Derek Grifka
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derekgrifka.bsky.social
Derek Grifka
@derekgrifka.bsky.social
Data Scientist. Marquette basketball enjoyer.
https://dgrifka.github.io
Creator of https://bsky.app/profile/mlb-simulator.bsky.social
I'm excited to announce I've accepted a role as Data Scientist for the Chicago Fire.

Thanks to everyone who has given me feedback and advice. I'm ecstatic to be able to learn from/work with some very bright individuals and contribute to the success of a storied MLS franchise!
March 24, 2025 at 12:19 PM
Obviously, this assumes each Super Bowl is independent and identically distributed, which is false, but good enough for this exercise. We essentially calculate the probability of NOT seeing a Super Bowl by each age:
February 4, 2025 at 2:44 PM
I'm a Houston Texans fan and have never seen my team win the Super Bowl, which made me think:
If you were born today, then how likely is it that you would be alive to see your favorite team win the Super Bowl?
You have a 50% chance of seeing your team win 1 by age 22.
#NFL #SBLIX
February 4, 2025 at 2:43 PM
Why this two-way player had one of the best seasons of all time….but it’s not who you think 🧵
January 24, 2025 at 1:29 AM
Skeptical of Notre Dame's "middle 8" advantage, I thought good teams dominate throughout.
But data shows ND scores 3-18 more points (89% confidence) in these minutes vs other periods.
Whether or not this matters, they do in fact score more in the middle 8.

www.wsj.com/sports/footb...
January 22, 2025 at 3:54 AM
When McLellan took over, the Red Wings were .433. Since then? 8-4.

Using a Beta-Binomial model with a .500 prior, there's an 81% chance they're now truly an above-.500 team.

Best estimate of their true win rate: .591 (90% CI: .418-.755)
January 21, 2025 at 12:02 AM
Hockey is cool
December 31, 2024 at 11:50 PM