Divyang Shah
@divyang.bsky.social
Charts and thoughts on markets. Currently IFR Markets/LSEG previously Reuters.
Treasuries and Bunds having a touch of meh as JGB yields continue higher
December 4, 2025 at 3:31 PM
Treasuries and Bunds having a touch of meh as JGB yields continue higher
H/t to @mrmbrown.bsky.social from the other side...the Ramsden indicator
November 6, 2025 at 4:05 PM
H/t to @mrmbrown.bsky.social from the other side...the Ramsden indicator
Trump helps to reset the counter back to zero....
October 13, 2025 at 3:15 PM
Trump helps to reset the counter back to zero....
Bund implieds including those at the wings are at their YTD lows...a reflection of Bunds trading with a fresh lower floor on its range
September 23, 2025 at 1:42 PM
Bund implieds including those at the wings are at their YTD lows...a reflection of Bunds trading with a fresh lower floor on its range
ECB pricing for Sep meeting (blue) and front-month WTI (white) correlated since Israel-Iran conflict began
June 17, 2025 at 2:20 PM
ECB pricing for Sep meeting (blue) and front-month WTI (white) correlated since Israel-Iran conflict began
CBC on TWD...it has "returned to a relatively stable situation."
FX options market says different....there is still a 30 vol spread on the o/n
FX options market says different....there is still a 30 vol spread on the o/n
May 6, 2025 at 3:36 PM
CBC on TWD...it has "returned to a relatively stable situation."
FX options market says different....there is still a 30 vol spread on the o/n
FX options market says different....there is still a 30 vol spread on the o/n
Risk pricing is not seeing today as having a lasting vol impact, instead seen as a peak vol event
April 2, 2025 at 10:23 AM
Risk pricing is not seeing today as having a lasting vol impact, instead seen as a peak vol event
Volatility but now Gilts sharply unchanged after Spring Statement
March 26, 2025 at 3:12 PM
Volatility but now Gilts sharply unchanged after Spring Statement
There are two types of people at the #ecbwatchers conference. Those that take photos with their phones horizontal and those keeping them vertical.
March 12, 2025 at 12:19 PM
There are two types of people at the #ecbwatchers conference. Those that take photos with their phones horizontal and those keeping them vertical.
VIX futures trade a discount to spot...out to Oct
February 28, 2025 at 1:51 PM
VIX futures trade a discount to spot...out to Oct
9 consecutive days of higher highs on 10yr Bund yields...what happens next?
January 14, 2025 at 4:55 PM
9 consecutive days of higher highs on 10yr Bund yields...what happens next?
50bp cut and inflation forecasts for next year were still revised lower....ZIRP/NIRP in play
December 12, 2024 at 11:26 AM
50bp cut and inflation forecasts for next year were still revised lower....ZIRP/NIRP in play
Comparing Dec vs Jan smiles
December 6, 2024 at 12:34 PM
Comparing Dec vs Jan smiles
While Dec expiry OAT option vols have been sticky the same is not true for Jan expiry OAT option vols that have seen the wings move lower....coupled with the move down on spreads/CDS the market is pricing out the risk
December 6, 2024 at 12:23 PM
While Dec expiry OAT option vols have been sticky the same is not true for Jan expiry OAT option vols that have seen the wings move lower....coupled with the move down on spreads/CDS the market is pricing out the risk
Some OAT options signals...
December 4, 2024 at 4:05 PM
Some OAT options signals...
A lot of spread focus but no real pain from holders as FR yields are on the whole lower (except 30s)
November 29, 2024 at 12:45 PM
A lot of spread focus but no real pain from holders as FR yields are on the whole lower (except 30s)
A lot of focus on France but the options market is saying the vol will be short-lived ...back down in the new year
November 29, 2024 at 12:44 PM
A lot of focus on France but the options market is saying the vol will be short-lived ...back down in the new year
After the PMIs the 50bp cut probability is back...just take a look at Jan as well as Dec
November 22, 2024 at 3:57 PM
After the PMIs the 50bp cut probability is back...just take a look at Jan as well as Dec
Curve beyond 1m inverted but less so...
November 8, 2024 at 1:59 PM
Curve beyond 1m inverted but less so...
Trump win = deeper ECB rate cuts
November 6, 2024 at 12:03 PM
Trump win = deeper ECB rate cuts
ECB 50bp cut bets be trimmed...(was away last week so no update)
November 4, 2024 at 2:56 PM
ECB 50bp cut bets be trimmed...(was away last week so no update)
Polls say its close...but take a look at Trump/Harris lead vs poll sample size
November 4, 2024 at 2:54 PM
Polls say its close...but take a look at Trump/Harris lead vs poll sample size
45% priced for a 50bp cut at Dec ECB meeting
October 23, 2024 at 10:42 AM
45% priced for a 50bp cut at Dec ECB meeting
Election risk premium (as of Friday)
October 21, 2024 at 2:03 PM
Election risk premium (as of Friday)