Diana Paz García
@dpazgarcia.bsky.social
Feminist Political Scientist | Think Tanker at Brookings | Nonstate Armed Actors and Gender-based Violence | Views my own
9/ The US is stepping in—providing $7.6M for countering illegal mining & port security.
But Ecuador needs long-term, holistic solutions—not just military force.
Read our full analysis 👉 www.brookings.edu/articles/ecu...
But Ecuador needs long-term, holistic solutions—not just military force.
Read our full analysis 👉 www.brookings.edu/articles/ecu...
Ecuador’s elections, organized crime, and security challenges
As Ecuadorians head to the polls on February 9, security and criminal violence have overshadowed other issues.
www.brookings.edu
February 4, 2025 at 8:46 PM
9/ The US is stepping in—providing $7.6M for countering illegal mining & port security.
But Ecuador needs long-term, holistic solutions—not just military force.
Read our full analysis 👉 www.brookings.edu/articles/ecu...
But Ecuador needs long-term, holistic solutions—not just military force.
Read our full analysis 👉 www.brookings.edu/articles/ecu...
8/ To break the cycle, Ecuador must:
✅ Move beyond HVT—dismantle mid-level crime structures
✅ Expand focus beyond cocaine—crack down on extortion & illegal mining,
✅ Strengthen judicial independence & purge corruption
✅ Upgrade security without compromising human rights
✅ Move beyond HVT—dismantle mid-level crime structures
✅ Expand focus beyond cocaine—crack down on extortion & illegal mining,
✅ Strengthen judicial independence & purge corruption
✅ Upgrade security without compromising human rights
February 4, 2025 at 8:46 PM
8/ To break the cycle, Ecuador must:
✅ Move beyond HVT—dismantle mid-level crime structures
✅ Expand focus beyond cocaine—crack down on extortion & illegal mining,
✅ Strengthen judicial independence & purge corruption
✅ Upgrade security without compromising human rights
✅ Move beyond HVT—dismantle mid-level crime structures
✅ Expand focus beyond cocaine—crack down on extortion & illegal mining,
✅ Strengthen judicial independence & purge corruption
✅ Upgrade security without compromising human rights
7/ Yet, Noboa’s “mano dura” policies are popular—he leads with 36.9% in the polls.
But will Plan Fenix be enough? Or will Ecuador repeat the same failed strategies seen in Latin America?
But will Plan Fenix be enough? Or will Ecuador repeat the same failed strategies seen in Latin America?
February 4, 2025 at 8:46 PM
7/ Yet, Noboa’s “mano dura” policies are popular—he leads with 36.9% in the polls.
But will Plan Fenix be enough? Or will Ecuador repeat the same failed strategies seen in Latin America?
But will Plan Fenix be enough? Or will Ecuador repeat the same failed strategies seen in Latin America?
6/ Worse? Crime is infiltrating politics.
🔴 Assassinations of political candidates are rising
🔴 Judges & prosecutors are being assassinated—15 since 2022
🔴 The Metastasis scandal exposed ties between officials & organized crime
This is undermining the State’s legitimacy
🔴 Assassinations of political candidates are rising
🔴 Judges & prosecutors are being assassinated—15 since 2022
🔴 The Metastasis scandal exposed ties between officials & organized crime
This is undermining the State’s legitimacy
February 4, 2025 at 8:46 PM
6/ Worse? Crime is infiltrating politics.
🔴 Assassinations of political candidates are rising
🔴 Judges & prosecutors are being assassinated—15 since 2022
🔴 The Metastasis scandal exposed ties between officials & organized crime
This is undermining the State’s legitimacy
🔴 Assassinations of political candidates are rising
🔴 Judges & prosecutors are being assassinated—15 since 2022
🔴 The Metastasis scandal exposed ties between officials & organized crime
This is undermining the State’s legitimacy
5/ Why should the US care?
🚨 Ecuador’s violence fuels migration & transnational crime
🚨 Mexican cartels now cut short-term deals with multiple Ecuadorian groups -- leading to more bloodshed
🚨 Criminal groups are now bypassing middlemen, directly exporting cocaine to Europe
🚨 Ecuador’s violence fuels migration & transnational crime
🚨 Mexican cartels now cut short-term deals with multiple Ecuadorian groups -- leading to more bloodshed
🚨 Criminal groups are now bypassing middlemen, directly exporting cocaine to Europe
February 4, 2025 at 8:46 PM
5/ Why should the US care?
🚨 Ecuador’s violence fuels migration & transnational crime
🚨 Mexican cartels now cut short-term deals with multiple Ecuadorian groups -- leading to more bloodshed
🚨 Criminal groups are now bypassing middlemen, directly exporting cocaine to Europe
🚨 Ecuador’s violence fuels migration & transnational crime
🚨 Mexican cartels now cut short-term deals with multiple Ecuadorian groups -- leading to more bloodshed
🚨 Criminal groups are now bypassing middlemen, directly exporting cocaine to Europe
4/ Ecuador’s criminal landscape has shattered.
Like in MX, due to HVT, OCGs are splintering . With mid-level commanders fighting for control, violence is expanding.
Plus, gangs aren’t just trafficking drugs— now, they’re running illegal mining, human smuggling & extortion rings
Like in MX, due to HVT, OCGs are splintering . With mid-level commanders fighting for control, violence is expanding.
Plus, gangs aren’t just trafficking drugs— now, they’re running illegal mining, human smuggling & extortion rings
February 4, 2025 at 8:46 PM
4/ Ecuador’s criminal landscape has shattered.
Like in MX, due to HVT, OCGs are splintering . With mid-level commanders fighting for control, violence is expanding.
Plus, gangs aren’t just trafficking drugs— now, they’re running illegal mining, human smuggling & extortion rings
Like in MX, due to HVT, OCGs are splintering . With mid-level commanders fighting for control, violence is expanding.
Plus, gangs aren’t just trafficking drugs— now, they’re running illegal mining, human smuggling & extortion rings
3/ After brazen attacks in Guayaquil in 2024, President Noboa declared an "internal armed conflict," designating 22 criminal groups as terrorist organizations.
His military crackdown & high-value targeting (HVT) helped reduce homicides by 16.5%—but violence isn’t going away. Here’s why:
His military crackdown & high-value targeting (HVT) helped reduce homicides by 16.5%—but violence isn’t going away. Here’s why:
February 4, 2025 at 8:46 PM
3/ After brazen attacks in Guayaquil in 2024, President Noboa declared an "internal armed conflict," designating 22 criminal groups as terrorist organizations.
His military crackdown & high-value targeting (HVT) helped reduce homicides by 16.5%—but violence isn’t going away. Here’s why:
His military crackdown & high-value targeting (HVT) helped reduce homicides by 16.5%—but violence isn’t going away. Here’s why:
2/ Once an "island of peace," Ecuador is now one of the most violent countries in the region.
📈 Homicides: ⬆️ 430% in 5 years 💰 Extortion & kidnappings: soaring 🪖 Criminal groups: expanding & fragmenting
How did we get here? And what’s next? ⬇️
📈 Homicides: ⬆️ 430% in 5 years 💰 Extortion & kidnappings: soaring 🪖 Criminal groups: expanding & fragmenting
How did we get here? And what’s next? ⬇️
February 4, 2025 at 8:46 PM
2/ Once an "island of peace," Ecuador is now one of the most violent countries in the region.
📈 Homicides: ⬆️ 430% in 5 years 💰 Extortion & kidnappings: soaring 🪖 Criminal groups: expanding & fragmenting
How did we get here? And what’s next? ⬇️
📈 Homicides: ⬆️ 430% in 5 years 💰 Extortion & kidnappings: soaring 🪖 Criminal groups: expanding & fragmenting
How did we get here? And what’s next? ⬇️