It’s not just margin, it’s turnout. I’m hoping that’s low turnout relative to college precincts and the winemom precincts!
FYI all this incredible info has been aggregated by Bolts & @taniel.bsky.social! Truly does God’s Work for Informing Political Junkies!
are you all about Tennessee tonight?
here are three other elections you should keep an eye on:
1️⃣ a flip opportunity for Dems in Georgia:
here are three other elections you should keep an eye on:
1️⃣ a flip opportunity for Dems in Georgia:
Here's one office Dems could flip on Tuesday.
(No, it's not in TN!)
The Republican mayor of Roswell, a Georgia city of 90K, finished just one percentage point ahead of his Dem challenger on November 4. The runoff is in a few days.
One of my Dec elections to watch: boltsmag.org/whats-on-the...
(No, it's not in TN!)
The Republican mayor of Roswell, a Georgia city of 90K, finished just one percentage point ahead of his Dem challenger on November 4. The runoff is in a few days.
One of my Dec elections to watch: boltsmag.org/whats-on-the...
December 2, 2025 at 11:58 PM
FYI all this incredible info has been aggregated by Bolts & @taniel.bsky.social! Truly does God’s Work for Informing Political Junkies!
@ericmgarcia.bsky.social This for the REAL election sickos 😂. But like actually you are an Election Sicko as far as political journalists go! Also as Pediatric Biochemical Geneticist & Physician Scientist, Thank You for Your Advocacy for the Autism/ Neurodivergent community!
December 2, 2025 at 11:35 PM
@ericmgarcia.bsky.social This for the REAL election sickos 😂. But like actually you are an Election Sicko as far as political journalists go! Also as Pediatric Biochemical Geneticist & Physician Scientist, Thank You for Your Advocacy for the Autism/ Neurodivergent community!
7PM CST/ 8PM EST
December 2, 2025 at 10:56 PM
7PM CST/ 8PM EST
Please! The real sickos are following the Jersey City Mayoral Runoff lol 😂
December 2, 2025 at 10:32 PM
Please! The real sickos are following the Jersey City Mayoral Runoff lol 😂
A neat little tidbit is that while the sample size of federal special elections is much smaller than that of the state special elections, the Pro-Dem swing is about 5.5 points greater (18 points for Fed races vs 12.7 for State Races). In fact, if the swing in TN-07 matches that of FL-06, Behn wins!
December 2, 2025 at 12:49 AM
A neat little tidbit is that while the sample size of federal special elections is much smaller than that of the state special elections, the Pro-Dem swing is about 5.5 points greater (18 points for Fed races vs 12.7 for State Races). In fact, if the swing in TN-07 matches that of FL-06, Behn wins!
The Downballot's special elections Big Board for the 2025-26 cycle
docs.google.com
December 2, 2025 at 12:46 AM
Yeah I’m starting to wonder if Texas’s congressional map becomes a dummymander based on them overreaching with Latino 2024 gains!
November 29, 2025 at 11:20 PM
Yeah I’m starting to wonder if Texas’s congressional map becomes a dummymander based on them overreaching with Latino 2024 gains!
Yeah I think he’s as good as Steve Santarsiero, who would also be a great candidate in this environment. It’s gonna be a dog fight… but I’d rather be Bob Harvie than Fitz simply because of the environment!
November 28, 2025 at 11:45 PM
Yeah I think he’s as good as Steve Santarsiero, who would also be a great candidate in this environment. It’s gonna be a dog fight… but I’d rather be Bob Harvie than Fitz simply because of the environment!
I’d say it’s a true tossup, which has never been the case for Fitz (in 2018 I had his race as a tilt GOP/ Tossup. Every other year has been Likely GOP).
November 28, 2025 at 10:03 PM
I’d say it’s a true tossup, which has never been the case for Fitz (in 2018 I had his race as a tilt GOP/ Tossup. Every other year has been Likely GOP).
So I vote in this district and Fitzpatrick isn’t fried as he votes against OBBA. But he’s more vulnerable than he was in 2018. But the downballot ancestral GOP tradition in Central Bucks is imploding as Ancestral Dem Lower Bucks vote is holding well for Dems!
November 28, 2025 at 9:26 PM
So I vote in this district and Fitzpatrick isn’t fried as he votes against OBBA. But he’s more vulnerable than he was in 2018. But the downballot ancestral GOP tradition in Central Bucks is imploding as Ancestral Dem Lower Bucks vote is holding well for Dems!
I think if Behn wins this seat, it’ll be a bigger upset than Conor Lamb in rural SWPA in 18 as Behn is more lib-coded. I know this seat quite well from having lived there. Def some Blue Nashville & Purple Wealthy Suburbs, but a TON of Blood Red Rurals. For GOP to fight for this seat is catastrophic!
November 26, 2025 at 3:50 PM
I think if Behn wins this seat, it’ll be a bigger upset than Conor Lamb in rural SWPA in 18 as Behn is more lib-coded. I know this seat quite well from having lived there. Def some Blue Nashville & Purple Wealthy Suburbs, but a TON of Blood Red Rurals. For GOP to fight for this seat is catastrophic!
Eh it’s not quite there yet… but the trajectory is quite poor! He’s more like Bush II in 2005-2006 rather than 2007-2008.
November 24, 2025 at 1:27 AM
Eh it’s not quite there yet… but the trajectory is quite poor! He’s more like Bush II in 2005-2006 rather than 2007-2008.
Yeah unless there is an exogenous event akin to Dobbs or 9/11, I really struggle to see how GOP doesn’t get wiped out in 2026. Trump needs to stop tariffs, fully fund ACA credits, stop excess ICE raids AND have inflation improve to even have a chance of breaking even. But I expect most to continue!
November 23, 2025 at 11:31 PM
Yeah unless there is an exogenous event akin to Dobbs or 9/11, I really struggle to see how GOP doesn’t get wiped out in 2026. Trump needs to stop tariffs, fully fund ACA credits, stop excess ICE raids AND have inflation improve to even have a chance of breaking even. But I expect most to continue!
Catastrophic economy and inflation numbers and net negative on immigration! Unless he has an exogenous event akin to Dobbs or 9/11, GOP is getting crushed in 2026 midterms!
November 23, 2025 at 11:27 PM
Catastrophic economy and inflation numbers and net negative on immigration! Unless he has an exogenous event akin to Dobbs or 9/11, GOP is getting crushed in 2026 midterms!
AJ’s routes look more crisp than they have the past few games. AJ seems really amped up this game in a good way! Like Jalen has been off the past three games prior but AJ also wasn’t looking sharp either, unlike today!
November 23, 2025 at 9:46 PM
AJ’s routes look more crisp than they have the past few games. AJ seems really amped up this game in a good way! Like Jalen has been off the past three games prior but AJ also wasn’t looking sharp either, unlike today!
Like Vandy has been such 💩 at football for so long that for us to be able to make the playoffs would legit be the equivalent of winning the championship lol! Like our last good season was when James Franklin left for PSU lololololol
November 23, 2025 at 1:16 AM
Like Vandy has been such 💩 at football for so long that for us to be able to make the playoffs would legit be the equivalent of winning the championship lol! Like our last good season was when James Franklin left for PSU lololololol
Yeah I’m not even questioning you guys making it in! As Vandy Med Alum, I’m hoping the Dores get a bank shot to get in lol (Pretty much need Vandy to beat Tennessee and then have at least Georgia or Ole Miss- maybe both- to have a chance 😬).
November 23, 2025 at 1:03 AM
Yeah I’m not even questioning you guys making it in! As Vandy Med Alum, I’m hoping the Dores get a bank shot to get in lol (Pretty much need Vandy to beat Tennessee and then have at least Georgia or Ole Miss- maybe both- to have a chance 😬).
Evil ages people something fierce lol!
November 22, 2025 at 8:42 PM
Evil ages people something fierce lol!