David R. Kotok
@davidkotok.bsky.social
Co-Founder & Strategic Advisor at Cumberland Advisors ▫ Economist ▫ Fisherman ▫ Investor ▫ Author ▫ See my new book, "The Fed and the Flu: Parsing Pandemic Economic Shocks" https://www.thefedandtheflu.com.
Join me today, 1PM - 2PM EST. for an investment conversation addressing the structural forces & tail risks that create generational opportunities & threats plus the potential reshaping of global systems & economic shocks.
Join us here: www.linkedin.com/events/74060...
#Markets #Investing #Economy
Join us here: www.linkedin.com/events/74060...
#Markets #Investing #Economy
December 17, 2025 at 3:57 PM
Join me today, 1PM - 2PM EST. for an investment conversation addressing the structural forces & tail risks that create generational opportunities & threats plus the potential reshaping of global systems & economic shocks.
Join us here: www.linkedin.com/events/74060...
#Markets #Investing #Economy
Join us here: www.linkedin.com/events/74060...
#Markets #Investing #Economy
I would be delighted if you'd attend our conversation this Wednesday, Dec 17, 2025, 1:00 PM - 2:00 PM EST. www.linkedin.com/events/74060...
Traditional investment commentary often focuses only on quarterly earnings and near-term catalysts. This conversation will be different.
Traditional investment commentary often focuses only on quarterly earnings and near-term catalysts. This conversation will be different.
December 15, 2025 at 3:39 PM
I would be delighted if you'd attend our conversation this Wednesday, Dec 17, 2025, 1:00 PM - 2:00 PM EST. www.linkedin.com/events/74060...
Traditional investment commentary often focuses only on quarterly earnings and near-term catalysts. This conversation will be different.
Traditional investment commentary often focuses only on quarterly earnings and near-term catalysts. This conversation will be different.
“Yes, I'm worried about the economy,” Kotok said. “I don't expect inflation to subside, roll over and go down to some very low level. I do expect economic shocks out of an economy that is being shocked daily.” www.usatoday.com/story/money/...
December 4, 2025 at 9:32 PM
“Yes, I'm worried about the economy,” Kotok said. “I don't expect inflation to subside, roll over and go down to some very low level. I do expect economic shocks out of an economy that is being shocked daily.” www.usatoday.com/story/money/...
Crescent moon setting over Lido Key, FL.
November 26, 2025 at 3:29 AM
Crescent moon setting over Lido Key, FL.
The male largemouth bass migrate into Lake Okeechobee and start the process of building nests along the fronts of the weed beds. You can see the marks on their bellies from their actions of moving/scraping the bottom around. After a few weeks the females arrive.
dkotok.substack.com/p/a-florida-...
dkotok.substack.com/p/a-florida-...
November 17, 2025 at 1:15 PM
The male largemouth bass migrate into Lake Okeechobee and start the process of building nests along the fronts of the weed beds. You can see the marks on their bellies from their actions of moving/scraping the bottom around. After a few weeks the females arrive.
dkotok.substack.com/p/a-florida-...
dkotok.substack.com/p/a-florida-...
Thank you, Callie, for the nice mention.
Callie Cox: A Student Teacher of Financial Markets
www.morningstar.com/personal-fin...
Callie Cox: A Student Teacher of Financial Markets
www.morningstar.com/personal-fin...
November 13, 2025 at 6:34 PM
Thank you, Callie, for the nice mention.
Callie Cox: A Student Teacher of Financial Markets
www.morningstar.com/personal-fin...
Callie Cox: A Student Teacher of Financial Markets
www.morningstar.com/personal-fin...
Casualties include Russian citizens who were duped (bribed) into signing “volunteer” military contracts, thousands in the North Korean contingent that were used as “cannon fodder.”
As longtime readers know, I hosted a Ukrainian soldier and his wife in Maine at the annual Camp Kotok gathering.
As longtime readers know, I hosted a Ukrainian soldier and his wife in Maine at the annual Camp Kotok gathering.
November 9, 2025 at 3:36 PM
Casualties include Russian citizens who were duped (bribed) into signing “volunteer” military contracts, thousands in the North Korean contingent that were used as “cannon fodder.”
As longtime readers know, I hosted a Ukrainian soldier and his wife in Maine at the annual Camp Kotok gathering.
As longtime readers know, I hosted a Ukrainian soldier and his wife in Maine at the annual Camp Kotok gathering.
Putin and his ilk manipulate media in the West while they are guilty of horrendous war crimes. I have heard of these crimes directly from Ukrainian eyewitnesses. Putin’s war of aggression is responsible for hundreds of thousands of deaths and casualties.
dkotok.substack.com/p/20-days-in...
dkotok.substack.com/p/20-days-in...
November 9, 2025 at 3:36 PM
Putin and his ilk manipulate media in the West while they are guilty of horrendous war crimes. I have heard of these crimes directly from Ukrainian eyewitnesses. Putin’s war of aggression is responsible for hundreds of thousands of deaths and casualties.
dkotok.substack.com/p/20-days-in...
dkotok.substack.com/p/20-days-in...
Meanwhile, the film affirms the value of courageous journalism. It demonstrates how essential it is to preserve factual memory in the face of orchestrated falsehoods. In the battle between truth and propaganda, 20 Days in Mariupol demolishes lies with evidence.
November 9, 2025 at 3:00 PM
Meanwhile, the film affirms the value of courageous journalism. It demonstrates how essential it is to preserve factual memory in the face of orchestrated falsehoods. In the battle between truth and propaganda, 20 Days in Mariupol demolishes lies with evidence.
In one chart you can see the places where the most damage from ICE is done to building and construction of all types.
I’m in Florida, and now see optimism about FL waning. This is one of the reasons why.
I’m in Florida, and now see optimism about FL waning. This is one of the reasons why.
November 8, 2025 at 9:02 PM
In one chart you can see the places where the most damage from ICE is done to building and construction of all types.
I’m in Florida, and now see optimism about FL waning. This is one of the reasons why.
I’m in Florida, and now see optimism about FL waning. This is one of the reasons why.
Nvidia Becomes First $5 Trillion Company
The “remarkable valuation” sets high expectations for the company, said David Kotok, co-founder of Cumberland Advisors. “It is justified only if margins and profits continue on the current trajectory or even get better.”
www.wsj.com/tech/ai/nvid...
The “remarkable valuation” sets high expectations for the company, said David Kotok, co-founder of Cumberland Advisors. “It is justified only if margins and profits continue on the current trajectory or even get better.”
www.wsj.com/tech/ai/nvid...
October 31, 2025 at 3:08 PM
Nvidia Becomes First $5 Trillion Company
The “remarkable valuation” sets high expectations for the company, said David Kotok, co-founder of Cumberland Advisors. “It is justified only if margins and profits continue on the current trajectory or even get better.”
www.wsj.com/tech/ai/nvid...
The “remarkable valuation” sets high expectations for the company, said David Kotok, co-founder of Cumberland Advisors. “It is justified only if margins and profits continue on the current trajectory or even get better.”
www.wsj.com/tech/ai/nvid...
Discussing "The Fed and the Flu: Parsing Pandemic Economic Shocks", right now on radio. Join us here: wslr.org/how-to-liste...
October 29, 2025 at 1:32 PM
Discussing "The Fed and the Flu: Parsing Pandemic Economic Shocks", right now on radio. Join us here: wslr.org/how-to-liste...
President Donald Trump has sought to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, citing claims that she committed mortgage fraud. On October 1, we learned that Lisa Cook will keep her job for the time being, at least until the Supreme Court hears arguments in January.
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October 5, 2025 at 4:08 PM
President Donald Trump has sought to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, citing claims that she committed mortgage fraud. On October 1, we learned that Lisa Cook will keep her job for the time being, at least until the Supreme Court hears arguments in January.
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My speculation is that Bill Pulte, director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, is going to be a political casualty because of the embarrassing way he launched the Lisa Cook Affair. dkotok.substack.com/p/the-fed-an...
September 18, 2025 at 4:51 PM
My speculation is that Bill Pulte, director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, is going to be a political casualty because of the embarrassing way he launched the Lisa Cook Affair. dkotok.substack.com/p/the-fed-an...
Quick thoughts about the extraordinary week of news we've had that includes China's Xi, Putin, & Kim attending Beijing's massive Military Parade, Federal Reserve Bank Independence under attack, and what's news with employment.
September 4, 2025 at 5:59 PM
Quick thoughts about the extraordinary week of news we've had that includes China's Xi, Putin, & Kim attending Beijing's massive Military Parade, Federal Reserve Bank Independence under attack, and what's news with employment.
It turns out this isn’t the first time an unhappy president has meddled with the BLS, but Trump’s firing of a commissioner over an unwelcome jobs report is unprecedented.
We thank Philippa and Doug for their permission to share this with you. Happy Labor Day Weekend. Maybe go fishing :)
We thank Philippa and Doug for their permission to share this with you. Happy Labor Day Weekend. Maybe go fishing :)
August 31, 2025 at 3:48 PM
It turns out this isn’t the first time an unhappy president has meddled with the BLS, but Trump’s firing of a commissioner over an unwelcome jobs report is unprecedented.
We thank Philippa and Doug for their permission to share this with you. Happy Labor Day Weekend. Maybe go fishing :)
We thank Philippa and Doug for their permission to share this with you. Happy Labor Day Weekend. Maybe go fishing :)
A Summer Reading List for Business Leaders is incomplete without a copy of "The Fed and the Flu: Parsing Pandemic Economic Shocks." Get your copy at www.thefedandtheflu.com/order
August 30, 2025 at 9:42 PM
A Summer Reading List for Business Leaders is incomplete without a copy of "The Fed and the Flu: Parsing Pandemic Economic Shocks." Get your copy at www.thefedandtheflu.com/order
This chart from the August 13, 2025, edition of the Sevens Report offers a depiction worth at least a thousand words. We thank Tom Essaye for permission to share the chart with our readers. For details about Tom’s valuable and substantive newsletter, see sevensreport.com.
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August 26, 2025 at 6:55 PM
This chart from the August 13, 2025, edition of the Sevens Report offers a depiction worth at least a thousand words. We thank Tom Essaye for permission to share the chart with our readers. For details about Tom’s valuable and substantive newsletter, see sevensreport.com.
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Fed Governor Cook Says Trump Has No Authority To Fire Her www.barrons.com/news/fed-gov...
"The Supreme Court's conservative majority recently allowed Trump to fire members of other independent government boards, but notably created a carveout for the Federal Reserve in its ruling." (1/2)
"The Supreme Court's conservative majority recently allowed Trump to fire members of other independent government boards, but notably created a carveout for the Federal Reserve in its ruling." (1/2)
August 26, 2025 at 2:53 PM
Fed Governor Cook Says Trump Has No Authority To Fire Her www.barrons.com/news/fed-gov...
"The Supreme Court's conservative majority recently allowed Trump to fire members of other independent government boards, but notably created a carveout for the Federal Reserve in its ruling." (1/2)
"The Supreme Court's conservative majority recently allowed Trump to fire members of other independent government boards, but notably created a carveout for the Federal Reserve in its ruling." (1/2)
"What Should the Fed Do? I asked a number of my friends who think and care deeply about Fed policy about what they think the Fed should do at the September meeting. Normally, there is some sort of consensus in the perspectives. Not this time." -John Mauldin
talkmarkets.com/content/us-m...
talkmarkets.com/content/us-m...
August 25, 2025 at 6:55 PM
"What Should the Fed Do? I asked a number of my friends who think and care deeply about Fed policy about what they think the Fed should do at the September meeting. Normally, there is some sort of consensus in the perspectives. Not this time." -John Mauldin
talkmarkets.com/content/us-m...
talkmarkets.com/content/us-m...
In Memoriam: Pres. Charles Plosser
"Charles will be remembered for his dedication to public service & stewardship of the nation’s economy. His leadership & contributions have made a lasting impact on the work of the Philadelphia Fed & Federal Reserve System. www.philadelphiafed.org/about-us/in-...
"Charles will be remembered for his dedication to public service & stewardship of the nation’s economy. His leadership & contributions have made a lasting impact on the work of the Philadelphia Fed & Federal Reserve System. www.philadelphiafed.org/about-us/in-...
August 25, 2025 at 12:45 PM
In Memoriam: Pres. Charles Plosser
"Charles will be remembered for his dedication to public service & stewardship of the nation’s economy. His leadership & contributions have made a lasting impact on the work of the Philadelphia Fed & Federal Reserve System. www.philadelphiafed.org/about-us/in-...
"Charles will be remembered for his dedication to public service & stewardship of the nation’s economy. His leadership & contributions have made a lasting impact on the work of the Philadelphia Fed & Federal Reserve System. www.philadelphiafed.org/about-us/in-...
So why do we expect the US economy to trend down to lower growth? Why do we expect it to produce a stagflationary result?
Markets Discussion Series Part 8: Labor Markets — Slowdown or Recession? dkotok.substack.com/p/markets-di...
Markets Discussion Series Part 8: Labor Markets — Slowdown or Recession? dkotok.substack.com/p/markets-di...
August 24, 2025 at 6:55 PM
So why do we expect the US economy to trend down to lower growth? Why do we expect it to produce a stagflationary result?
Markets Discussion Series Part 8: Labor Markets — Slowdown or Recession? dkotok.substack.com/p/markets-di...
Markets Discussion Series Part 8: Labor Markets — Slowdown or Recession? dkotok.substack.com/p/markets-di...
Markets Discussion Series Part 8: Labor Markets — Slowdown or Recession?
Deportations and restrictive immigration policy portend economic growth rate declines and maybe a full recession. dkotok.substack.com/p/markets-di...
#Markets #Recession #Deportations #Immigration #Economy
Deportations and restrictive immigration policy portend economic growth rate declines and maybe a full recession. dkotok.substack.com/p/markets-di...
#Markets #Recession #Deportations #Immigration #Economy
August 24, 2025 at 3:06 PM
Markets Discussion Series Part 8: Labor Markets — Slowdown or Recession?
Deportations and restrictive immigration policy portend economic growth rate declines and maybe a full recession. dkotok.substack.com/p/markets-di...
#Markets #Recession #Deportations #Immigration #Economy
Deportations and restrictive immigration policy portend economic growth rate declines and maybe a full recession. dkotok.substack.com/p/markets-di...
#Markets #Recession #Deportations #Immigration #Economy
Join me in Maine at #CampKotok youtu.be/rFfDRWJhx9I?...
We talk about how how Camp Kotok grew after 9/11, the themes shaping this year’s discussions, and the powerful firsthand accounts from Ukrainian combat veterans who brought the realities of Russia's war into sharp focus.
We talk about how how Camp Kotok grew after 9/11, the themes shaping this year’s discussions, and the powerful firsthand accounts from Ukrainian combat veterans who brought the realities of Russia's war into sharp focus.
August 24, 2025 at 2:19 AM
Join me in Maine at #CampKotok youtu.be/rFfDRWJhx9I?...
We talk about how how Camp Kotok grew after 9/11, the themes shaping this year’s discussions, and the powerful firsthand accounts from Ukrainian combat veterans who brought the realities of Russia's war into sharp focus.
We talk about how how Camp Kotok grew after 9/11, the themes shaping this year’s discussions, and the powerful firsthand accounts from Ukrainian combat veterans who brought the realities of Russia's war into sharp focus.
General Walsh has offered a prescription for change if Putin is sufficiently punished so that he comes to the table. A coalition is forming to bring that about, we hope.
We know Ukraine has suffered the harshest of punishment from Putin, and we know that Ukraine exhibits the fiercest of...
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We know Ukraine has suffered the harshest of punishment from Putin, and we know that Ukraine exhibits the fiercest of...
(1/2)
August 21, 2025 at 12:45 PM
General Walsh has offered a prescription for change if Putin is sufficiently punished so that he comes to the table. A coalition is forming to bring that about, we hope.
We know Ukraine has suffered the harshest of punishment from Putin, and we know that Ukraine exhibits the fiercest of...
(1/2)
We know Ukraine has suffered the harshest of punishment from Putin, and we know that Ukraine exhibits the fiercest of...
(1/2)