Daniel Alpert
@danielalpert.bsky.social
Executive Chairman, Westwood Capital LLC; Adjunct Professor and Fellow in Macroeconomics and Finance, Cornell Law School; Author of "The Age of Oversupply;" Co-founder and Chief Economist of Facent; Father and Step-father to six amazing children.
Further, compare China's need for imports, when they last strengthened the CNY 20 years ago, to today. The have a straw into cheap Russian oil now. They control rare earth metals, and ore that they import is on sale. They can take the CNY over 8 without breaking a sweat IMHO.
April 9, 2025 at 12:34 PM
Further, compare China's need for imports, when they last strengthened the CNY 20 years ago, to today. The have a straw into cheap Russian oil now. They control rare earth metals, and ore that they import is on sale. They can take the CNY over 8 without breaking a sweat IMHO.
...but the Japanese government will pressure its central bank not to unduly antagonize Trump. Japan will try a charm offensive with him first (a la UK's Starmer) in hopes of better tariff treatment. But, eventually, the BOJ will enter the fray and weaken the yen, too.
#TradeWar >>
#TradeWar >>
April 9, 2025 at 12:34 PM
...but the Japanese government will pressure its central bank not to unduly antagonize Trump. Japan will try a charm offensive with him first (a la UK's Starmer) in hopes of better tariff treatment. But, eventually, the BOJ will enter the fray and weaken the yen, too.
#TradeWar >>
#TradeWar >>
And the basis trade is collapsing, leading funds to repay JP¥ based lines as they bail out of $ stocks and bonds. The yen is strengthening to a point where it will cause export problems for Japan, too, on top of the #Trumpiffs. The BOJ will be under pressure to intervene here>>
April 9, 2025 at 12:34 PM
And the basis trade is collapsing, leading funds to repay JP¥ based lines as they bail out of $ stocks and bonds. The yen is strengthening to a point where it will cause export problems for Japan, too, on top of the #Trumpiffs. The BOJ will be under pressure to intervene here>>
Cross posting is tough! But I will do what I can.
April 4, 2025 at 12:57 PM
Cross posting is tough! But I will do what I can.