I found that!! Thanks!

I think I’ve found it!

@racesimcentral.net I’d also appreciate any pointers on IMS conversion. I still have my floppy. And I’m pretty sure the files and converter are on one of old IDE hard drives. I just fear those drives are probably cold-welded like my oldest SATA that I just tried.

The difference is that we don’t have two not-cars. We have two different things. If the host shows you the ordinary goat, you stay per the probabilities Mauve outlined. If the host shows you the special goat, you revert to the game they think you’re playing, switch, and have 2/3 chance of the car

Jumping to the 50-50 conclusion doesn’t correctly lay out the probabilities of all the things that could be prior to the door opening, but prematurely jumps to assumptions from what we learned later

And switched again—Mauve’s argument is convincing. We should stay.

I think I had previously fallen into the trap that many did in responding to Marilyn vos Savant’s analysis of the original problem. She correctly calculated the a priori probabilities, then updated based on the new information

Well put. And in this case, when the ordinary goat is shown, the probabilities are updated to 2/3 chance we won with original and 1/3 we’d win if we switch

I agree—I reversed my opinion

I’m actually reconsidering and coming around to it being 50-50. Looking at it as 2/3 chance of being wrong only works if all goats are indistinguishable. Here, there’s a 1/3 chance you were right initially, and showing the worthless goat rules out one of the possibilities.

I agree. No matter whether you and the host share an opinion about which door is the prize, there’s a 2/3 chance the door you picked isn’t the prize you want. After showing the regular goat, that’s still true.

If he had become Yokozuna, is that a permanent honor or can it be lost?

For me it’s being behind early in a co-op then pulling it out. Thunderbirds and Pandemic Legacy spring to mind as enabling those moments for me.

Apparently it was also updated in the ANSI days www.docdroid.net/p2oN41n/k100...

Shhhhh…..