danny
@danjacobson.net
I think closed models will continue to benefit from orgs purchasing very high quality data — so they’ll asymptote higher than open models (even if only 5-10% higher)
August 20, 2025 at 1:37 PM
I think closed models will continue to benefit from orgs purchasing very high quality data — so they’ll asymptote higher than open models (even if only 5-10% higher)
I think that leads to a situation where the hyperscalars are incentivized to pull-forward their investment, even when the unit economics are bad.
If you have the compute right now, you can train the best model and serve it cheaper.
Most importantly, there’s no *other* obvious 100 billion bet
If you have the compute right now, you can train the best model and serve it cheaper.
Most importantly, there’s no *other* obvious 100 billion bet
August 11, 2025 at 5:51 PM
I think that leads to a situation where the hyperscalars are incentivized to pull-forward their investment, even when the unit economics are bad.
If you have the compute right now, you can train the best model and serve it cheaper.
Most importantly, there’s no *other* obvious 100 billion bet
If you have the compute right now, you can train the best model and serve it cheaper.
Most importantly, there’s no *other* obvious 100 billion bet
My thoughts are:
- Execs think this is likely to be winner-take-all, like Search was. Basically, “best model wins”.
- Data center tco is still dominated by capex, not opex
- There’s a first-mover advantage, and you can potentially strand your competitions investments
- They don’t have better ideas
- Execs think this is likely to be winner-take-all, like Search was. Basically, “best model wins”.
- Data center tco is still dominated by capex, not opex
- There’s a first-mover advantage, and you can potentially strand your competitions investments
- They don’t have better ideas
August 11, 2025 at 5:51 PM
My thoughts are:
- Execs think this is likely to be winner-take-all, like Search was. Basically, “best model wins”.
- Data center tco is still dominated by capex, not opex
- There’s a first-mover advantage, and you can potentially strand your competitions investments
- They don’t have better ideas
- Execs think this is likely to be winner-take-all, like Search was. Basically, “best model wins”.
- Data center tco is still dominated by capex, not opex
- There’s a first-mover advantage, and you can potentially strand your competitions investments
- They don’t have better ideas
I think this Sequoia post echos a lot of your skepticism www.sequoiacap.com/article/ais-...
AI’s $600B Question
The AI bubble is reaching a tipping point. As we continue to follow the GPUs, navigating what comes next will be essential.
www.sequoiacap.com
August 11, 2025 at 5:51 PM
I think this Sequoia post echos a lot of your skepticism www.sequoiacap.com/article/ais-...
I think the majority of load growth over the past 5 years really has been heat pumps and EVs, etc. 4mm new EVs over that time! Actually, it’s probably convenient that the data center boom happens now, otherwise these same headlines would be like “EVs putting incredible cost strain on the grid”.
August 11, 2025 at 1:15 PM
I think the majority of load growth over the past 5 years really has been heat pumps and EVs, etc. 4mm new EVs over that time! Actually, it’s probably convenient that the data center boom happens now, otherwise these same headlines would be like “EVs putting incredible cost strain on the grid”.
Seems to me that data centers being the *cost* driver stems from the bit-watt spread, and these companies willingness to pay www.latitudemedia.com/news/catalys...
Explaining the ‘Watt-Bit Spread’
A data center developer on why power prices are too low — and the consequences for the data center boom.
www.latitudemedia.com
August 11, 2025 at 1:15 PM
Seems to me that data centers being the *cost* driver stems from the bit-watt spread, and these companies willingness to pay www.latitudemedia.com/news/catalys...
I don’t think that’s true — they think the true path to power for the Democratic Party is having more Joe Manchins
July 25, 2025 at 4:19 PM
I don’t think that’s true — they think the true path to power for the Democratic Party is having more Joe Manchins
which company is the good company
July 7, 2025 at 5:11 PM
which company is the good company
There used to be so many more :(
July 1, 2025 at 1:33 AM
There used to be so many more :(
I’ve really liked “context hydration” or “prompt hydration” and wish it had caught on more
June 29, 2025 at 2:55 AM
I’ve really liked “context hydration” or “prompt hydration” and wish it had caught on more
Hmm, but wouldn’t this map be basically the same if you did like:
- average rent,
- average building height,
- average age?
Actually, this might just be one of those “secretly population density” maps.
- average rent,
- average building height,
- average age?
Actually, this might just be one of those “secretly population density” maps.
June 27, 2025 at 2:15 PM
Hmm, but wouldn’t this map be basically the same if you did like:
- average rent,
- average building height,
- average age?
Actually, this might just be one of those “secretly population density” maps.
- average rent,
- average building height,
- average age?
Actually, this might just be one of those “secretly population density” maps.
my guess is the second? we see a lot of examples of aged baroque things and build an expection
June 27, 2025 at 1:34 PM
my guess is the second? we see a lot of examples of aged baroque things and build an expection
Yes, but also not everything translates to service provision is better than cash!
I think in a low-margin, high-competition business like grocery stores in NYC, cash makes more sense.
But I think public schools make a lot more sense than to voucher-based education
I think in a low-margin, high-competition business like grocery stores in NYC, cash makes more sense.
But I think public schools make a lot more sense than to voucher-based education
June 25, 2025 at 10:10 PM
Yes, but also not everything translates to service provision is better than cash!
I think in a low-margin, high-competition business like grocery stores in NYC, cash makes more sense.
But I think public schools make a lot more sense than to voucher-based education
I think in a low-margin, high-competition business like grocery stores in NYC, cash makes more sense.
But I think public schools make a lot more sense than to voucher-based education
Right, but once you’re willing to just subsidize and lose money, it’s a lot easier to just give people the cash! You get the same outcome without the headache of running a grocery store.
June 25, 2025 at 6:24 PM
Right, but once you’re willing to just subsidize and lose money, it’s a lot easier to just give people the cash! You get the same outcome without the headache of running a grocery store.
An order of magnitude more electricity than all data centers!
June 24, 2025 at 3:09 PM
An order of magnitude more electricity than all data centers!
Isn’t that better than another foggy day?
June 21, 2025 at 3:46 AM
Isn’t that better than another foggy day?
But skiing is the greatest sport yet invented
June 21, 2025 at 3:45 AM
But skiing is the greatest sport yet invented
I think in general the larger your system/ridership, the greater passenger rev is as a percentage of revenue. Obviously there’s both supply and demand explanations there. But you’d still need to make up more money in both absolute and percentage terms, the larger your ridership
June 12, 2025 at 5:45 PM
I think in general the larger your system/ridership, the greater passenger rev is as a percentage of revenue. Obviously there’s both supply and demand explanations there. But you’d still need to make up more money in both absolute and percentage terms, the larger your ridership
I kinda like just calling it test time compute. Like, the models are “burning more test-time compute”, and the fact that they do it through token-space is just because we roped them to doing it that way. Like, it’s not “reasoning” — it’s got an option to do 30x the forward passes, so it does
June 12, 2025 at 5:23 PM
I kinda like just calling it test time compute. Like, the models are “burning more test-time compute”, and the fact that they do it through token-space is just because we roped them to doing it that way. Like, it’s not “reasoning” — it’s got an option to do 30x the forward passes, so it does
I think you can just get away with a lot when you make bangers
June 11, 2025 at 8:39 PM
I think you can just get away with a lot when you make bangers
Sooo many interns just squat on gpus because they don’t know what they’re doing
May 22, 2025 at 3:14 PM
Sooo many interns just squat on gpus because they don’t know what they’re doing
I think it also happens a lot on TikTok, but more in a more opaque and difficult-to-quantify way
May 21, 2025 at 7:20 PM
I think it also happens a lot on TikTok, but more in a more opaque and difficult-to-quantify way
Points 5 and 6 make no sense to me.
But “we should all act like Republicans are the common enemy” seems like a reasonable basis for an alliance. I’m surprised that reads as “capitulation of the left” to you.
But “we should all act like Republicans are the common enemy” seems like a reasonable basis for an alliance. I’m surprised that reads as “capitulation of the left” to you.
May 20, 2025 at 3:24 PM
Points 5 and 6 make no sense to me.
But “we should all act like Republicans are the common enemy” seems like a reasonable basis for an alliance. I’m surprised that reads as “capitulation of the left” to you.
But “we should all act like Republicans are the common enemy” seems like a reasonable basis for an alliance. I’m surprised that reads as “capitulation of the left” to you.
We’d always overfit the agent to like “go to the top-left of the map”
May 12, 2025 at 10:14 PM
We’d always overfit the agent to like “go to the top-left of the map”