David Ubilava
@davidubilava.bsky.social
Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Sydney. Agricultural Economics, Food and Commodity Markets, Climate, Conflict.
https://davidubilava.com
https://davidubilava.com
6/ The most robust result is an increase of up to ten percent in violence against civilians in rice-producing regions during harvest season. We also show that this effect is driven by rural areas with rainfed agriculture.
March 20, 2025 at 10:41 AM
6/ The most robust result is an increase of up to ten percent in violence against civilians in rice-producing regions during harvest season. We also show that this effect is driven by rural areas with rainfed agriculture.
4/ We analyze 86,000+ violent incidents across 8 Southeast Asian countries over the 2010–2023 period.
March 20, 2025 at 10:41 AM
4/ We analyze 86,000+ violent incidents across 8 Southeast Asian countries over the 2010–2023 period.
Why do ENSO events impact conflict in Africa? The answer lies in teleconnections: El Niño events often worsen agricultural weather in key crop-producing African regions. [8/13]
December 4, 2024 at 12:39 AM
Why do ENSO events impact conflict in Africa? The answer lies in teleconnections: El Niño events often worsen agricultural weather in key crop-producing African regions. [8/13]
A moderate El Niño event (a 1°C increase in sea surface temperatures in the Niño3.4 region) leads to a 3% reduction in postharvest armed violence against civilians (one-sided) or between actors (two-sided) in croplands. This effect is (i) scalable, (ii) symmetrical, and (iii) agricultural. [2/13]
December 4, 2024 at 12:39 AM
A moderate El Niño event (a 1°C increase in sea surface temperatures in the Niño3.4 region) leads to a 3% reduction in postharvest armed violence against civilians (one-sided) or between actors (two-sided) in croplands. This effect is (i) scalable, (ii) symmetrical, and (iii) agricultural. [2/13]
📢Workshop Announcement
The 2nd Social Conflict and Political Economy (SCoPE) Workshop will take place at the University of Sydney on June 3-4, 2025. Please submit your papers by email to scope.conference@sydney.edu.au by 31 January 2025.
dubilava.github.io/Calls/SCoPE_...
The 2nd Social Conflict and Political Economy (SCoPE) Workshop will take place at the University of Sydney on June 3-4, 2025. Please submit your papers by email to scope.conference@sydney.edu.au by 31 January 2025.
dubilava.github.io/Calls/SCoPE_...
November 11, 2024 at 3:29 AM
📢Workshop Announcement
The 2nd Social Conflict and Political Economy (SCoPE) Workshop will take place at the University of Sydney on June 3-4, 2025. Please submit your papers by email to scope.conference@sydney.edu.au by 31 January 2025.
dubilava.github.io/Calls/SCoPE_...
The 2nd Social Conflict and Political Economy (SCoPE) Workshop will take place at the University of Sydney on June 3-4, 2025. Please submit your papers by email to scope.conference@sydney.edu.au by 31 January 2025.
dubilava.github.io/Calls/SCoPE_...
how it started how it's going
October 22, 2024 at 10:46 PM
how it started how it's going
Harvest time conflict doesn't happen in a political vacuum, insofar as changes in conflict at harvest time follow the incidence of conflict during the crop growing season.
August 8, 2024 at 4:15 AM
Harvest time conflict doesn't happen in a political vacuum, insofar as changes in conflict at harvest time follow the incidence of conflict during the crop growing season.
... and the effects are largely driven by cells with rainfed agriculture.
August 8, 2024 at 4:12 AM
... and the effects are largely driven by cells with rainfed agriculture.
The harvest-time increase in political violence happens in rural areas...
August 8, 2024 at 4:10 AM
The harvest-time increase in political violence happens in rural areas...
We then compare presumably good harvest years with not-so-good ones, based on growing season rainfall. Different forms of conflict respond differently to deviations from the average rainfall during the crop-growing season.
August 8, 2024 at 4:02 AM
We then compare presumably good harvest years with not-so-good ones, based on growing season rainfall. Different forms of conflict respond differently to deviations from the average rainfall during the crop-growing season.
We match conflict data with rice harvest calendars.
August 8, 2024 at 3:58 AM
We match conflict data with rice harvest calendars.
The geographic unit of observation is a one-degree cell. Our data covers 376 cells. Again, there is a fair bit of conflict in many parts of the region, although some countries are more conflict-prone than others.
August 8, 2024 at 3:56 AM
The geographic unit of observation is a one-degree cell. Our data covers 376 cells. Again, there is a fair bit of conflict in many parts of the region, although some countries are more conflict-prone than others.
We use monthly data from 2010 to 2023 on over 86,000 incidents across eight Southeast Asian countries. Lots of conflict, especially in recent years.
August 8, 2024 at 3:52 AM
We use monthly data from 2010 to 2023 on over 86,000 incidents across eight Southeast Asian countries. Lots of conflict, especially in recent years.
The "cubic model" strikes again.
August 5, 2024 at 1:17 PM
The "cubic model" strikes again.
Part of the reason (albeit a small part) is that most models did not predict El Nino, at least not as strong as it turned out to be.
January 6, 2024 at 4:23 AM
Part of the reason (albeit a small part) is that most models did not predict El Nino, at least not as strong as it turned out to be.
Main effect (evaluated at average cropland size and average exposure of local weather to El Nino shocks):
November 29, 2023 at 10:54 PM
Main effect (evaluated at average cropland size and average exposure of local weather to El Nino shocks):
The areas with crop agriculture and the timing of the harvest season:
November 29, 2023 at 10:52 PM
The areas with crop agriculture and the timing of the harvest season:
Received good news from the Australian Research Council this -- our project was awarded. We will investigate linkages between political conflict and food markets and prices, focusing on food crises in Africa and Southeast Asia. Excited about the opportunity and thankful for the support!
October 30, 2023 at 10:39 AM
Received good news from the Australian Research Council this -- our project was awarded. We will investigate linkages between political conflict and food markets and prices, focusing on food crises in Africa and Southeast Asia. Excited about the opportunity and thankful for the support!
Has anyone ever pulled off anything as spectacular as this? Well done, and congrats!
October 9, 2023 at 10:22 AM
Has anyone ever pulled off anything as spectacular as this? Well done, and congrats!
Earlier I suggested six names who are likely to win Nobel in Economics this year. This guess is based on the historical Bates Clark to Nobel relationship. These names are currently within, what I call, the Nobel Territory.
October 3, 2023 at 11:49 AM
Earlier I suggested six names who are likely to win Nobel in Economics this year. This guess is based on the historical Bates Clark to Nobel relationship. These names are currently within, what I call, the Nobel Territory.
Parents of young children going to work after the long weekend.
October 2, 2023 at 7:37 AM
Parents of young children going to work after the long weekend.
Here you go (based on the eight months of data):
September 22, 2023 at 4:38 AM
Here you go (based on the eight months of data):