As we argue in our latest report, achieving armed supremacy over gangs would be a major breakthrough for Haiti.

But at some stage, authorities should use dialogue to protect civilians, stop recruitment, fully dismantle these groups, and cut their ties to power. www.crisisgroup.org/rpt/latin-am...

As political dialogues continue, security forces must stand ready to counter any new wave of coordinated attacks by the Viv Ansanm gang coalition aimed at disrupting the arrival of the Gang Suppression Force, which is set to begin deploying in April.

Meanwhile, gangs that usually profit from periods of heightened political turmoil to escalate attacks have remained relatively quiet.

Faced with increasing operations led by the Haitian police and foreign contractors, gangs appear to be on the back foot for the first time in years.

In an address on the night of 7 February, Fils-Aimé pledged to pursue dialogue with political and social forces, without specifying if he would consider sharing executive power in a two-headed arrangement.

At the power transfer ceremony, then-TPC head Laurent Saint Cyr said most political forces support a two-headed executive and urged the PM to continue discussions to reach a new political agreement.

Under strong international pressure to block Fils-Aimé’s ousting, and with no clear and consensual plan for who/what could replace the TPC, the PM has (for now) become the sole head of the executive.

But a new phase of political negotiations is just beginning.

Then, on the same day that participants in meetings convened by some TPC members proposed establishing a 3-member council and appointing a new prime minister, the U.S. sent a guided-missile destroyer and two coast guard boats to patrol Port-au-Prince bay.

In late Jan, defying foreign pushback, 5 council members signed a resolution to oust Fils-Aimé.

In response, the U.S. revoked the visas of 4 unnamed council members and a cabinet minister, all reportedly as punishment for their plotting to remove the PM. www.crisisgroup.org/anb/latin-am...

In November, the U.S. revoked the visa of TPC member Fritz Jean, accusing him of supporting gangs, as he was allegedly leading a new effort to replace the prime minister. apnews.com/article/hait...

Foreign pressure, especially from the U.S. government, thwarted multiple attempts by members of the presidential council to replace Fils-Aimé.

The first came six months ago:

As the presidential council’s mandate neared its end on 7 February, with no consensus emerging in Haiti on what might succeed the TPC, Fils-Aimé was seen by foreign powers as essential to sustaining the improving coordination between forces on the ground.

Cooperation between foreign contractors and the Haitian police improved significantly after Vladimir Paraison was appointed chief of police last August, with whom Fils-Aimé built a strong working relationship.

Since then, Fils-Aimé has led this task force - whose drones have instilled fear within the gangs' ranks - working with contractors from a company owned by Blackwater founder Erik Prince, who praised the PM’s initiative as the new force was being established:

But Fils-Aimé refused to remain under the council's shadow.

A year ago, he set up a security task force, assisted by foreign contractors operating explosive drones to counter gang offensives and strike inside their strongholds.

This was Fils-Aimé’s first political post.

A shareholder and owner of several companies, he ran unsuccessfully for the Senate in 2015 but remained largely unknown to the public.

Given the new prime minister's limited political experience, TPC members expected to be the ones calling the shots.

Fils-Aimé was appointed prime minister in November 2024, replacing Garry Conille, who repeatedly clashed with council members. apnews.com/article/prim...

Hampered by infighting, shifting alliances among council members, corruption allegations, and strained relations with the PM, the TPC failed to move forward together on its priorities: security, constitutional reform, and elections. www.crisisgroup.org/rpt/latin-am...

In early 2024, gangs in the capital formed a united front and coordinated attacks, paralyzing Port-au-Prince and forcing PM Ariel Henry to step down.

A broad political agreement established a new government: a 9-member Transitional Presidential Council (TPC), a PM, and a cabinet.