Does bsky do DMs? If not, email me at david.anthony.byler at gmail and I can explain! Thanks!

Would love to hear recommendations!

"Increase risk of loss, but increase the value of the outcome you're hoping for" can be a reasonable strategy

But often times they get the first part without the second

This also goes for primaries

At this point, the "RINO" in most primaries would do virtually the same stuff as the MAGA candidate, but just not lose

Yet MAGA is often nominated

Fair! At the same time, MAGA primary voters have not always been, well, strategic. TBD!

and people that is *Utah*

looking forward to reading!

This really matters, I think

I went back re-weighted some of our non-recall-weighted polls by recalled vote. On average it helped -- but sometimes it did nothing or hurt a little bit!

100% same page

We used recall in some polls and not in others. Using it more generally would have helped, but wouldn't have solved everything. I definitely feel like the engagement piece is core and unsolved

Not every new variable people try will work!

Someone will find some novel way to measure political engagement, quota or weight on it or something and the results will be bad

But that's science, people! And I think getting okay with that is crucial

If they're temporary issues, it's NBD. But, at least in the last term, you could see these episodes kind of chain together to create a low average baseline approval heading into the midterms

And, although the magnitude of shift was small, a number of the unpopular policy or competency crisis moments came with a downward tick in approval

you're the best -- thank you!

hi!