without necessarily increasing intra-party hostility. But that happened mostly because there was a consensus to "reduce the temperature". This consensus is largely absent today, especially because MAGA elites seem to present the CK assassination as mainly the fault of their left-wing opponents. 3/x

Great job, very nice and insightful paper.

Congrats, Sam

Well deserved, V, congrats 🎉👏

Many other things can be said, but overall Ro is facing an uphill battle. Reeling from a 9% deficit, markets punishing the possible PRR win, the country faces tough economic choices. Possible bad austerity. Nicușor Dan has a great coalition and a record number of votes though. He may win again end/x

Another special mention goes to Romanian Hungarians, who voted 90% for Dan both in Romania and Hungary, showing again the liberalizing influence of integrated ethnic minorities (see Rovny). Together, Hungarian and Moldovan support make up about 60% of the 800.000 votes Dan won by. 8/x

Diaspora votes exploded in the 2nd round, going from ~1 million to 1.7 million, with a huge anti-PRR mobilization. In Moldova alone turnout doubled, with about 6% of adults voting in Ro elections, 90% for Dan. More Moldovans voted for Dan abroad, making the final Diaspora score 55-45 for Simion 7/x

Since Romania only has about 20% of population of tertiary educated, this wouldn't have been enough for a GAL win without the unexpected mobilization of voters over 65 years old, who also voted 62% for Dan, most likely as a rejection of authoritarianism they had lived through during communism 6/x

The final result was that although Simion had unexpectedly almost received gender parity in the 1st round, women voted 60% against him in the second. Similarly, 75% of tertiary educated voted against him. Under 35 year olds also voted 62% against him, confirming their pro-EU stance 5/x

There are many things to say about Simion's campaign errors. He joined one 3 hour debate against Dan, which he lost, then refused all pther debates. He insulted France and other allies, touting MAGA interests above EU interests & his party took a late strong position against HPV vaccines in Ro 4/x

Many other things can be said, but overall Ro is facing an uphill battle. Reeling from a 9% deficit, markets punishing the possible PRR win, the country faces tough economic choices. Possible austerity. Nicușor Dan has a great coalition and a record number of votes, though. He may win yet end/x

Another special mention goes to Romanian Hungarians, who voted 90% for Dan both in Romania and Hungary, showing again the liberalizing influence of integrated ethnic minorities (see Rovny). Together, Hungarian and Moldovan support make up about 60% of the 800.000 votes Dan won by 8/x

Diaspora votes exploded in the 2nd round, going from ~1 million to 1.7 million, with a huge anti-PRR mobilization. In Moldova alone turnout doubled, with about 6% of adults voting in Ro elections, 90% for Dan. More Moldovans voted for Dan abroad, making the final Diaspora score 55-45 for Simion 7/x

Since Romania only has about 20% of population of tertiary educated, this wouldn't have been enough for a GAL win without the unexpected mobilization of voters over 65 years old, who also voted 62% for Dan, most likely as a rejection of authoritarianism they had lived through during communism 6/x

The final result was that although Simion had unexpectedly almost received gender parity in the 1st round, women voted 60% against him in the second. Similarly, 75% of tertiary educated voted against him. Under 35 year olds also voted 62% against him, confirming their pro-EU stance 5/x