Derek J. Grossman
@derekjgrossman.bsky.social
National security and Indo-Pacific analysis @RANDCorporation. Professor @dornsife.usc.edu. Words in @foreignpolicy.com, @asia.nikkei.com, @foreignaffairs.com, etc. Views mine.
Pinned
Trump's early moves should give Taiwan confidence
Continued arms sales and security cooperation would help alleviate some fears
asia.nikkei.com
Taiwan is jittery about Trump, but should take a deep breath and consider the bright side. Trump admin's statements and actions have been consistent with previous admins, which have been highly supportive of Taiwan. My latest for
@asia.nikkei.com explains.
asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Trum...
@asia.nikkei.com explains.
asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Trum...
VP Vance and family will visit India next week.
www.indiatoday.in/india/story/...
www.indiatoday.in/india/story/...
JD Vance's India visit: Meeting with PM, trip to Jaipur, Agra on the cards
During the India visit, JD Vance will meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi and will also make trips to key cultural sites such as Jaipur and Agra.
www.indiatoday.in
April 16, 2025 at 4:35 PM
VP Vance and family will visit India next week.
www.indiatoday.in/india/story/...
www.indiatoday.in/india/story/...
North Korea has surprisingly become a major factor in Russia's war against Ukraine.
"The majority of artillery shells used by Russian forces in Ukraine in 2024 were manufactured in North Korea..."
kyivindependent.com/north-korean...
"The majority of artillery shells used by Russian forces in Ukraine in 2024 were manufactured in North Korea..."
kyivindependent.com/north-korean...
North Korean artillery now dominates Russia's ammunition supply in war against Ukraine, investigation says
The majority of artillery shells used by Russian forces in Ukraine in 2024 were manufactured in North Korea, according to a joint investigation by Reuters and the Open Source Center (OPS), published o...
kyivindependent.com
April 16, 2025 at 4:33 PM
North Korea has surprisingly become a major factor in Russia's war against Ukraine.
"The majority of artillery shells used by Russian forces in Ukraine in 2024 were manufactured in North Korea..."
kyivindependent.com/north-korean...
"The majority of artillery shells used by Russian forces in Ukraine in 2024 were manufactured in North Korea..."
kyivindependent.com/north-korean...
China's CPTTP bid is solely meant "to block Taipei's application," according to Taiwan's MOFA.
Of course it is.
focustaiwan.tw/politics/202...
Of course it is.
focustaiwan.tw/politics/202...
China's CPTPP bid to block Taiwan's application: MOFA - Focus Taiwan
A key factor pushing China's bid to join a regional trade bloc that Taiwan also aspires to is to "block Taipei's application," warned a senior Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) official on Tuesday.
focustaiwan.tw
April 16, 2025 at 2:50 PM
China's CPTTP bid is solely meant "to block Taipei's application," according to Taiwan's MOFA.
Of course it is.
focustaiwan.tw/politics/202...
Of course it is.
focustaiwan.tw/politics/202...
"Indonesia won’t allow Russian planes to be stationed on its territory, Australia’s Defence Minister Richard Marles said following earlier reports that Moscow had requested permission to access a provincial base in the archipelago."
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Australia Says Indonesia Ruled Out Base for Russian Aircraft
Indonesia said it won’t allow Russian planes to be stationed on its territory, after earlier reports that Moscow had requested permission to access a provincial base in the archipelago stoked concern ...
www.bloomberg.com
April 16, 2025 at 2:44 PM
"Indonesia won’t allow Russian planes to be stationed on its territory, Australia’s Defence Minister Richard Marles said following earlier reports that Moscow had requested permission to access a provincial base in the archipelago."
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Malaysian PM Anwar amid Xi visit: “We stand with the Chinese government, for the well-being of our people and for our national economic interests, as well as the overall development and stability of our country.”
t.co/EMHPL5HuSm
t.co/EMHPL5HuSm
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3306737/xis-visit-malaysia-stands-china-amid-us-tariff-threat-anwar-says
t.co
April 16, 2025 at 12:32 PM
Malaysian PM Anwar amid Xi visit: “We stand with the Chinese government, for the well-being of our people and for our national economic interests, as well as the overall development and stability of our country.”
t.co/EMHPL5HuSm
t.co/EMHPL5HuSm
“Manila voiced concerns on maritime incidents endangering its vessels in the West Philippine Sea during negotiations it hosted last week aimed at making progress on the ASEAN-China South China Sea code of conduct.”
t.co/8GOPI1TGGn
t.co/8GOPI1TGGn
https://qa.philstar.com/headlines/2025/04/14/2435962/philippines-hosts-talks-long-awaited-south-china-sea-code-conduct
t.co
April 16, 2025 at 4:37 AM
“Manila voiced concerns on maritime incidents endangering its vessels in the West Philippine Sea during negotiations it hosted last week aimed at making progress on the ASEAN-China South China Sea code of conduct.”
t.co/8GOPI1TGGn
t.co/8GOPI1TGGn
"Vietnam will host [Chinese] DM Dong Jun for a military exchange next week, marking his second visit to the country in four months..."
www.scmp.com/news/china/m...
www.scmp.com/news/china/m...
China’s defence chief to visit Vietnam for military exchange and joint patrol
The activities will coincide with Xi Jinping’s state visit to the Southeast Asian country as Beijing seeks to bolster regional ties.
www.scmp.com
April 11, 2025 at 6:03 PM
"Vietnam will host [Chinese] DM Dong Jun for a military exchange next week, marking his second visit to the country in four months..."
www.scmp.com/news/china/m...
www.scmp.com/news/china/m...
"Influence" in global affairs is when one country can get another to do something in the first country's interest. Here's a good example. After threat of tariffs, Vietnam is preparing to crack down on Chinese goods being shipped to US via its territory.
www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...
www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...
Exclusive: Facing Trump tariffs, Vietnam eyes crackdown on some China trade
The offer came as senior U.S. officials raised concerns about Chinese goods being sent to America with "Made in Vietnam" labels that draw lower duties.
www.reuters.com
April 11, 2025 at 5:58 PM
"Influence" in global affairs is when one country can get another to do something in the first country's interest. Here's a good example. After threat of tariffs, Vietnam is preparing to crack down on Chinese goods being shipped to US via its territory.
www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...
www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...
"Taiwan is to be included in the first batch of trading partners to hold talks with Washington, President Lai Ching-te said on Friday, as his economy minister said the island could import over $200 billion worth of U.S. goods, much of it in energy."
www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...
www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...
Taiwan to be one of first to talk tariffs with US, president says
Taiwan is to be included in the first batch of trading partners to hold talks with Washington, President Lai Ching-te said on Friday, as his economy minister said the island could import over $200 billion worth of U.S. goods, much of it in energy.
www.reuters.com
April 11, 2025 at 5:49 PM
"Taiwan is to be included in the first batch of trading partners to hold talks with Washington, President Lai Ching-te said on Friday, as his economy minister said the island could import over $200 billion worth of U.S. goods, much of it in energy."
www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...
www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...
Trump once again questions the utility of the US-Japan alliance, this time amid trade talks.
english.kyodonews.net/news/2025/04...
english.kyodonews.net/news/2025/04...
Trump calls U.S.-Japan defense pact "one-sided" as tariff talks loom
U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday renewed his complaint that the decades-old U.S.-Japan security treaty is "so one-sided" as Washington and Tokyo are set to negotiate a deal over his t...
english.kyodonews.net
April 11, 2025 at 3:49 PM
Trump once again questions the utility of the US-Japan alliance, this time amid trade talks.
english.kyodonews.net/news/2025/04...
english.kyodonews.net/news/2025/04...
"Washington must recognize that Beijing’s military expansion in the Indian Ocean poses a long-term risk to the interests of the US and its partners...A central goal of a new US strategy for the Indian Ocean should be building collective military power."
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
America Needs a Real Indian Ocean Strategy
The Quad was a good start, but China’s growing influence demands more security cooperation.
www.foreignaffairs.com
April 11, 2025 at 1:00 AM
"Washington must recognize that Beijing’s military expansion in the Indian Ocean poses a long-term risk to the interests of the US and its partners...A central goal of a new US strategy for the Indian Ocean should be building collective military power."
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
"Southeast Asian leaders, their export-driven economies in peril, are trying to placate the president. 'We may have to comply,' Thailand’s finance minister said."
www.nytimes.com/2025/04/10/w...
www.nytimes.com/2025/04/10/w...
Southeast Asia, With Little Leverage, Seeks to Placate Trump on Trade
Southeast Asian leaders, their export-driven economies in peril, are trying to placate the president. “We may have to comply,” Thailand’s finance minister said.
www.nytimes.com
April 10, 2025 at 11:32 PM
"Southeast Asian leaders, their export-driven economies in peril, are trying to placate the president. 'We may have to comply,' Thailand’s finance minister said."
www.nytimes.com/2025/04/10/w...
www.nytimes.com/2025/04/10/w...
"[Japanese PM] Ishiba’s peaceful approach faces scrutiny at home, with leaders of opposition parties and even some of his own LDP colleagues criticizing him for being too weak while calling for a more muscular response to the Trump tariffs."
www.japantimes.co.jp/business/202...
www.japantimes.co.jp/business/202...
Trump's tariff gambit leaves Asia stunned and scrambling
Tariffs take time to actually affect prices and trade flows, but financial markets are already responding to the possibility of severe economic dislocation.
www.japantimes.co.jp
April 10, 2025 at 11:04 PM
"[Japanese PM] Ishiba’s peaceful approach faces scrutiny at home, with leaders of opposition parties and even some of his own LDP colleagues criticizing him for being too weak while calling for a more muscular response to the Trump tariffs."
www.japantimes.co.jp/business/202...
www.japantimes.co.jp/business/202...
Trump on South Korea's response to tariffs: "We have the confines and probability of a great DEAL for both countries. Their top TEAM is on a plane heading to the U.S., and things are looking good."
www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...
www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...
Trump optimistic after call about tariffs with South Korea
U.S. President Donald Trump said he discussed tariffs, shipbuilding and potential energy deals in a "great call" with South Korea's acting President Han Duck-soo on Tuesday, a day before a 25% tariff on the Asian ally is scheduled to kick in.
www.reuters.com
April 10, 2025 at 9:24 PM
Trump on South Korea's response to tariffs: "We have the confines and probability of a great DEAL for both countries. Their top TEAM is on a plane heading to the U.S., and things are looking good."
www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...
www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...
Russia invited Modi to attend the Victory Day celebrations in Moscow on May 9, commemorating the 80th anniversary of the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany.
timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/russia...
timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/russia...
Russia invites PM Modi to May 9 victory day parade in Moscow | India News - The Times of India
India News: Russia has formally invited Prime Minister Narendra Modi to attend the Victory Day celebrations in Moscow on May 9, commemorating the 80th anniversary
timesofindia.indiatimes.com
April 10, 2025 at 5:49 PM
Russia invited Modi to attend the Victory Day celebrations in Moscow on May 9, commemorating the 80th anniversary of the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany.
timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/russia...
timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/russia...
India-Russia relations keep humming along.
economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy...
economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy...
India, Russia agree on six new strategic projects to boost bilateral investment cooperation
India and Russia have agreed on six new strategic projects to boost bilateral investment during the 8th India-Russia Working Group session in New Delhi. Officials reaffirmed economic cooperation and r...
economictimes.indiatimes.com
April 10, 2025 at 5:46 PM
India-Russia relations keep humming along.
economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy...
economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy...
Trump tariff response. "Planned US tariffs could reduce Indonesia's potential growth by 0.3 to 0.5 percentage points, but a 90-day pause in implementing the levies allows time to discuss solutions, Indonesia's finance minister told Reuters on Thursday."
www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/indones...
www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/indones...
US tariffs may cut Indonesia growth by up to 0.5 percentage points: Finance Minister
KUALA LUMPUR: Planned United States tariffs could reduce Indonesia's potential growth by 0.3 to 0.5 percentage points, but a 90-day pause in implementing the levies allows time to discuss solutions, I...
www.channelnewsasia.com
April 10, 2025 at 5:39 PM
Trump tariff response. "Planned US tariffs could reduce Indonesia's potential growth by 0.3 to 0.5 percentage points, but a 90-day pause in implementing the levies allows time to discuss solutions, Indonesia's finance minister told Reuters on Thursday."
www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/indones...
www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/indones...
"South Korea's top trade envoy Cheong In-kyo said on Thursday that U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff reprieve had provided room for negotiations, as the country seeks to reduce tariffs through talks."
www.reuters.com/world/south-...
www.reuters.com/world/south-...
South Korea trade envoy says Trump's tariff pause leaves room for negotiations
South Korea's top trade envoy Cheong In-kyo said on Thursday that U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff reprieve had provided room for negotiations, as the country seeks to reduce tariffs through talks.
www.reuters.com
April 10, 2025 at 5:36 PM
"South Korea's top trade envoy Cheong In-kyo said on Thursday that U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff reprieve had provided room for negotiations, as the country seeks to reduce tariffs through talks."
www.reuters.com/world/south-...
www.reuters.com/world/south-...
"A Bangladesh court on Thursday issued a fresh arrest warrant against ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, her daughter Saima Wajed Putul, and 17 others in connection with a graft case involving alleged fraudulent acquisition of a residential plot."
indianexpress.com/article/worl...
indianexpress.com/article/worl...
Bangladesh court issues new arrest warrant against ousted PM Sheikh Hasina in graft case
The Awami League government, led by Hasina for 16 years, was overthrown in August last year following a student-led uprising.
indianexpress.com
April 10, 2025 at 5:32 PM
"A Bangladesh court on Thursday issued a fresh arrest warrant against ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, her daughter Saima Wajed Putul, and 17 others in connection with a graft case involving alleged fraudulent acquisition of a residential plot."
indianexpress.com/article/worl...
indianexpress.com/article/worl...
Palau still has faith in America's position in the Pacific Islands region.
www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...
www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...
Palau, escaping Trump tariffs, says strong US good for Pacific
The president of the tiny Pacific Islands nation of Palau, one of the few countries to escape U.S. tariffs, said he remains "positive" the Trump Administration will keep a strong focus on the region and not permanently retreat.
www.reuters.com
April 10, 2025 at 5:31 PM
Palau still has faith in America's position in the Pacific Islands region.
www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...
www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...
Jaishankar says India-China ties are now "much better than before."
timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/eam-ja...
timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/eam-ja...
EAM Jaishankar: India-China ties are now 'much better than before' | India News - The Times of India
India News: NEW DELHI: External affairs minister S Jaishankar said Wednesday India-China ties now are "much better than before" and moving in the right direction,.
timesofindia.indiatimes.com
April 10, 2025 at 5:31 PM
Jaishankar says India-China ties are now "much better than before."
timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/eam-ja...
timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/eam-ja...
"Taiwan state-backed bodies could over the next decade buy an extra $200 billion from the United States and bump up the percentage of LNG it gets from the county by one-third to help narrow the trade deficit, the economy minister said on Thursday."
www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...
www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...
Taiwan could buy $200 billion more from US, increase LNG imports as part of trade deal
Taiwan state-backed bodies could over the next decade buy an extra $200 billion from the United States and bump up the percentage of LNG it gets from the county by one-third to help narrow the trade deficit, the economy minister said on Thursday.
www.reuters.com
April 10, 2025 at 5:25 PM
"Taiwan state-backed bodies could over the next decade buy an extra $200 billion from the United States and bump up the percentage of LNG it gets from the county by one-third to help narrow the trade deficit, the economy minister said on Thursday."
www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...
www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...
According to the Acting ASD for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs, the Pentagon is "working to prioritize our security systems to Taiwan."
www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/a...
www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/a...
Pentagon vows stronger defense ties with Taiwan - Taipei Times
Bringing Taiwan to the World and the World to Taiwan
www.taipeitimes.com
April 10, 2025 at 5:23 PM
According to the Acting ASD for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs, the Pentagon is "working to prioritize our security systems to Taiwan."
www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/a...
www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/a...
"DPP legislators yesterday warned that a KMT proposal to create a 'free-trade zone' on outlying islands could undermine Taiwan’s efforts to create a “non-red supply chain” by opening a “back door” for Chinese companies evading US tariffs."
www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/...
www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/...
KMT free-trade zone may create a ‘back door’: DPP - Taipei Times
Bringing Taiwan to the World and the World to Taiwan
www.taipeitimes.com
April 10, 2025 at 5:21 PM
"DPP legislators yesterday warned that a KMT proposal to create a 'free-trade zone' on outlying islands could undermine Taiwan’s efforts to create a “non-red supply chain” by opening a “back door” for Chinese companies evading US tariffs."
www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/...
www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/...
"Pakistan is stepping up efforts to reset ties with Bangladesh amid growing Chinese influence in the region."
www.indiatoday.in/world/story/...
www.indiatoday.in/world/story/...
Pakistan moves to reset ties with Bangladesh as China factor grows
Pakistan Foreign Minister's visit to Dhaka comes at a time when Bangladesh has shown intentions to grow closer to China, making India wary.
www.indiatoday.in
April 9, 2025 at 6:12 PM
"Pakistan is stepping up efforts to reset ties with Bangladesh amid growing Chinese influence in the region."
www.indiatoday.in/world/story/...
www.indiatoday.in/world/story/...