Down on the Farm
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Down on the Farm is a newsletter featuring analysis, news, notes and summaries of all things minor league baseball, prospects, and player development ⭕️
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https://downonthefarm.substack.com/
When discussing these guys, we give them a modest bump (or ding) depending on the fielding skill, but I'd say only 5-6 prospects in a cycle have serious and untraceable (through public stats) upside. Bradfield is one of those guys, but the model hates the bat when he's treated as a "typical" CF.
December 16, 2025 at 11:21 PM
When discussing these guys, we give them a modest bump (or ding) depending on the fielding skill, but I'd say only 5-6 prospects in a cycle have serious and untraceable (through public stats) upside. Bradfield is one of those guys, but the model hates the bat when he's treated as a "typical" CF.
Yes. Our model accounts for positional value, which has a very positive effect on C, and a positive effect on CF and SS. Outside of the most exceptional fielders here (like Bradfield), the model generally does a good job. We'd need some more data points to capture these ++ fielders.
December 16, 2025 at 11:18 PM
Yes. Our model accounts for positional value, which has a very positive effect on C, and a positive effect on CF and SS. Outside of the most exceptional fielders here (like Bradfield), the model generally does a good job. We'd need some more data points to capture these ++ fielders.
Here's the piece, for those interested:
How Good Are the New-Look Orioles? Simulating the Alonso-Ward Boost
We dig into exactly how much the Orioles can expect their new acquisitions to improve their run scoring capabilities
downonthefarm.substack.com
December 14, 2025 at 8:47 PM
Here's the piece, for those interested:
Our model tends to value discipline only if it accompanies other elite traits, and while Pinango has shown great EV, he lacks another strong tool and hasn't yet delivered the HR befitting the EV. We think Jordan's young upside is underrated, even if he offers minimal versatility.
December 8, 2025 at 8:00 PM
Our model tends to value discipline only if it accompanies other elite traits, and while Pinango has shown great EV, he lacks another strong tool and hasn't yet delivered the HR befitting the EV. We think Jordan's young upside is underrated, even if he offers minimal versatility.
December 4, 2025 at 7:51 PM
What prospects stand out to you? Who do you think we're too bullish on?
November 20, 2025 at 8:25 PM
What prospects stand out to you? Who do you think we're too bullish on?
To celebrate the expansion of our relationship, we wanted to share our introduction of the Next-Gen Oyster Model, keeping our readers on the cutting edge of prospecting:
Introducing the Next Gen Oyster Model
We outline improvements to our prospect projection model and explore what its evolution tells us about player evaluation
downonthefarm.substack.com
November 20, 2025 at 8:25 PM
To celebrate the expansion of our relationship, we wanted to share our introduction of the Next-Gen Oyster Model, keeping our readers on the cutting edge of prospecting: