David Sher
@david-sher.bsky.social
Math prof, amateur musician. Chicagoland by way of VA, MD, CA, MI.
I actually suspect they'll find that hard, given that Alito specifically said that CA's justification, like TX's, was political rather than racial.
December 5, 2025 at 12:34 AM
I actually suspect they'll find that hard, given that Alito specifically said that CA's justification, like TX's, was political rather than racial.
Yeah, that line is really interesting. They didn't have to write that. And Kagan didn't have to dissent "respectfully" either. But they did, and she did. I wonder if the deal was to allow the gerrymandering in both TX and CA. Regardless, the practical effect is to lock in both the TX and CA maps.
December 4, 2025 at 11:15 PM
Yeah, that line is really interesting. They didn't have to write that. And Kagan didn't have to dissent "respectfully" either. But they did, and she did. I wonder if the deal was to allow the gerrymandering in both TX and CA. Regardless, the practical effect is to lock in both the TX and CA maps.
Can we arrange for him to take over FIFA and leave the presidency? His talents (getting attention, stupendous corruption) make him an exceptional match for that role.
November 6, 2025 at 12:35 AM
Can we arrange for him to take over FIFA and leave the presidency? His talents (getting attention, stupendous corruption) make him an exceptional match for that role.
I remember VA-Gov 2017, where the polls had Northam generally leading but mostly by 1-5 points. Quinnipiac came in with Northam +9. Northam... won by 9. I doubt Spanberger's margin is 15, but it would not surprise me at all if it were comfortably in double digits.
October 30, 2025 at 10:43 PM
I remember VA-Gov 2017, where the polls had Northam generally leading but mostly by 1-5 points. Quinnipiac came in with Northam +9. Northam... won by 9. I doubt Spanberger's margin is 15, but it would not surprise me at all if it were comfortably in double digits.
Seems unequivocally good, no? If they buy Lederman's argument - and it's compelling - then the Guard just cannot be deployed under 12406(3) in the way they've been doing it. The military would have to be there (under a separate authority) and unable to handle things, which is very unlikely.
October 29, 2025 at 7:54 PM
Seems unequivocally good, no? If they buy Lederman's argument - and it's compelling - then the Guard just cannot be deployed under 12406(3) in the way they've been doing it. The military would have to be there (under a separate authority) and unable to handle things, which is very unlikely.
There is no causative association. There is a weak correlation, which people studied to see if it was causative, and proved conclusively that it isn't.
October 29, 2025 at 5:52 PM
There is no causative association. There is a weak correlation, which people studied to see if it was causative, and proved conclusively that it isn't.
She. But... yeah, more or less.
October 20, 2025 at 9:52 PM
She. But... yeah, more or less.
No. That only got one vote. There was one vote for that position (Nelson, a Trump appointee). There was one vote for "the district judge got the facts wrong so he can do this" (Bade, Trump appointee). There was one vote for "this is bonkers of course he can't do this" (Gruber).
October 20, 2025 at 9:33 PM
No. That only got one vote. There was one vote for that position (Nelson, a Trump appointee). There was one vote for "the district judge got the facts wrong so he can do this" (Bade, Trump appointee). There was one vote for "this is bonkers of course he can't do this" (Gruber).
I was more encouraged after the argument than I expected to be. Perhaps I'm off base, but it seems to me like it will still be hard for Republicans to dismantle currently extant VRA districts (because the obvious remedy - returning to the old map - is not race-based).
October 15, 2025 at 6:14 PM
I was more encouraged after the argument than I expected to be. Perhaps I'm off base, but it seems to me like it will still be hard for Republicans to dismantle currently extant VRA districts (because the obvious remedy - returning to the old map - is not race-based).
No. This is one of those things that looks suspicious enough to indict on first glance but falls apart the minute you look at the defense evidence. Grand juries don't see the defense evidence. I doubt this makes it to trial.
October 9, 2025 at 9:28 PM
No. This is one of those things that looks suspicious enough to indict on first glance but falls apart the minute you look at the defense evidence. Grand juries don't see the defense evidence. I doubt this makes it to trial.
This conduct is Norfolk-based, so Norfolk makes sense. It's a pretty diverse city - jury should be fair. And DOJ is probably furious about the judge assignment here (Biden appointee, Black, and openly LGBTQ).
October 9, 2025 at 9:27 PM
This conduct is Norfolk-based, so Norfolk makes sense. It's a pretty diverse city - jury should be fair. And DOJ is probably furious about the judge assignment here (Biden appointee, Black, and openly LGBTQ).
What's with Kagan's surprisingly diplomatic dissent? Feels like this is a big separation-of-powers issue; unless I'm missing something, the majority is saying the ICA cannot be enforced by anyone except Congress. That's essentially granting the president a line-item veto. Why the pulled punches?
September 26, 2025 at 8:53 PM
What's with Kagan's surprisingly diplomatic dissent? Feels like this is a big separation-of-powers issue; unless I'm missing something, the majority is saying the ICA cannot be enforced by anyone except Congress. That's essentially granting the president a line-item veto. Why the pulled punches?
This is some serious Captain Queeg level nuttery.
September 24, 2025 at 11:52 PM
This is some serious Captain Queeg level nuttery.
How insane does your use of military power have to be in order for *John Yoo* of all people to question it? Seriously, this is bananas.
September 17, 2025 at 3:08 AM
How insane does your use of military power have to be in order for *John Yoo* of all people to question it? Seriously, this is bananas.
Donald Trump calls his political opponents enemies of the state *all the time*.
September 14, 2025 at 1:35 PM
Donald Trump calls his political opponents enemies of the state *all the time*.
Sotomayor's dissent notes the praying-coach case and says that should settle it. This Court views coercion differently depending on the particular religion of those coercing/being coerced.
June 27, 2025 at 3:23 PM
Sotomayor's dissent notes the praying-coach case and says that should settle it. This Court views coercion differently depending on the particular religion of those coercing/being coerced.
On a first reading of the opinion, it's not nuts at all. Wouldn't have been 3-0 otherwise. It makes clear that the president's power to federalize the Guard *is* reviewable and *is* limited - cannot do this in bad faith. It also respects the Posse Comitatus Act, which was not at issue here.
June 20, 2025 at 2:38 AM
On a first reading of the opinion, it's not nuts at all. Wouldn't have been 3-0 otherwise. It makes clear that the president's power to federalize the Guard *is* reviewable and *is* limited - cannot do this in bad faith. It also respects the Posse Comitatus Act, which was not at issue here.
City of Richmond, early and absentee.
June 18, 2025 at 1:45 AM
City of Richmond, early and absentee.
I'm very curious - why didn't the liberal justices write a dissent? Any insight?
May 7, 2025 at 2:05 AM
I'm very curious - why didn't the liberal justices write a dissent? Any insight?
Also, that tone, basically bragging about forcing Schakowsky out, is a mistake. Schakowsky is really well-respected in IL-9. Yes, it's time for her to retire, but dancing on her political grave is gross.
April 23, 2025 at 8:36 PM
Also, that tone, basically bragging about forcing Schakowsky out, is a mistake. Schakowsky is really well-respected in IL-9. Yes, it's time for her to retire, but dancing on her political grave is gross.
It'll be big money, yes, but Abughazaleh doesn't have much of a chance no matter how much she's raised. Too many good candidates on the bench here (Fine, Biss, etc.).
April 23, 2025 at 8:34 PM
It'll be big money, yes, but Abughazaleh doesn't have much of a chance no matter how much she's raised. Too many good candidates on the bench here (Fine, Biss, etc.).
Yes. This is gross fascist propaganda. But it is not a real video from today.
April 18, 2025 at 11:16 PM
Yes. This is gross fascist propaganda. But it is not a real video from today.
This is Lancaster County. Not just a Trump +15 seat, a Trump +15 seat with basically no history of voting for Democrats at any level. That's solid Republican territory. This is a big deal.
March 26, 2025 at 2:08 AM
This is Lancaster County. Not just a Trump +15 seat, a Trump +15 seat with basically no history of voting for Democrats at any level. That's solid Republican territory. This is a big deal.
Pritzker has been legitimately impressive, and he might be able to appeal to both moderates and progressives.
March 24, 2025 at 9:17 PM
Pritzker has been legitimately impressive, and he might be able to appeal to both moderates and progressives.
It always is. They led the state in early voting turnout in November.
March 20, 2025 at 3:04 PM
It always is. They led the state in early voting turnout in November.