Dan Becker
danbecker.bsky.social
Dan Becker
@danbecker.bsky.social
AI engineer

Formerly: Google. VP AI Development @ DataRobot. Founder of Decision AI. Economist @ FTC

Currently: Using LLMs to predict future events
Books 🤝 AI

Instead of learning from a static text, I'd rather learn ideas/insights through interactive conversation. I'll pay for a long prompt that an LLM can talk through with me.

I really want this!
December 29, 2024 at 4:33 PM
I watched a 10-year build a video game in 15 minutes on bolt.new just by describing what she wants

Making a custom video game was faster than picking up a birthday gift from Target.

2025 will be the year where we fundamentally rethink how custom apps fit in our lives
December 8, 2024 at 7:02 PM
I've spent a couple weeks using LLMs for prediction-market predictions (e.g. on Metaculus & Polymarket)

I'm using conventional ML ideas (iterating based on validation scores). But it's >10X more broadly useful than conventional ML prediction.

Who else is trying LLMs for pred markets?
December 6, 2024 at 5:04 PM
December 6, 2024 at 12:40 PM
Reposted by Dan Becker
I don't really see a clear path where we keep an open internet that is not mostly full of AIs talking to each other. We can't reliably detect AI content, it is cheap and easy to generate, and there are lots of incentives to do so, even besides scams.

You can see the problem on all the social sites.
December 3, 2024 at 7:19 AM
I'm glad to see LLM innovation evolve from train-time scaling to test-time scaling

Train-time scaling favors a winner-take-all outcome. Whoever spends the most upfront will have the best model.

Test-time scaling means more people can experiment and innovate... lower barriers to entry.
November 25, 2024 at 10:30 AM
You can audit LLMs better than human processes

Asking a person a question can influence how they'd subsequently respond to variations on that question

So you can't experiment with any precision

With LLMs, set the temp to 0 and you can experiment very precisely
November 22, 2024 at 10:45 PM
I've assumed schoolteachers don't know how to integrate AI yet. But my 4th grade kid has a creative writing assignment where she iteratively steers AI to write a story for her using magicschool.ai

It looks very fun
November 22, 2024 at 12:19 AM
Is there something better than Cursor for getting AI help in Jupyter notebooks?

Or a trick to improve cursor for notebooks?
November 21, 2024 at 10:08 PM