4/4 🤝 Feel free to get in touch if you want to exchange on these topics!

3/4 ‼️ I will still be partly employed in my previous position at ETH for some time to continue my work on subseasonal predictability of heat and drought in Switzerland.

2/4 💡In particular, we envision easier access to seamless weather and climate information for applications in the energy sector ranging from long-term planning of energy infrastructure to forecasting of energy production.

Interesting - also because it is consistent with the (predicted) strong stratospheric polar vortex, which fosters serial cyclone clustering (agu.confex.com/agu/agu24/me...) and generally more intense storms for N-Europe (doi.org/10.5194/wcd-...)

We're happy you like it. Unfortunately, though, it's not (yet) available online. But I really hope this will happen soon...

Good point. In fact, here we did show significantly enhanced skill for month-ahead precipitation in certain Southern and Northern European countries following a strong (as well as weak) stratospheric polar vortex, but there are quite some regional differences: doi.org/10.1002/qj.3...

Indeed! I remember other winters when the Zonal regime forecast was surprisingly good multiple weeks ahead in combination with a strong polar vortex (it was either Feb 2020 or 2022; not sure anymore). Regarding the charts: Unfortunately, it's still not public, but I will talk to the "creator"... 😉

Further info: doi.org/10.1038/ncli... and doi.org/10.1002/qj.4...

Interesting! Also for the 7 Atlantic-European regime forecast I have rarely seen such a suppression of Greenland blocking (blue) throughout the forecast. I definitely also think that a strong stratospheric polar vortex coupling to the troposphere is an underestimated window of forecast opportunity.

4/4: Our study demonstrates that subseasonal forecasts might be a great - but yet untapped - tool for issuing early warnings for heat-related mortality in Central Europe. We are thus keen to receive further feedback from health authorities to help making such warning systems operational!

3/4: For the two investigated showcase summers, we found that individual peaks of heat-related mortality can be predicted up to 2 weeks ahead, while longer periods of heat-related excess mortality can be anticipated 3-4 weeks ahead.

2/4: We applied methods from climate epidemiology to estimate the heat-mortality relationship for two densely populated Swiss cantons (ZH, GE). We then used bias-corrected and downscaled subseasonal temperature forecasts from the hot summers 2018 and 2022 to predict mortality attributable to heat.