Sanctions aren’t incentives 🙃
They punish, they don’t persuade.
Usually it has to get ugly first — only then does the hunger for relief create real movement.

Thanks, Arjun.
👉 In the short term, vulnerabilities tend to push Houthis to adapt — alternate routes, decentralized stockpiles, proxy smuggling networks.
👉 Negotiation becomes realistic only if pressure is sustained and incentives are visible.
👉 For now, adaptation looks more likely. Resilience.

✅️ Noticeable dip in Red Sea shipping attacks

💡 Net effect: slowed Houthi momentum & exposed vulnerabilities, but not a game-changer

8 weeks on since published – impact of the intercepted Iranian arms shipment:

Cut Houthi resupply of advanced weapons

Houthis still launched drones/missiles, some escalations vs Israel

Israel exploited the moment with strikes on ports & leadership

Alternated routes
Decentralised stock pile

🐧🌊

💡The dismantling of DDS doesn’t just hollow out B2G tech — it clears the runway for Combat-as-a-Service, letting Anduril, Palantir & Musk-led ventures dominate. Musk may be chaotic, but the pattern is clear: shift defense from the state to the private sector. And nobody seems to notice.

Genau das passiert jetzt. Prozesse dauern. Funktionieren aber 💪