The Fuaf is obvious - far more exports directed toward sthe premium Italian market (outside the core region). The F0all however - I'm open to suggestions. The shape looks like solar, but the time stamp peaks early - feed-in from Eastern Europe perhaps? Where solar has really broken out this year

The 'Remaining available margin' (RAM) indicates what is left for core flows during constrained hours after accounting for things like non-commercial flows (F0all) and non-core flows (Fuaf). Notice the May share of thermal capability jumped y-o-y.

Much of central and western Europe ('Core') operates under the flowbased market coupling system. So its not as straightforward as A exports to B. It optimises scarce transmission resources, with active constraints limiting exports within the region. In France, Q2 constraints are frequent!

One of the notable events last year was the exposure of transmission constraints limiting eastward export capacity, particularly in southeast France. A year later, a number of those limitations are still there, but the implications have been more profound on exports to Germany, rather than Italy

Part of the story in divergence is obvious. Post crisis demand has never recovered, and unlike its neighbours, France is awash with excess supply, namely nuclear. Well over 100% of residual demand is covered by nuclear. Its neighbours need imports, gas and coal (outside of the massive solar peak)

Q2 typically provides for the greatest annual length in power markets (wind, sunshine, warm but not scorching). Like last year, France stands out as wholesale power plummets. But neighbours? Not so much. Once upon a time it used to be far more aligned with Belgium, the Netherlands, and Germany

And the winner is...5 way split! Diff in economic efficiency for 2 and 5-way split vs status quo ~264-339€mn. Visual clearing price upside is ~€2 across So. DE, CEE. Could the latter prove sticky? Operational ballpark of ~2030 with 4-9 yr breakeven point. Report: www.entsoe.eu/network_code...

Adding some flavour to the what's and why: one bidding zone assume power flows seamlessly internally. The reality? Last year TSOs turned down nearly 8TWh of wind that couldn't be transported, turning up gas or coal in lieu (redispatch). A major culprit: internal stress (Right graph: BNE)

Big week ahead. Bidding zone review finally due, and suspect its on a collision course with the incoming DE gov't which, pending SPD approval, should start appointing ministers which have already said no to a split. System perspective: good idea (congestion, overfit). Hard political reality though