For anyone interested in this question this guy: substack.com/@cyberneticist sent me this excellent resource: people.eecs.berkeley.edu/~jrs/highd/ over on Substack.

For anyone interested in this question this guy: substack.com/@cyberneticist sent me this excellent resource: people.eecs.berkeley.edu/~jrs/highd/ over on Substack.

I've definitely found myself being unfairly negative about LLM's. I suspect it's because I'm completely epistemically exhausted from distinguishing the 0.1% of truth from the hype, and my priors subconsciously become "If someone is saying LLM's can do a thing they are wrong.".

Wikipedia is also a good evaluator of how much I can trust the LLM. If the topic has multiple fleshed-out Wikipedia articles with lots of sources then the LLM is usually mostly right. If there's just one two-paragraph article that cites one paper then usually the LLM output has many hallucinations.

Wikipedia is also a good evaluator of how much I can trust the LLM. If the topic has multiple fleshed-out Wikipedia articles with lots of sources then the LLM is usually mostly right. If there's just one two-paragraph article that cites one paper then usually the LLM output has many hallucinations.

1. Figure out what the current self-maintenance mechanisms are.
2. Figure out how to circumvent those self-maintenance mechanisms.
3. Setup new self-maintenance mechanisms for the new desired state.
4. Wait for the system to transition on its' own to the new desired state.

7/7 Read the full proposal on my blog open.substack.com/pub/danielva.... I'd love some constructive criticism on this idea. #EffectiveAltruism #ScienceFunding #metascience

6/7 Everyone does what they do best: The public identifies important problems through donations, markets efficiently allocate resources, and researchers focus on innovation instead of grant-writing.

5/7 The key innovation: Investors' returns are higher when solutions come sooner. This creates powerful incentives for speed, collaboration, and funding approaches too radical for grants but too public-good-oriented for industry.

4/7 Breakthrough Incentive Markets create outcome pools for specific scientific problems. Investors buy positions, fund promising research, and earn returns when breakthroughs happen.

3/7 What if we harnessed the same efficient mechanisms that drive innovation in the private sector to fund science that solves our most important problems?