Ball In The Box
@denisdervishi.bsky.social
A football analytics enthusiast with his blogs and analysis. Founder of the FMD Simulator: https://football-md.com/. Contact: denisdervishi@gmail.com.
👹Manchester United are now on 4 wins in a row after beating Spurs, meaning Frank Ilett's (The United Strand) challenge is closer than ever to ending.
5️⃣It got me curious, so I checked how would he look if he supported any of the other top (or relegation) teams.
5️⃣It got me curious, so I checked how would he look if he supported any of the other top (or relegation) teams.
February 7, 2026 at 3:25 PM
👹Manchester United are now on 4 wins in a row after beating Spurs, meaning Frank Ilett's (The United Strand) challenge is closer than ever to ending.
5️⃣It got me curious, so I checked how would he look if he supported any of the other top (or relegation) teams.
5️⃣It got me curious, so I checked how would he look if he supported any of the other top (or relegation) teams.
⛔Cristiano Ronaldo is refusing to play for Al Nassr and his future at the club is uncertain.
🏆One of the main reasons could lie with the chances he has of winning the Saudi Pro League with Al Nassr.
🗓️Last time Al Nassr won the Saudi Pro League was in the 2018/2019 season.
🏆One of the main reasons could lie with the chances he has of winning the Saudi Pro League with Al Nassr.
🗓️Last time Al Nassr won the Saudi Pro League was in the 2018/2019 season.
February 6, 2026 at 5:41 PM
⛔Cristiano Ronaldo is refusing to play for Al Nassr and his future at the club is uncertain.
🏆One of the main reasons could lie with the chances he has of winning the Saudi Pro League with Al Nassr.
🗓️Last time Al Nassr won the Saudi Pro League was in the 2018/2019 season.
🏆One of the main reasons could lie with the chances he has of winning the Saudi Pro League with Al Nassr.
🗓️Last time Al Nassr won the Saudi Pro League was in the 2018/2019 season.
🛑Leicester City just got a six-point deduction for financial breaches.
⚠️That deduction increases their relegation chances by 10,8 percentage points.
⚠️That deduction increases their relegation chances by 10,8 percentage points.
February 6, 2026 at 9:57 AM
🛑Leicester City just got a six-point deduction for financial breaches.
⚠️That deduction increases their relegation chances by 10,8 percentage points.
⚠️That deduction increases their relegation chances by 10,8 percentage points.
📈 Hoffenheim is in really good form with strong chances of securing a Top 4 and a return to the Champions League after a 7 season absence.
5️⃣ There is also a 37,4 % chance according to Opta that Bundesliga gets the fifth spot for the Champions League.
5️⃣ There is also a 37,4 % chance according to Opta that Bundesliga gets the fifth spot for the Champions League.
February 5, 2026 at 5:51 PM
📈 Hoffenheim is in really good form with strong chances of securing a Top 4 and a return to the Champions League after a 7 season absence.
5️⃣ There is also a 37,4 % chance according to Opta that Bundesliga gets the fifth spot for the Champions League.
5️⃣ There is also a 37,4 % chance according to Opta that Bundesliga gets the fifth spot for the Champions League.
🍿Nottingham Forest could potentially do what Tottenham Hotspur almost managed last season.
❌🏆Get relegated to the Championship and win the Europa League in the same season.
🍀 According to my Simulator there is a 0,5% chance of that happening.
❌🏆Get relegated to the Championship and win the Europa League in the same season.
🍀 According to my Simulator there is a 0,5% chance of that happening.
February 5, 2026 at 5:19 PM
🍿Nottingham Forest could potentially do what Tottenham Hotspur almost managed last season.
❌🏆Get relegated to the Championship and win the Europa League in the same season.
🍀 According to my Simulator there is a 0,5% chance of that happening.
❌🏆Get relegated to the Championship and win the Europa League in the same season.
🍀 According to my Simulator there is a 0,5% chance of that happening.
🥇🥈🥉Probabilities of winning a medal at the World Cup 2026 for the top four teams.
⏮️ There is a 2.2% chance of a repeat final from the World Cup 2022 between France and Argentina!
⏮️ There is a 2.2% chance of a repeat final from the World Cup 2022 between France and Argentina!
February 4, 2026 at 3:33 PM
🥇🥈🥉Probabilities of winning a medal at the World Cup 2026 for the top four teams.
⏮️ There is a 2.2% chance of a repeat final from the World Cup 2022 between France and Argentina!
⏮️ There is a 2.2% chance of a repeat final from the World Cup 2022 between France and Argentina!
📈Probability Evolution for the Top 4 spots in the Premier League this season. Who will get that fourth spot?
📊 FMD Simulator link in bio.
📊 FMD Simulator link in bio.
February 4, 2026 at 2:06 PM
📈Probability Evolution for the Top 4 spots in the Premier League this season. Who will get that fourth spot?
📊 FMD Simulator link in bio.
📊 FMD Simulator link in bio.
📊Knockout stage probabilities for the Top 8 teams in the Champions League and the Europa League.
⏮️ Last season PSG won the Champions League and they were 11th in the league stage while Europa League was won by Tottenham who was 4th.
🏆Can Arsenal and Aston Villa win it?
⏮️ Last season PSG won the Champions League and they were 11th in the league stage while Europa League was won by Tottenham who was 4th.
🏆Can Arsenal and Aston Villa win it?
February 3, 2026 at 3:50 PM
📊Knockout stage probabilities for the Top 8 teams in the Champions League and the Europa League.
⏮️ Last season PSG won the Champions League and they were 11th in the league stage while Europa League was won by Tottenham who was 4th.
🏆Can Arsenal and Aston Villa win it?
⏮️ Last season PSG won the Champions League and they were 11th in the league stage while Europa League was won by Tottenham who was 4th.
🏆Can Arsenal and Aston Villa win it?
📈Probability Evolution for the title chances in La Liga 2025/2026 created using the FMD Simulator together with some of the key matches.
📊 FMD Simulator link in bio.
📊 FMD Simulator link in bio.
February 3, 2026 at 3:23 PM
📈Probability Evolution for the title chances in La Liga 2025/2026 created using the FMD Simulator together with some of the key matches.
📊 FMD Simulator link in bio.
📊 FMD Simulator link in bio.
What are the chances your team actually makes it?
I built a site that runs 10k simulations of the season to find out.
⚽️ football-md.com
I built a site that runs 10k simulations of the season to find out.
⚽️ football-md.com
September 5, 2025 at 11:41 AM
What are the chances your team actually makes it?
I built a site that runs 10k simulations of the season to find out.
⚽️ football-md.com
I built a site that runs 10k simulations of the season to find out.
⚽️ football-md.com
Has football become boring? I made a small analysis here:
medium.com/@denisdervis...
medium.com/@denisdervis...
Did Football become boring?
Analysing the Impact of the Data Revolution in Football
medium.com
January 31, 2025 at 4:40 PM
Has football become boring? I made a small analysis here:
medium.com/@denisdervis...
medium.com/@denisdervis...
Tracking data provides detailed insights into player movements and team tactics by capturing the positions of all players and the ball every 0.1 seconds. I showcased how this data can be used in my post below: medium.com/@denisdervis...
Champions League Final 2023: Tracking Data Striker Analysis
Tracking data in football captures the movements of all 22 players and the ball, recorded at intervals as short as 0.1 seconds. This…
medium.com
January 14, 2025 at 8:24 AM
Tracking data provides detailed insights into player movements and team tactics by capturing the positions of all players and the ball every 0.1 seconds. I showcased how this data can be used in my post below: medium.com/@denisdervis...
In 2018 Liverpool lost the Champions League Final and also lost Coutinho and Can. I built a model that tries to replace those players and get the team to the next level. Check it out here: medium.com/@denisdervis...
Klopp’s Gegenpress in 2018: Finding the perfect signing
As an aspiring football data analyst, I make reports and predictions based on the available data. Sometimes finding the data is the hardest…
medium.com
January 13, 2025 at 9:20 AM
In 2018 Liverpool lost the Champions League Final and also lost Coutinho and Can. I built a model that tries to replace those players and get the team to the next level. Check it out here: medium.com/@denisdervis...
Looking back at the 2022 World Cup and Croatia's Bronze medal I was interested in analysing the contribution that the HNL (Croatia's First League) players had. If you're interested, you can check out my analysis here: medium.com/@denisdervis...
Croatia’s 2022 World Cup Journey: The Key Role of HNL Players in Their Historic Run
In 2018, Croatia’s national football team went on a historic run to the final of the World Cup, where France beat them. For a country of…
medium.com
January 7, 2025 at 4:20 PM
Looking back at the 2022 World Cup and Croatia's Bronze medal I was interested in analysing the contribution that the HNL (Croatia's First League) players had. If you're interested, you can check out my analysis here: medium.com/@denisdervis...