Danny Shaw
dannyshaw.bsky.social
Danny Shaw
@dannyshaw.bsky.social
Journalist, specialising in policing, crime, justice, prisons, security & immigration. Ex-BBC home affairs correspondent & former adviser to Yvette Cooper MP. These are all my views!
Rate of homicide - ie taking account of the population - is now at its lowest (8.4) since 1973, when it was 8 per million people.

This ONS graph shows the homicide rate to March 2024. It has fallen further since then. The spikes are due to specific fatal incidents:
October 23, 2025 at 11:39 AM
Going back further, murder/manslaughter cases are the lowest since 1977, when 484 deaths were initially classed as 'homicide'.

Homicide rate 8.4 per 1 million people, down from 9.2 last year.

38% of victims fatally stabbed, down from 43%

ONS graph of recent homicide trends:
October 23, 2025 at 11:39 AM
Police-recorded religious hate crime figures show that Jews are more likely to be victims than any other religious group: 106 crimes per 10,000 Jews. Muslims next: 12 per 10,000 Muslims.

Source: Home Office
October 9, 2025 at 10:16 AM
Here's a chart from Minstry of Justice showing that victims are waiting almost 2 years for justice, on average (using the mean).

Some cases take 3 or 4 years, with trials not listed until 2028 and 2029.
September 25, 2025 at 8:54 AM
NEW. Home Office confirms the first asylum seeker has been flown back to France from UK under one-in, one-out returns deal.

He's an Indian man who arrived in Britain by small boat last month.

Statement:
September 18, 2025 at 11:38 AM
August 5, 2025 at 2:19 PM
Here is the CCRC's statement. It says a failure to hold an ID parade is why the case is heading back to Court of Appeal. Identification was central to this case.
The appeal court may also hear other issues, too. This is a case to watch very closely.
July 10, 2025 at 9:43 AM
On ethnicity, Casey is absolutely right. Her comments here, below, really should signal the end of the debate as to why we need such data - in fact, I would argue, for victims, suspects and offenders of all crime types.
June 16, 2025 at 8:01 PM
Figures come amid heightened concern about management of terrorists in jail, with Jonathan Hall KC, independent terror laws inspector, conducting a review of separation centres.
June 12, 2025 at 9:14 AM
10/ As predicted... a row looming with the judiciary.

(Note that Baroness Carr - who's already publicly criticised the Government - is President of the Sentencing Council.)

So, has the Council over-reached?

Or is Shabana Mahmood playing politics to keep Robert Jenrick & Reform at bay?
March 6, 2025 at 3:33 PM
Of those who were stabbed, the most common weapon used was a kitchen knife - 109 out of 262 killings.
A machete was used to kill 18 people
A combat knife was used in 13 cases.

Details here from ONS:
February 6, 2025 at 10:34 AM
Homicide rate in England/Wales remains low compared with other crimes, and is now lower than it has been in most years since 1970s, 9.5 per million population.

73% of victims are male.

Most common age group is 16 - 24 year olds (105 victims).

Long term trends from ONS:
February 6, 2025 at 10:34 AM
NEW: Met Police is out of 'special measures' - officially known as the 'Engage' stage of monitoring.

Policing watchdog, HM Inpsectorate of Constabulary, says it has made "good progress" though there's still a "significant amount of work" to do.

Here are the full reasons:
January 23, 2025 at 10:24 AM
Yvette Cooper says Rudakabana was referred to 'Prevent' 3 times, aged 13 & 14 & had contact with police, courts, youth justice, social services, mental health services

"Yet between them, those agencies failed to identify the terrible risk & danger to others that he posed"

Full statement:
January 20, 2025 at 6:51 PM
This changes things. Looking very hard now for the Govt to resist calls for an Inquiry - at least in the way MP Sarah Champion suggests. Last week she was against the idea …
January 13, 2025 at 3:45 PM
Look at how long cases are taking. The dark blue line is the time from an offence being committed to the case being concluded at court. Measured on the median it's about one year; on the mean, it's nearly 2 years:
December 12, 2024 at 9:52 AM
This was the Law Commission's proposed sentencing structure for homicide cases in 2006.

It made sense, but was never implemented partly for political reasons: it would have meant some convicted murderers avoiding a 'life' sentence.

Will this govt have the appetite for change?
December 6, 2024 at 3:13 PM
In the past decade:

- immigration to the UK has doubled
- net migration has more than trebled

In that time, we have had mainly Conservative governments, Brexit and Covid.

This chart puts it into historical perspective:
November 28, 2024 at 12:00 PM