DiviDivi_LV 🇱🇻 🇺🇦
@dividivi-lv.bsky.social
3.27 tr wasnt injected in a week. The amount that was injected this week is the difference between the amount of REPO loans in last week and amount in this week:
3.27 tr - 2.85 tr = 0.42 tr. This is the amount that was injected in a single week. Its significant, but its not 3 tr.
3.27 tr - 2.85 tr = 0.42 tr. This is the amount that was injected in a single week. Its significant, but its not 3 tr.
December 2, 2025 at 7:26 PM
3.27 tr wasnt injected in a week. The amount that was injected this week is the difference between the amount of REPO loans in last week and amount in this week:
3.27 tr - 2.85 tr = 0.42 tr. This is the amount that was injected in a single week. Its significant, but its not 3 tr.
3.27 tr - 2.85 tr = 0.42 tr. This is the amount that was injected in a single week. Its significant, but its not 3 tr.
Kremlin can milk these people even harder to fund the war - these people are obviously ok with that.
November 27, 2025 at 4:50 PM
Kremlin can milk these people even harder to fund the war - these people are obviously ok with that.
Which makes me think that real inflation is likely lower than bond yields.
November 27, 2025 at 8:08 AM
Which makes me think that real inflation is likely lower than bond yields.
Bond yields - even short term - reflect not only real inflation, but also geopolitical risk, default risk, sanction risk, uncertainty risk etc. Also russias bond market may be low trading volume and with limited set of participants which can impact bond yields.
November 27, 2025 at 8:08 AM
Bond yields - even short term - reflect not only real inflation, but also geopolitical risk, default risk, sanction risk, uncertainty risk etc. Also russias bond market may be low trading volume and with limited set of participants which can impact bond yields.
At the time i was disappointed to hear that, because i also believed that the real inflation was over 20 %.
You can watch it, if you are interested, link bellow:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=VOYl...
You can watch it, if you are interested, link bellow:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=VOYl...
The One Factor That Could Crash the Russian Economy
YouTube video by Dmitri Alperovitch
www.youtube.com
November 26, 2025 at 10:45 PM
At the time i was disappointed to hear that, because i also believed that the real inflation was over 20 %.
You can watch it, if you are interested, link bellow:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=VOYl...
You can watch it, if you are interested, link bellow:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=VOYl...
I dont see russia in the site you gave.
At the beginning of this year i watched an interview with Russian economy expert Chris Weafer who frequently visits russia, and he evaluated that the real inflation in 2024 was ~ 15 %, while the official inflation was ~ 9 %.
At the beginning of this year i watched an interview with Russian economy expert Chris Weafer who frequently visits russia, and he evaluated that the real inflation in 2024 was ~ 15 %, while the official inflation was ~ 9 %.
November 26, 2025 at 10:45 PM
I dont see russia in the site you gave.
At the beginning of this year i watched an interview with Russian economy expert Chris Weafer who frequently visits russia, and he evaluated that the real inflation in 2024 was ~ 15 %, while the official inflation was ~ 9 %.
At the beginning of this year i watched an interview with Russian economy expert Chris Weafer who frequently visits russia, and he evaluated that the real inflation in 2024 was ~ 15 %, while the official inflation was ~ 9 %.
If we take into account the real inflation, then situation is worse, i agree. Although its hard to know what the real inflation is.
Where are you getting your data about rates on Moscow secondary bond market?
Where are you getting your data about rates on Moscow secondary bond market?
November 26, 2025 at 5:18 PM
If we take into account the real inflation, then situation is worse, i agree. Although its hard to know what the real inflation is.
Where are you getting your data about rates on Moscow secondary bond market?
Where are you getting your data about rates on Moscow secondary bond market?
Commercial banks can create (print) money to give out loans, money is not the problem. The problem is the consumer who cant repay the loan, thats why banks dont want to lend to them.
November 26, 2025 at 8:25 AM
Commercial banks can create (print) money to give out loans, money is not the problem. The problem is the consumer who cant repay the loan, thats why banks dont want to lend to them.
In recession yes. Depression - quite far away, but hopefully russia will get there.
November 26, 2025 at 8:20 AM
In recession yes. Depression - quite far away, but hopefully russia will get there.
Russia can do all kinds of schemes, its possible, but i havent seen any evidence of that, so at the moment its just speculation, whereas bank balance sheets are hard data (maybe flawed, but still).
November 26, 2025 at 8:04 AM
Russia can do all kinds of schemes, its possible, but i havent seen any evidence of that, so at the moment its just speculation, whereas bank balance sheets are hard data (maybe flawed, but still).
Also, collateral for REPO loan is evaluated at real market value, not nominal, and the real value must be larger than REPO loan, so for the bank its cheaper to repay the loan than to lose OFZ as collateral.
November 25, 2025 at 10:20 PM
Also, collateral for REPO loan is evaluated at real market value, not nominal, and the real value must be larger than REPO loan, so for the bank its cheaper to repay the loan than to lose OFZ as collateral.
Banks repay REPO loan to full amount. I havent seen any evidence that banks dont repay REPO loans, but ive seen a graph of a state owned bank's balance sheet in which amount of OFZs was increasing fast, which means that OFZs are accumulating in banks.
November 25, 2025 at 10:18 PM
Banks repay REPO loan to full amount. I havent seen any evidence that banks dont repay REPO loans, but ive seen a graph of a state owned bank's balance sheet in which amount of OFZs was increasing fast, which means that OFZs are accumulating in banks.
Can you give us your source about 29-34% real inflation?
November 25, 2025 at 6:44 PM
Can you give us your source about 29-34% real inflation?
Wow, 4 trillion - thats huge.
November 25, 2025 at 6:35 PM
Wow, 4 trillion - thats huge.
Ļoti pareizi. Lai Eiropā būtu ilgstošs miers, Krievijai šajā karā ir jāzaudē, un mums ir jāpalīdz ukraiņiem to panākt.
November 25, 2025 at 6:25 PM
Ļoti pareizi. Lai Eiropā būtu ilgstošs miers, Krievijai šajā karā ir jāzaudē, un mums ir jāpalīdz ukraiņiem to panākt.
and that didnt break russian economy. So, IMO, talks about russia printing money is more wishful thinking than reality - they are not injecting huge volume of new money into economy as "launching the printing press" would imply.
November 25, 2025 at 8:54 AM
and that didnt break russian economy. So, IMO, talks about russia printing money is more wishful thinking than reality - they are not injecting huge volume of new money into economy as "launching the printing press" would imply.
CB prints money to give out REPO loans, but after REPO loan expires, the money is repaid and destroyed (or the loan gets extended and money will be destroyed later). The amount of REPO loans currently in circulation is not unprecedented - russia had this kind of REPO loan amount in 2023 too,
November 25, 2025 at 8:53 AM
CB prints money to give out REPO loans, but after REPO loan expires, the money is repaid and destroyed (or the loan gets extended and money will be destroyed later). The amount of REPO loans currently in circulation is not unprecedented - russia had this kind of REPO loan amount in 2023 too,
Yes. Hopefully the EU will increase its support for Ukraine and help it outlast russia.
November 24, 2025 at 6:44 PM
Yes. Hopefully the EU will increase its support for Ukraine and help it outlast russia.
"Russia’s economy and its army are on the point of collapse" - i dont think thats true. Unless there is a black swan event, im afraid russia can keep going for at least a year or maybe even two. Russians still arent protesting, which means Kremlin can milk their people even harder to fund the war.
November 23, 2025 at 10:33 PM
"Russia’s economy and its army are on the point of collapse" - i dont think thats true. Unless there is a black swan event, im afraid russia can keep going for at least a year or maybe even two. Russians still arent protesting, which means Kremlin can milk their people even harder to fund the war.
I like your proposal, but can you enforce it?
If the EU reduces its support for Ukraine - and it looks like the current trend seems to be heading in that direction -, then Russia eventually will take all Donbas and force Ukraine into the same concessions that the US is asking of it.
If the EU reduces its support for Ukraine - and it looks like the current trend seems to be heading in that direction -, then Russia eventually will take all Donbas and force Ukraine into the same concessions that the US is asking of it.
November 21, 2025 at 11:46 PM
I like your proposal, but can you enforce it?
If the EU reduces its support for Ukraine - and it looks like the current trend seems to be heading in that direction -, then Russia eventually will take all Donbas and force Ukraine into the same concessions that the US is asking of it.
If the EU reduces its support for Ukraine - and it looks like the current trend seems to be heading in that direction -, then Russia eventually will take all Donbas and force Ukraine into the same concessions that the US is asking of it.
December will be fun.
November 14, 2025 at 8:13 PM
December will be fun.
REPO loans are short term loans (usually 1-7 days), after which the money is repaid and withdrawn from circulation. Although these loans can create inflationary pressures, its not really money printing - unless these loans are extended perpetually which we dont know if thats gonna happen.
November 12, 2025 at 8:59 AM
REPO loans are short term loans (usually 1-7 days), after which the money is repaid and withdrawn from circulation. Although these loans can create inflationary pressures, its not really money printing - unless these loans are extended perpetually which we dont know if thats gonna happen.
"If the banks hand over the bonds to the central bank, the REPO loan will be considered forgiven." - thats not happening. OFZ bonds are accumulating on commercial banks' balance sheets, which means they are not being handed over to CB as you are saying.
November 11, 2025 at 11:42 PM
"If the banks hand over the bonds to the central bank, the REPO loan will be considered forgiven." - thats not happening. OFZ bonds are accumulating on commercial banks' balance sheets, which means they are not being handed over to CB as you are saying.