Dan Hopkins
@dhopkins1776.bsky.social
Political scientist at the University of Pennsylvania. Prof: http://goo.gl/qAOlH9 538: http://goo.gl/1iwZJs
"When the waves turn the minutes to hours..."
November 10, 2025 at 1:10 PM
"When the waves turn the minutes to hours..."
+ effects among some subgroups (eg in their early 60s) were offset by - effects among those most likely to be uninsured (& so pay a fine) after the ACA.
People react very negatively when they lose something--but the exchanges' design may obscure the gov't role.
2/3
People react very negatively when they lose something--but the exchanges' design may obscure the gov't role.
2/3
October 29, 2025 at 4:36 PM
+ effects among some subgroups (eg in their early 60s) were offset by - effects among those most likely to be uninsured (& so pay a fine) after the ACA.
People react very negatively when they lose something--but the exchanges' design may obscure the gov't role.
2/3
People react very negatively when they lose something--but the exchanges' design may obscure the gov't role.
2/3
What are the likely impacts if the ACA enhanced tax credits expire?
In a 2021 JOP article, W Hobbs & I looked at the impacts of the ACA exchanges' 2014 roll-out on ACA opinions.
Effects were cross-cutting, with + effects for some offset by the negative effects on others.
1/3
In a 2021 JOP article, W Hobbs & I looked at the impacts of the ACA exchanges' 2014 roll-out on ACA opinions.
Effects were cross-cutting, with + effects for some offset by the negative effects on others.
1/3
October 29, 2025 at 4:36 PM
What are the likely impacts if the ACA enhanced tax credits expire?
In a 2021 JOP article, W Hobbs & I looked at the impacts of the ACA exchanges' 2014 roll-out on ACA opinions.
Effects were cross-cutting, with + effects for some offset by the negative effects on others.
1/3
In a 2021 JOP article, W Hobbs & I looked at the impacts of the ACA exchanges' 2014 roll-out on ACA opinions.
Effects were cross-cutting, with + effects for some offset by the negative effects on others.
1/3
In his interview w @jonfavs.bsky.social, @ezraklein.bsky.social asks, "why haven't the tariffs soured the public on Trump?"
An answer from my book on ACA opinions: the contemporary US economy is so diverse & complex that even sizable policy changes don't move opinions consistently.
An answer from my book on ACA opinions: the contemporary US economy is so diverse & complex that even sizable policy changes don't move opinions consistently.
October 15, 2025 at 3:28 PM
In his interview w @jonfavs.bsky.social, @ezraklein.bsky.social asks, "why haven't the tariffs soured the public on Trump?"
An answer from my book on ACA opinions: the contemporary US economy is so diverse & complex that even sizable policy changes don't move opinions consistently.
An answer from my book on ACA opinions: the contemporary US economy is so diverse & complex that even sizable policy changes don't move opinions consistently.
What predicts which NYC Democrats backed Cuomo or Mamdani in the primary?
I use March/April (green lines) & May/June (black lines) @today.yougov.com surveys to examine the attitudes that predict who backed Cuomo or Mamdani.
The most predictive question for both? Attitudes on police spending.
I use March/April (green lines) & May/June (black lines) @today.yougov.com surveys to examine the attitudes that predict who backed Cuomo or Mamdani.
The most predictive question for both? Attitudes on police spending.
October 14, 2025 at 4:35 PM
What predicts which NYC Democrats backed Cuomo or Mamdani in the primary?
I use March/April (green lines) & May/June (black lines) @today.yougov.com surveys to examine the attitudes that predict who backed Cuomo or Mamdani.
The most predictive question for both? Attitudes on police spending.
I use March/April (green lines) & May/June (black lines) @today.yougov.com surveys to examine the attitudes that predict who backed Cuomo or Mamdani.
The most predictive question for both? Attitudes on police spending.
Grateful the Daily Pennsylvanian asked for my views on the administration's proposed Compact.
www.thedp.com/article/2025...
www.thedp.com/article/2025...
October 8, 2025 at 12:43 PM
Grateful the Daily Pennsylvanian asked for my views on the administration's proposed Compact.
www.thedp.com/article/2025...
www.thedp.com/article/2025...
This = from a NORC Feb./March 2024 survey.
Blue line shows the weighted average of affective polarization--the absolute difference in ratings of the Republicans & Democrats on the y-axis--by number of days getting news on social media (x-axis).
Not a strong relationship.
Blue line shows the weighted average of affective polarization--the absolute difference in ratings of the Republicans & Democrats on the y-axis--by number of days getting news on social media (x-axis).
Not a strong relationship.
September 18, 2025 at 7:23 PM
This = from a NORC Feb./March 2024 survey.
Blue line shows the weighted average of affective polarization--the absolute difference in ratings of the Republicans & Democrats on the y-axis--by number of days getting news on social media (x-axis).
Not a strong relationship.
Blue line shows the weighted average of affective polarization--the absolute difference in ratings of the Republicans & Democrats on the y-axis--by number of days getting news on social media (x-axis).
Not a strong relationship.
I remember so much about that morning 24 years ago in NYC--how clear the day was after the storms the day before. How a thin trail of smoke in an otherwise clear sky was the first I knew of the tragedy. How it was followed by an intense cloud once the Towers collapsed. 1/
September 11, 2025 at 12:19 PM
I remember so much about that morning 24 years ago in NYC--how clear the day was after the storms the day before. How a thin trail of smoke in an otherwise clear sky was the first I knew of the tragedy. How it was followed by an intense cloud once the Towers collapsed. 1/
Despite their well-documented flaws, I think universities are uniquely positioned to help the US think through the complex economic, social, political, legal, ethical, technological, & military questions raised by contemporary and emerging uses of AI.
September 8, 2025 at 2:03 PM
Despite their well-documented flaws, I think universities are uniquely positioned to help the US think through the complex economic, social, political, legal, ethical, technological, & military questions raised by contemporary and emerging uses of AI.
In my NORC 2024 panel, respondents who didn't match to the voter file were *18.5 percentage points* more pro-Trump than the sample overall.
My guess: Trump voters were less willing to give the information needed to match to voter records.
My guess: Trump voters were less willing to give the information needed to match to voter records.
September 2, 2025 at 4:21 PM
In my NORC 2024 panel, respondents who didn't match to the voter file were *18.5 percentage points* more pro-Trump than the sample overall.
My guess: Trump voters were less willing to give the information needed to match to voter records.
My guess: Trump voters were less willing to give the information needed to match to voter records.
There's an irony in Nate Silver's call for academics to police ourselves more--esp. if social media is indeed bad for our reputation.
I *already* spend hours a day policing research--writing journal reviews, tenure letters, serving on award committees, editing a journal, etc.
4/
I *already* spend hours a day policing research--writing journal reviews, tenure letters, serving on award committees, editing a journal, etc.
4/
August 21, 2025 at 12:48 PM
There's an irony in Nate Silver's call for academics to police ourselves more--esp. if social media is indeed bad for our reputation.
I *already* spend hours a day policing research--writing journal reviews, tenure letters, serving on award committees, editing a journal, etc.
4/
I *already* spend hours a day policing research--writing journal reviews, tenure letters, serving on award committees, editing a journal, etc.
4/
So for those outside a field, if you see something on social media, it's probably because it is generating a lot of interest among people like you--that is, those outside the field.
In some respects, political science has lost its ability to curate internally.
2/
In some respects, political science has lost its ability to curate internally.
2/
August 21, 2025 at 12:48 PM
So for those outside a field, if you see something on social media, it's probably because it is generating a lot of interest among people like you--that is, those outside the field.
In some respects, political science has lost its ability to curate internally.
2/
In some respects, political science has lost its ability to curate internally.
2/
I'm going to sidestep the substantive ?s & broadsides in this
Nate Silver post. Its coda does pose a dilemma for academics.
I agree social media has been bad for public perceptions of academics. What posts go viral? Those of interest outside academia.
www.natesilver.net/p/real-talk-...
1/
Nate Silver post. Its coda does pose a dilemma for academics.
I agree social media has been bad for public perceptions of academics. What posts go viral? Those of interest outside academia.
www.natesilver.net/p/real-talk-...
1/
August 21, 2025 at 12:48 PM
I'm going to sidestep the substantive ?s & broadsides in this
Nate Silver post. Its coda does pose a dilemma for academics.
I agree social media has been bad for public perceptions of academics. What posts go viral? Those of interest outside academia.
www.natesilver.net/p/real-talk-...
1/
Nate Silver post. Its coda does pose a dilemma for academics.
I agree social media has been bad for public perceptions of academics. What posts go viral? Those of interest outside academia.
www.natesilver.net/p/real-talk-...
1/
Grateful to have been quoted in this @perrybaconjr.bsky.social piece in the @postopinions.bsky.social on the politics of Medicaid cuts:
img.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
img.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
July 12, 2025 at 12:50 PM
Grateful to have been quoted in this @perrybaconjr.bsky.social piece in the @postopinions.bsky.social on the politics of Medicaid cuts:
img.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
img.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
Shot (from @politico.com Playbook); chaser (from my book on public opinion & the ACA)
July 3, 2025 at 12:28 PM
Shot (from @politico.com Playbook); chaser (from my book on public opinion & the ACA)
While some forms of political engagement are associated with higher levels of support for compromise, political donors are *less* supportive of compromise.
That's especially important given that they have differential access to politicians.
That's especially important given that they have differential access to politicians.
July 1, 2025 at 6:45 PM
While some forms of political engagement are associated with higher levels of support for compromise, political donors are *less* supportive of compromise.
That's especially important given that they have differential access to politicians.
That's especially important given that they have differential access to politicians.
Trump supporters are less likely to support compromises in the abstract, but not much less likely to support the concrete compromises we propose.
July 1, 2025 at 6:42 PM
Trump supporters are less likely to support compromises in the abstract, but not much less likely to support the concrete compromises we propose.
You might expect an asymmetry, with people especially unlikely to support compromises where they oppose at least one of its elements. That's consistent with one form of loss aversion. But we don't find that.
July 1, 2025 at 6:37 PM
You might expect an asymmetry, with people especially unlikely to support compromises where they oppose at least one of its elements. That's consistent with one form of loss aversion. But we don't find that.
Overall, 47% of all proposed compromises we proposed won support, with variation by the specific policy elements.
Requiring photo ID for voting and expanding Medicare are especially popular as elements in compromises.
Requiring photo ID for voting and expanding Medicare are especially popular as elements in compromises.
July 1, 2025 at 6:33 PM
Overall, 47% of all proposed compromises we proposed won support, with variation by the specific policy elements.
Requiring photo ID for voting and expanding Medicare are especially popular as elements in compromises.
Requiring photo ID for voting and expanding Medicare are especially popular as elements in compromises.
First, where can you find this paper? It's posted on OSF: osf.io/preprints/so...
We use various surveys to look at when Americans support cross-issue compromises, defined as compromises where they are asked to support a conservative policy change on one issue & a liberal change on another.
We use various surveys to look at when Americans support cross-issue compromises, defined as compromises where they are asked to support a conservative policy change on one issue & a liberal change on another.
July 1, 2025 at 6:32 PM
First, where can you find this paper? It's posted on OSF: osf.io/preprints/so...
We use various surveys to look at when Americans support cross-issue compromises, defined as compromises where they are asked to support a conservative policy change on one issue & a liberal change on another.
We use various surveys to look at when Americans support cross-issue compromises, defined as compromises where they are asked to support a conservative policy change on one issue & a liberal change on another.
The Senate just passed a major reconciliation bill with no Democratic support (mirroring passage of the ACA, IRA).
But would Americans support broad bipartisan compromises? My new paper with Paul Lendway & Gall Sigler--"Public Support for Cross-Issue Compromises in the U.S."--says yes.
Quick 🧵
But would Americans support broad bipartisan compromises? My new paper with Paul Lendway & Gall Sigler--"Public Support for Cross-Issue Compromises in the U.S."--says yes.
Quick 🧵
July 1, 2025 at 6:14 PM
The Senate just passed a major reconciliation bill with no Democratic support (mirroring passage of the ACA, IRA).
But would Americans support broad bipartisan compromises? My new paper with Paul Lendway & Gall Sigler--"Public Support for Cross-Issue Compromises in the U.S."--says yes.
Quick 🧵
But would Americans support broad bipartisan compromises? My new paper with Paul Lendway & Gall Sigler--"Public Support for Cross-Issue Compromises in the U.S."--says yes.
Quick 🧵
As the Senate GOP moves forward with the reconciliation bill, some (most?) of the lessons from the Affordable Care Act about public opinion--which I highlighted in my book "Stable Condition"--still apply.
www.russellsage.org/publications...
www.russellsage.org/publications...
June 28, 2025 at 3:39 PM
As the Senate GOP moves forward with the reconciliation bill, some (most?) of the lessons from the Affordable Care Act about public opinion--which I highlighted in my book "Stable Condition"--still apply.
www.russellsage.org/publications...
www.russellsage.org/publications...
I wish I had more & more recent data, but here is a table showing wave-2 Democratic NYC respondents' first and second choices.
* Cuomo backers way more likely to be undecided on 2nd choice.
* 45% of Mamdani backers -> Lander 2nd
* Lander voters roughly split between Mamdani, Stringer 2nd
* Cuomo backers way more likely to be undecided on 2nd choice.
* 45% of Mamdani backers -> Lander 2nd
* Lander voters roughly split between Mamdani, Stringer 2nd
June 24, 2025 at 12:58 PM
I wish I had more & more recent data, but here is a table showing wave-2 Democratic NYC respondents' first and second choices.
* Cuomo backers way more likely to be undecided on 2nd choice.
* 45% of Mamdani backers -> Lander 2nd
* Lander voters roughly split between Mamdani, Stringer 2nd
* Cuomo backers way more likely to be undecided on 2nd choice.
* 45% of Mamdani backers -> Lander 2nd
* Lander voters roughly split between Mamdani, Stringer 2nd