#zepp #grmn

If Zepp reaches its Q3 midpoint sales guidance, grows 40% y/y in Q4, that would imply 256musd for full year 2025E, a sales growth of 50% y/y in 2026 puts Zepp's 2026E sales at 384musd and EV/S at ca 1.0x, compared to Garmin's Q2 LTM EV/S at 6x. Still massive upside from here imo.

I peer $ZEPP against $GRMN. It's easy to argue for a higher growth rate for Zepp than Garmin's fitness segment over time, given strong positioning and smaller base (LTM Q2 Garmin's fitness revenue was 10x of Zepp). Garmin's +41% y/y Q2 growth supports a high 50-60% growth in Zepp

My analysis of outlook: The +70% ish growth in Q3 is due to easy comps, which should come down some in Q4, but then up significantly in Q1 (potentially >100%).

Also with liquidity situation stabilizing ahead (maybe), pace of share buybacks or marketing efforts could rise further

A lot of my cases started to play out in July. Now +67% YTD