David P Miller
@davepmiller.bsky.social
Biostatistician
Long ago college DJ
Consumer and maker of music lists
Worried watcher of survey research and political polls
Long ago college DJ
Consumer and maker of music lists
Worried watcher of survey research and political polls
According to FoxNews:
Independent journalist Christopher Rufo reported on Monday that, according to Mamdani’s full Columbia application, he scored 2140 out of 2400 on the SAT, which is below the median score of students admitted to the university in 2009.
There is literally a 50/50 chance of that.
Independent journalist Christopher Rufo reported on Monday that, according to Mamdani’s full Columbia application, he scored 2140 out of 2400 on the SAT, which is below the median score of students admitted to the university in 2009.
There is literally a 50/50 chance of that.
July 8, 2025 at 2:30 AM
According to FoxNews:
Independent journalist Christopher Rufo reported on Monday that, according to Mamdani’s full Columbia application, he scored 2140 out of 2400 on the SAT, which is below the median score of students admitted to the university in 2009.
There is literally a 50/50 chance of that.
Independent journalist Christopher Rufo reported on Monday that, according to Mamdani’s full Columbia application, he scored 2140 out of 2400 on the SAT, which is below the median score of students admitted to the university in 2009.
There is literally a 50/50 chance of that.
Reposted by David P Miller
I am grieving for the many talented & dedicated FDA employees who have been mistreated & those left to do the work of protecting public health. Also for those who will be harmed by this among patients and the public. Those who are complicit in their silence will be judged harshly by history.
February 17, 2025 at 3:34 AM
I am grieving for the many talented & dedicated FDA employees who have been mistreated & those left to do the work of protecting public health. Also for those who will be harmed by this among patients and the public. Those who are complicit in their silence will be judged harshly by history.
Why does the news always report fire burn areas in acres? Is that meaningful to anyone? NYT reported that the 27K acres burned so far is roughly equivalent to 20K football fields. That’s helpful, but why not say equivalent to approximately 2 Manhattan islands, or note that SF is 30K acres?
January 9, 2025 at 4:27 PM
Why does the news always report fire burn areas in acres? Is that meaningful to anyone? NYT reported that the 27K acres burned so far is roughly equivalent to 20K football fields. That’s helpful, but why not say equivalent to approximately 2 Manhattan islands, or note that SF is 30K acres?
Waking up to get the paper from the driveway on the first Sunday in January is the right way to get a year-end list.
I’m going to read all these faker lists that are dropping now, but I hope they all missed something great that’s going to happen in December.
I’m going to read all these faker lists that are dropping now, but I hope they all missed something great that’s going to happen in December.
December 2, 2024 at 3:32 PM
Waking up to get the paper from the driveway on the first Sunday in January is the right way to get a year-end list.
I’m going to read all these faker lists that are dropping now, but I hope they all missed something great that’s going to happen in December.
I’m going to read all these faker lists that are dropping now, but I hope they all missed something great that’s going to happen in December.
Final thoughts. Listen and build trust first. Don’t provide any data at all until you have trust. The real world is a little bit more complicated than Bayes Theorem (10/10)
November 25, 2024 at 7:05 PM
Final thoughts. Listen and build trust first. Don’t provide any data at all until you have trust. The real world is a little bit more complicated than Bayes Theorem (10/10)
In the end, you have a group of overly certain educated voters who don’t understand why their data and their candidates are being rejected by the less educated voters who don’t trust them (9/10)
November 25, 2024 at 7:04 PM
In the end, you have a group of overly certain educated voters who don’t understand why their data and their candidates are being rejected by the less educated voters who don’t trust them (9/10)
Scientists do collect more and more data (e.g., more research is needed), but that data just causes them to have greater and greater confidence since they selectively publish data with which they agree (8/10)
November 25, 2024 at 7:03 PM
Scientists do collect more and more data (e.g., more research is needed), but that data just causes them to have greater and greater confidence since they selectively publish data with which they agree (8/10)
Scientific peer review relies on reviewers who also hold subjective beliefs. They routinely reject papers that contradict their beliefs or the commonly accepted beliefs of their field. They readily accept papers that align with their beliefs (7/10)
November 25, 2024 at 7:03 PM
Scientific peer review relies on reviewers who also hold subjective beliefs. They routinely reject papers that contradict their beliefs or the commonly accepted beliefs of their field. They readily accept papers that align with their beliefs (7/10)
What about educated voters? Are they objective and logical? I don’t think they are. What do those signs really mean that say this household believes in science? Nobody understands all the science. They mean they trust scientific peer review. (6/10)
November 25, 2024 at 7:02 PM
What about educated voters? Are they objective and logical? I don’t think they are. What do those signs really mean that say this household believes in science? Nobody understands all the science. They mean they trust scientific peer review. (6/10)
In today’s world, where social media algorithms can be constructed to feed us information that aligns with our subjective beliefs, it is frighteningly easy for the subjective beliefs to win out over objective data (5/10)
November 25, 2024 at 7:02 PM
In today’s world, where social media algorithms can be constructed to feed us information that aligns with our subjective beliefs, it is frighteningly easy for the subjective beliefs to win out over objective data (5/10)
In reality, especially for low-information voters, if subjective beliefs conflict with “the data”, one tends to distrust the data source and quits gathering additional data from that data source. The data can’t win if you don’t trust it (4/10)
November 25, 2024 at 7:02 PM
In reality, especially for low-information voters, if subjective beliefs conflict with “the data”, one tends to distrust the data source and quits gathering additional data from that data source. The data can’t win if you don’t trust it (4/10)
The theory is that the subjective beliefs are supplanted by the data because, where disagreement exists, the data can always be increased such that the data in aggregate eventually wins out (3/10)
November 25, 2024 at 7:01 PM
The theory is that the subjective beliefs are supplanted by the data because, where disagreement exists, the data can always be increased such that the data in aggregate eventually wins out (3/10)
In Bayesian theory, one has some totally subjective beliefs, which can be represented as a “prior”. One gets in new data and updates their beliefs as a mix of the “prior” and the “data”. As one adds more and more data, the subjective prior beliefs become irrelevant (2/10)
November 25, 2024 at 7:01 PM
In Bayesian theory, one has some totally subjective beliefs, which can be represented as a “prior”. One gets in new data and updates their beliefs as a mix of the “prior” and the “data”. As one adds more and more data, the subjective prior beliefs become irrelevant (2/10)
In the context of Trump’s victory, I’ve been thinking a lot about Bayesian theory vs Bayesian practice. How does data actually change our beliefs, and how does that differ for so-called educated voters and low-information voters (1/10)
November 25, 2024 at 7:00 PM
In the context of Trump’s victory, I’ve been thinking a lot about Bayesian theory vs Bayesian practice. How does data actually change our beliefs, and how does that differ for so-called educated voters and low-information voters (1/10)
I’m tired of seeing posts about Trump’s cabinet picks being unqualified. They’re highly qualified for being the wrecking balls Trump wants them to be.
Focusing on qualifications reeks of coastal elitism. We should be talking instead about the value to regular people that will be lost.
Focusing on qualifications reeks of coastal elitism. We should be talking instead about the value to regular people that will be lost.
November 20, 2024 at 7:06 PM
I’m tired of seeing posts about Trump’s cabinet picks being unqualified. They’re highly qualified for being the wrecking balls Trump wants them to be.
Focusing on qualifications reeks of coastal elitism. We should be talking instead about the value to regular people that will be lost.
Focusing on qualifications reeks of coastal elitism. We should be talking instead about the value to regular people that will be lost.
Hall & Oates “I Can’t Go For That (No Can Do)” has been on heavy rotation at the grocery store.
I’ve only just realized that “No Can Do” is doubling down on “I can’t go for that”.
I always thought they couldn’t go for that “No Can Do” attitude.
Still learning. Never stop never stopping.
I’ve only just realized that “No Can Do” is doubling down on “I can’t go for that”.
I always thought they couldn’t go for that “No Can Do” attitude.
Still learning. Never stop never stopping.
November 19, 2024 at 5:51 PM
Hall & Oates “I Can’t Go For That (No Can Do)” has been on heavy rotation at the grocery store.
I’ve only just realized that “No Can Do” is doubling down on “I can’t go for that”.
I always thought they couldn’t go for that “No Can Do” attitude.
Still learning. Never stop never stopping.
I’ve only just realized that “No Can Do” is doubling down on “I can’t go for that”.
I always thought they couldn’t go for that “No Can Do” attitude.
Still learning. Never stop never stopping.
I love voting by mail in California and I completely trust the process. That said, there has to be something we can do about the pace of counting. All ballots had to be received 3 days ago. How can we still have 3 competitive congressional races with less than 90% of the vote counted? Fix this CA.
November 19, 2024 at 5:51 PM
I love voting by mail in California and I completely trust the process. That said, there has to be something we can do about the pace of counting. All ballots had to be received 3 days ago. How can we still have 3 competitive congressional races with less than 90% of the vote counted? Fix this CA.
Good advice on pushing back on p-value obsessed journal reviewers, but how many times does this same piece have to be written before we recognize that peer review needs to be re-invented entirely. I don't believe it can be fixed. www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/...
November 19, 2024 at 5:51 PM
Good advice on pushing back on p-value obsessed journal reviewers, but how many times does this same piece have to be written before we recognize that peer review needs to be re-invented entirely. I don't believe it can be fixed. www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/...
The wordlebot is either bad at evaluating skill or bad at evaluating luck. I suspect it's both.
November 19, 2024 at 5:51 PM
The wordlebot is either bad at evaluating skill or bad at evaluating luck. I suspect it's both.
Among 6 re-elected incumbents since 1960, the average share of their party's NH primary vote was 82.5%.
Among 5 non-re-elected incumbents since 1960, the average share of their party's NH primary vote was 57.4%.
Biden will probably land around 65% once all the write-ins are tallied.
Among 5 non-re-elected incumbents since 1960, the average share of their party's NH primary vote was 57.4%.
Biden will probably land around 65% once all the write-ins are tallied.
November 19, 2024 at 5:51 PM
Among 6 re-elected incumbents since 1960, the average share of their party's NH primary vote was 82.5%.
Among 5 non-re-elected incumbents since 1960, the average share of their party's NH primary vote was 57.4%.
Biden will probably land around 65% once all the write-ins are tallied.
Among 5 non-re-elected incumbents since 1960, the average share of their party's NH primary vote was 57.4%.
Biden will probably land around 65% once all the write-ins are tallied.
I love lists, but I hate the trend of end-of-year lists showing up earlier and earlier. I'm going to make a list of 15 records from 2023 that might end up being some of my favorites, but it's way too soon to tell. I don't know if they'll hold up to repeat listening and I don't know what I missed.
November 19, 2024 at 5:51 PM
I love lists, but I hate the trend of end-of-year lists showing up earlier and earlier. I'm going to make a list of 15 records from 2023 that might end up being some of my favorites, but it's way too soon to tell. I don't know if they'll hold up to repeat listening and I don't know what I missed.
This is one of the best papers I ever co-authored, and sadly one that never made it through peer review (long story for another day). Given all the challenges with differential diagnosis, I'd love to see something like Figure 3 from this paper with the current variants. #covid #biostatistics
COVID-19 test positivity: predictive value of various symptoms in a large community-based testing pr...
medRxiv - The Preprint Server for Health Sciences
www.medrxiv.org
November 19, 2024 at 5:51 PM
This is one of the best papers I ever co-authored, and sadly one that never made it through peer review (long story for another day). Given all the challenges with differential diagnosis, I'd love to see something like Figure 3 from this paper with the current variants. #covid #biostatistics
Reposted by David P Miller
NEW COVID wastewater update from Biobot: Looks like we are near the peak.
The historical data shows we are in the second-largest wave since the start of the pandemic.
Currently in the US, ~1 in 23 are infectious with COVID, and there are ~2 million new infections a day.
The historical data shows we are in the second-largest wave since the start of the pandemic.
Currently in the US, ~1 in 23 are infectious with COVID, and there are ~2 million new infections a day.
January 9, 2024 at 5:42 PM
NEW COVID wastewater update from Biobot: Looks like we are near the peak.
The historical data shows we are in the second-largest wave since the start of the pandemic.
Currently in the US, ~1 in 23 are infectious with COVID, and there are ~2 million new infections a day.
The historical data shows we are in the second-largest wave since the start of the pandemic.
Currently in the US, ~1 in 23 are infectious with COVID, and there are ~2 million new infections a day.