@d-v-k.bsky.social
Would’ve been interesting to segment buyers between FTHB and current owners. Current owners are by far the most emotional and anchored to their artificial sub-4.5 rate
February 5, 2026 at 8:52 PM
Would’ve been interesting to segment buyers between FTHB and current owners. Current owners are by far the most emotional and anchored to their artificial sub-4.5 rate
Unlikely. If rates in low 6s need home prices to slightly decline ~5%. Or if home prices stay flat need rates to touch mid-5s.
Given lock-in latter scenario is more likely
Given lock-in latter scenario is more likely
December 23, 2025 at 7:56 PM
Unlikely. If rates in low 6s need home prices to slightly decline ~5%. Or if home prices stay flat need rates to touch mid-5s.
Given lock-in latter scenario is more likely
Given lock-in latter scenario is more likely
“they kept refinancing and caught the really low”
Gee, the Fed had nothing to do with that, of course? Right?!
Gee, the Fed had nothing to do with that, of course? Right?!
December 11, 2025 at 5:22 AM
“they kept refinancing and caught the really low”
Gee, the Fed had nothing to do with that, of course? Right?!
Gee, the Fed had nothing to do with that, of course? Right?!
Rise of YIMBYs, Boomer dying off, AirBnB bans growing…housing wealth stagnates for next 10 years.
July 5, 2025 at 1:32 PM
Rise of YIMBYs, Boomer dying off, AirBnB bans growing…housing wealth stagnates for next 10 years.
Need sub-5.5% to start thawing the market.
July 1, 2025 at 2:01 AM
Need sub-5.5% to start thawing the market.
Redfin basing off list prices? Redfin estimate?
“True” number of inventory probably 5%-10% lower?
“True” number of inventory probably 5%-10% lower?
June 3, 2025 at 2:45 PM
Redfin basing off list prices? Redfin estimate?
“True” number of inventory probably 5%-10% lower?
“True” number of inventory probably 5%-10% lower?
Nope. Need sub-5.5%
May 22, 2025 at 9:53 PM
Nope. Need sub-5.5%
• Rates stuck in upper 6s with a climbing 10-year
• Insurance/property tax headwinds
• Employment stagnant/soft
• Trump Admin tariff "reductions" still highest in decades
• Businesses still paralyzed with uncertainty
Improvement...maybe? Bullish...not sure how?
• Insurance/property tax headwinds
• Employment stagnant/soft
• Trump Admin tariff "reductions" still highest in decades
• Businesses still paralyzed with uncertainty
Improvement...maybe? Bullish...not sure how?
May 12, 2025 at 8:24 PM
• Rates stuck in upper 6s with a climbing 10-year
• Insurance/property tax headwinds
• Employment stagnant/soft
• Trump Admin tariff "reductions" still highest in decades
• Businesses still paralyzed with uncertainty
Improvement...maybe? Bullish...not sure how?
• Insurance/property tax headwinds
• Employment stagnant/soft
• Trump Admin tariff "reductions" still highest in decades
• Businesses still paralyzed with uncertainty
Improvement...maybe? Bullish...not sure how?
DOGE chaos won’t just affect government employment. Their mismanagement will ding private sector too.
The shit show their cooking up is going to suck
The shit show their cooking up is going to suck
February 17, 2025 at 7:20 PM
DOGE chaos won’t just affect government employment. Their mismanagement will ding private sector too.
The shit show their cooking up is going to suck
The shit show their cooking up is going to suck
"and they locked in 3% mortgages.”
Very likely underestimating the number of Millennials who weren't able to purchase a home or are now "stuck" in a starter home.
Easy to overlook living in an elder Millennial bubble.
Very likely underestimating the number of Millennials who weren't able to purchase a home or are now "stuck" in a starter home.
Easy to overlook living in an elder Millennial bubble.
January 23, 2025 at 6:03 PM
"and they locked in 3% mortgages.”
Very likely underestimating the number of Millennials who weren't able to purchase a home or are now "stuck" in a starter home.
Easy to overlook living in an elder Millennial bubble.
Very likely underestimating the number of Millennials who weren't able to purchase a home or are now "stuck" in a starter home.
Easy to overlook living in an elder Millennial bubble.
1. How much lower (mid-high 6s?; high 5s?)
2. When are they heading lower (spring? summer? fall?)
3. Why are they heading lower?
Easy to cluck lower rates after a quick run-up of 1% - 1.25% from Sept.
Homebuilders are showing we need low 5s to get transactions.
2. When are they heading lower (spring? summer? fall?)
3. Why are they heading lower?
Easy to cluck lower rates after a quick run-up of 1% - 1.25% from Sept.
Homebuilders are showing we need low 5s to get transactions.
January 14, 2025 at 11:34 PM
1. How much lower (mid-high 6s?; high 5s?)
2. When are they heading lower (spring? summer? fall?)
3. Why are they heading lower?
Easy to cluck lower rates after a quick run-up of 1% - 1.25% from Sept.
Homebuilders are showing we need low 5s to get transactions.
2. When are they heading lower (spring? summer? fall?)
3. Why are they heading lower?
Easy to cluck lower rates after a quick run-up of 1% - 1.25% from Sept.
Homebuilders are showing we need low 5s to get transactions.
I don’t see this with your posts other than getting your knuckled whacked for the bad Dem/Tech take.
We all have bad opinions/takes. It happens
We all have bad opinions/takes. It happens
January 8, 2025 at 3:11 PM
I don’t see this with your posts other than getting your knuckled whacked for the bad Dem/Tech take.
We all have bad opinions/takes. It happens
We all have bad opinions/takes. It happens
What does it mean to be pro-driving?
Other than Mackinac Island and some Florida Keys, Americans can drive wherever they want.
Other than Mackinac Island and some Florida Keys, Americans can drive wherever they want.
January 5, 2025 at 9:40 PM
What does it mean to be pro-driving?
Other than Mackinac Island and some Florida Keys, Americans can drive wherever they want.
Other than Mackinac Island and some Florida Keys, Americans can drive wherever they want.
• O&G: good paying blue-collar work.
• ICE cars: good paying blue-collar work
• EV/Solar/Wind: production is China-coded and US manuf base not robust (yet)
My best guesses, idk.
Very curious how rise of Chinese EVs (affordability & features) impacts global vehicle market
• ICE cars: good paying blue-collar work
• EV/Solar/Wind: production is China-coded and US manuf base not robust (yet)
My best guesses, idk.
Very curious how rise of Chinese EVs (affordability & features) impacts global vehicle market
December 29, 2024 at 6:36 PM
• O&G: good paying blue-collar work.
• ICE cars: good paying blue-collar work
• EV/Solar/Wind: production is China-coded and US manuf base not robust (yet)
My best guesses, idk.
Very curious how rise of Chinese EVs (affordability & features) impacts global vehicle market
• ICE cars: good paying blue-collar work
• EV/Solar/Wind: production is China-coded and US manuf base not robust (yet)
My best guesses, idk.
Very curious how rise of Chinese EVs (affordability & features) impacts global vehicle market
Wish a survey existed to see what share of sub-4%ers truly want to move/upgrade but financially cannot. I assume higher than many let on.
December 27, 2024 at 6:55 PM
Wish a survey existed to see what share of sub-4%ers truly want to move/upgrade but financially cannot. I assume higher than many let on.
Agreed! Exhibit B: remodeled PDX. Airports can be beautiful!
November 24, 2024 at 3:56 AM
Agreed! Exhibit B: remodeled PDX. Airports can be beautiful!
Agree 100% with existing being preferred by buyers primarily due to their location/neighborhoods.
Sellers in those homes unfortunately are the least flexible with price as either it's no mortgage or sub-4 rate. No urgency to sell unless magic number is met.
Sellers in those homes unfortunately are the least flexible with price as either it's no mortgage or sub-4 rate. No urgency to sell unless magic number is met.
November 21, 2024 at 6:48 PM
Agree 100% with existing being preferred by buyers primarily due to their location/neighborhoods.
Sellers in those homes unfortunately are the least flexible with price as either it's no mortgage or sub-4 rate. No urgency to sell unless magic number is met.
Sellers in those homes unfortunately are the least flexible with price as either it's no mortgage or sub-4 rate. No urgency to sell unless magic number is met.
Picking nits imo. Given sticky high prices, new builders have given us the answer to unlock sales: high-4s to low 5s rates.
How/when/will we see those rates in next 2-3 years?
How/when/will we see those rates in next 2-3 years?
November 21, 2024 at 1:17 AM
Picking nits imo. Given sticky high prices, new builders have given us the answer to unlock sales: high-4s to low 5s rates.
How/when/will we see those rates in next 2-3 years?
How/when/will we see those rates in next 2-3 years?