For the sake of the region, U.S. security, and the many civilians who would be affected by a further escalation, we ask for calm and sober consideration of the path forward.

Full statement:

www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...

Intelligence would stop flowing in both directions - meaning that the U.S. would be flying blind in Latin America.

Colombia is at the heart of counternarcotics operations in the region, providing 80%+ of actionable intel for seizures by US coastguard.
on.ft.com/4hrXq2g

Atop this alarming mix, US cuts to Colombia's security forces could carry the region to a worst case scenario.

Having cooperated for decades, the US and Colombian militaries are deeply integrated. If the US leaves, operations could be paralyzed.
www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-...

Moreover, this and other criminal groups could capitalize on the chaos of a transition to expand, particularly into the country's mineral rich south.

Here, we would be looking at risks from Colombian, Brazilian, and local Venezuelan groups.

www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...

The ELN should not be underestimated.

With deep expertise in explosives, terrorist-style attacks, and the recent acquisition of armed drones, the ELN could easily create significant chaos.

The insurgency has in recent months acquired more sophisticated communications equipment and weaponry.

If the U.S. plan is to topple Maduro, the possibility of violence would be significant.

Here, front and centre are the ELN, a hardened insurgency with presence in Venezuela & Colombia that the latter has sought for 60+ yrs to defeat.

ELN has vowed to defend Maduro and would.

Countries have understood the message and started to
take sides.

Argentina, Ecuador, Paraguay & Trinidad have courted Trump.

Venezuela, Nicaragua, & Cuba stand on the other side.

U.S. allies who sought a middle ground (Colombia, Mexico, Brazil) find themselves under siege.

Something else is going on, and that something is messaging: to Maduro, to the broader region.

The decision to move unilaterally with military attacks, disregarding decades of cooperation, or even the courtesy of advanced warning, has sent a chilling message across the region.

First, the basics.

This is not a counter-narcotics strategy. Even if we take the WH at its word that there are drugs on board, attacking smalltime traffickers on speedboats will do nothing to affect the market.

The hard work is just beginning. Implementation will be the true marker of whether the transitional court can demonstrate the restorative power of amnesties that allowed FARC to demobilise.

Peace efforts in the future depend on consolidating these processes in the coming days.

Another test of public opinion will come with the next forthcoming case in the pipeline, against former members of the security forces involved in the forced disappearances of 6,402 "false positive" casualties, killed to boost combat death counts.

www.comisiondelaverdad.co/base-de-dato...

As #Colombia enters an election year, with security at the top of voters' concerns, the public reaction to these sentences will be key to shaping ongoing future peace processes.

Whether in favor or opposed, candidates will likely see the verdicts as a standard to judge by.

There is also the question of who will organize projects and pay. The JEP has asked the entirety of government – local, regional, national - to think about and propose projects where defendants could work.

www.elespectador.com/colombia-20/...

Putting that aspiration into practice has proven daunting. For one, deteriorating security conditions complicate and limit where reparations can physically happen safely – both for defendants and communities.

The JEP decided upon its penalties, judges say, after hundreds of meetings with victims, whose primary message was that justice to them would mean: their lives are somehow better off after the sentence.

www.jep.gov.co/Sala-de-Pren...