Can't imagine going through three 2016s.

I wonder what happens if that NY lawsuit actually leads to a new map. Plaintiffs argument is that SI district dilutes minority voters according to state law, but could it be treated as a racial gerrymander according to federal law? And how it even fares in post-Calais opinion world if it's on time?

yeah, I think it'll be fine, especially with panel's composition, but I still wish dems weren't running their mouths how much more Latino they are making some districts if partisan advantage was the true goal, especially since those two didn't line up in 2024

Gray is interesting cause his district was made into a few point Harris one with Prop 50 but preliminary injunction court hearings are happening currently and from what I've seen, and I hate to say it, but I'm not entirely sure it survives, and his district in particular is a big sticking point.

I'm not sure 2018 and 2026 compare that well. 2026 has a cluster of low/middle double digits red states, 2018 was anywhere from high single digits to 20+ red states. 2006 is somewhat better as a comparison but that's a different era of partisan polarization.

It's very unlikely it'll be that blue of an environment tho, it's hopium based on a shift in only one district in low turnout state. VA/NJ indicate more like +7-8. 2020 had her winning by 8% in D +4.5 environment, she can survive 3% bluer than that, especially with RCV.

He would have to win by a comfortable margin to have good enough coattails to carry the senate candidate. And maybe he will! But I'm skeptical, wide differences in GOV/SEN races are not uncommon. PA in 2022 even had the same dynamic, both races open, and the difference was big.

I'm not sure that's true in the cases of individual candidates, especially people like Husted or Hinson, the only one with "unpopular" sticker is Collins, but she also was in 2020.

He's running for governor tho. The recent election results point to dems making big gains with non-white voters but very modest with whites, that's not enough in Iowa, especially not with decent republican candidate.

Also, dems lately each time lose at least one "obvious" pick up and/or hold: NV 2012, *where do we even start* in 2014, WI/PA 2016, FL 2018, ME 2020, WI 2022( tho this one is DSCC's and Florida's fault), PA 2024.

I'm not aware of any polling in Iowa since Ernst announcing retirement and I do agree that we should seriously consider the possibility that Maine isn't happening again, I mainly don't trust RCV. No one thought that dems will get both GA seats but not Maine in 2020, so it's not unprecedented.

Main difference is that there were far more republicans in blue states/districts in 2006 than there are now, it's just Collins and (retiring) Bacon, so they had no choice but to run against Bush. Currently they are going with "we are losing cause Trump isn't on the ballot" bullshit analysis.

wasn't this about Ohio in 2012?

holy shit you weren't joking lmao
www.youtube.com/watch?v=j0Fr...

FoxNews has good ratings across the board tho, CBS has consistently the worst ratings in the broadcast news category.

That video was straight up embarrassing, if I wouldn't be following these things and watched it, I would guess she's already running for president in dem primary, not for a senate seat in a red state.

Yeah, 2014 was a dumpster fire overall, especially in the senate, but both senate and gov races in Georgia having almost exact margin as 2012, despite rest of the country being around 10% redder, was a sign of things to come.

On the other, we have people thinking every southern state can become new Virginia if dems try hard enough. This stuff isn't hard to look up, neither is if a state even has a party registration.