Daniel Hurst
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danielhurst.bsky.social
Daniel Hurst
@danielhurst.bsky.social
2K followers 260 following 210 posts
Writing / journalism / comms. He / him. Ngunnawal / Ngambri Country. Views my own
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danielhurst.bsky.social
I mean, better than the alternative of striving for sloppy advice!
October 14, 2025 at 2:32 AM
danielhurst.bsky.social
"verbal induction pack"
October 13, 2025 at 3:17 AM
danielhurst.bsky.social
Yes, I was expecting to see an itemised cast of characters, not one catch-all answer. Lesson learned
September 25, 2025 at 12:36 PM
danielhurst.bsky.social
This is very niche clickbait. It worked
September 25, 2025 at 12:19 PM
danielhurst.bsky.social
More recently the Trump admin has reportedly sought more explicit guarantees about how Australia would act in a war with China. @emmashortis.bsky.social observed recently: “The ‘pre-commitment’ to joining conflict is built in, it’s just that the Trump administration might make it explicit.”

END
September 16, 2025 at 12:49 AM
danielhurst.bsky.social
When I asked about this issue last year, Biden’s assistant secretary of state, Daniel Kritenbrink, declined to explicitly guarantee Australia would have full control of the subs: he wouldn't get “into some of the minutiae of various questions that are out there”. www.theguardian.com/world/articl...
US won’t guarantee Australia will have complete control of Aukus submarines
US Aukus commitment should not be doubted, says assistant secretary of state, while refusing to be drawn on lingering concerns about the sale of nuclear submarines
www.theguardian.com
September 16, 2025 at 12:49 AM
danielhurst.bsky.social
Meanwhile, Australia is sending large sums to the Trump admin with no guarantee the money will be refunded if the US later exercises its right to not transfer Virginia class subs to Australia in the 2030s. Here’s my recent report for @deepcutnews.bsky.social www.deepcutnews.com/p/australia-...
Australia is sending billions to the Trump administration – and wants to keep it secret
The Albanese government is wiring public money to the US military while refusing to release payment details or guarantees.
www.deepcutnews.com
September 16, 2025 at 12:49 AM
danielhurst.bsky.social
That sounds similar to a comment from an unnamed “senior Biden admin official” when AUKUS was first announced in Sept 2021: “this is a fundamental decision ... that binds decisively Australia to the United States and Great Britain for generations”. bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefing-roo...
Extract from September 2021 Biden White House press briefing on AUKUS: I just want to underscore that this is a fundamental decision — fundamental — that binds decisively Australia to the United States and Great Britain for generations. This is the biggest strategic step that Australia has taken in generations. And it is noteworthy that it comes here during the 70th anniversary of ANZUS. So it’s a substantial strategic alignment for Australia, building on a deep partnership with both countries.
September 16, 2025 at 12:49 AM
danielhurst.bsky.social
In the AFR, James Curran reported that Campbell told European officials in 2022 that AUKUS was about “getting Australia off the fence – we have them locked in now for the next 40 years”. I haven't verified this quote but have no reason to disbelieve Curran’s reporting. www.afr.com/policy/forei...
Senior US diplomat lets the AUKUS cat out of the bag
US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell has spelt out publicly the expectations Washington has of Australia to fight alongside it in the Taiwan straits.
www.afr.com
September 16, 2025 at 12:49 AM
danielhurst.bsky.social
At an event on 3 April 2024, Campbell was asked to describe the “ultimate payoff” for AUKUS. He flagged “enormous implications in a variety of scenarios, including in cross-strait circumstances” (meaning the Taiwan Strait)
www.cnas.org/publications...
Extract from a CNAS event: Kurt Campbell: Look, I would argue that as the United States and other nations confront a challenging security environment, that the best way to maintain peace and security is to work constructively and deeply with allies and partners. I would, as a propositional statement, I would begin with that. I think there would be some that would say no, that the best thing that the United States can do is to act alone and to husband its resources and think about unilateral, individual steps it might take. I would reject that thinking. I think what we're confronting now are challenges that require a much deeper engagement with allies and partners. I think the idea over time, Richard, will be in a number of potential areas of conflict and in a number of scenarios that countries acting together, and I think the leading nations right now in the Indo-Pacific, including Japan, Australia, South Korea, I would add India to that framework, increasingly operating more closely, greater capabilities more generally. I think that balance, that additional capacity will help strengthen deterrence more general. I think those practical circumstances in which AUKUS has the potential to have submarines from a number of countries operating in close coordination that could deliver conventional ordinance from long distances. Those have enormous implications in a variety of scenarios, including in cross-strait circumstances, and so I think I would argue that working closely with other nations, not just diplomatically, but in defense avenues, has the consequence of strengthening peace and stability more generally.
September 16, 2025 at 12:49 AM
danielhurst.bsky.social
26 June 2023, Campbell told an event: “I would also just remember that when submarines are provided from the United States to Australia, it's not like they're lost. They will just be deployed by the closest possible allied force.”
www.csis.org/analysis/con...
Extract Kurt Campbell's comments at a CSIS event: We have an unprecedented commitment of Australia into our industrial base to basically focus on improving, what I would argue, is the jewel in the crown, which is our submarine capacity, which frankly needs more resources. It needs more focus. And they’re not only providing it, but they're helping us understand the kinds of investments that the Admiral indicates. And I would simply say, Charles, that it is not just the ability to build two submarines a year of the attack variety that you were describing, it is also getting a troublingly large number of submarines that are in drydock and are in repair back into the water and deployed more quickly. And I think the truth is we do have a plan that will allow us to meet the requirements that are laid out in AUKUS. But I would also just remember that when submarines are provided from the United States to Australia, it's not like they're lost. They will just be deployed by the closest possible allied force. In many cases, you could make the argument that that enhances deterrence, which I would, and, frankly, creates more capacity. And that's really the reason why I'm grateful for the way that you asked these questions. The strategic significance of AUKUS is that both Australia and Great Britain have made a fundamental decision to align with us strategically, not just now, but as the Admiral indicates, into the distant future.
September 16, 2025 at 12:49 AM
danielhurst.bsky.social
But he would later make other comments that sounded flippant or casual about Australian control of the submarines.
September 16, 2025 at 12:49 AM
danielhurst.bsky.social
Addressing an Australian audience later, Campbell tried to clean up those remarks. He flagged “strategic intimacy” but said he understood “how important sovereignty & independence is for Australia so I don’t want to leave any sense that somehow that would be lost”
www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...
Biden adviser says Australia won’t lose sovereignty under Aukus, warns China wants to ‘break’ country
Kurt Campbell says China’s attempts to drive Australia ‘to its knees’ through a trade war won’t succeed
www.theguardian.com
September 16, 2025 at 12:49 AM
danielhurst.bsky.social
On 19 November 2021, Campbell told an event that the AUKUS arrangement among the US, Australia and the UK could lead to “almost a melding" of the three countries' military services
web.archive.org/web/20240125...
Extract from a Guardian article: Those concerns were heightened when, in recent remarks, Campbell predicted Aukus would lead to “almost a melding of our services”. “I would think in the next little while we will have more British sailors serving on our naval vessels, Australians and the like, more of our forward-deployed assets in Australia,” Campbell told the US Institute of Peace two weeks ago. “This leads to a deeper interconnection and, almost a melding in many respects of our services and working together on common purpose that we couldn’t have dreamed about five or 10 years ago.”
September 16, 2025 at 12:49 AM