cstewartiii.bsky.social
@cstewartiii.bsky.social
On Tuesday, Cambridge, MA held city elections using its version of proportional representation. Below's a link to the Cambridge Election Commission to learn more. And here are some graphs that show the evolution of the vote distributions.
www.cambridgema.gov/Departments...
www.cambridgema.gov/Departments...
November 5, 2025 at 8:11 PM
On Tuesday, Cambridge, MA held city elections using its version of proportional representation. Below's a link to the Cambridge Election Commission to learn more. And here are some graphs that show the evolution of the vote distributions.
www.cambridgema.gov/Departments...
www.cambridgema.gov/Departments...
The results in the two GA PSC races represented an average 10-point shift toward the Dems compared to 2024. Both candidates even won the Election Day vote handily. (Data are county returns.)
November 5, 2025 at 5:56 AM
The results in the two GA PSC races represented an average 10-point shift toward the Dems compared to 2024. Both candidates even won the Election Day vote handily. (Data are county returns.)
The average two-party Dem vote share for Atty Gen was 3.8 points less than Spanberger. Another great example of a statewide election down ballot. In the end, Jones's DM seems not to have hurt him much.
November 5, 2025 at 4:50 AM
The average two-party Dem vote share for Atty Gen was 3.8 points less than Spanberger. Another great example of a statewide election down ballot. In the end, Jones's DM seems not to have hurt him much.
The average two-party Dem vote share for VA House of Delegates was 2.9 points less than Spanberger. Great example of a statewide election down ballot. The exception was Dist. 20.
November 5, 2025 at 4:23 AM
The average two-party Dem vote share for VA House of Delegates was 2.9 points less than Spanberger. Great example of a statewide election down ballot. The exception was Dist. 20.
Interesting research on the relationship between partisanship of county voters and election boards in NC in setting salaries for local election directors.
www.liebertpub.com/doi/full/10...?
www.liebertpub.com/doi/full/10...?
September 10, 2025 at 8:05 PM
Interesting research on the relationship between partisanship of county voters and election boards in NC in setting salaries for local election directors.
www.liebertpub.com/doi/full/10...?
www.liebertpub.com/doi/full/10...?
Interesting research on ways to induce voters on BMDs to check their ballots.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10...
journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10...
September 9, 2025 at 8:28 PM
Interesting research on ways to induce voters on BMDs to check their ballots.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10...
journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10...
Looks like attitudes toward voter ID in the UK are similar to those in the US.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10....
journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10....
September 9, 2025 at 8:26 PM
Looks like attitudes toward voter ID in the UK are similar to those in the US.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10....
journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10....
Because I know you wanted it, here's the partisan breakdown of mail ballots by party from 2008 to 2024 in each state. Data from the Survey of the Performance of American Elections. For reference, I've also included the national time series.
August 20, 2025 at 7:52 PM
Because I know you wanted it, here's the partisan breakdown of mail ballots by party from 2008 to 2024 in each state. Data from the Survey of the Performance of American Elections. For reference, I've also included the national time series.
I've just written a Substack post that explores some of the public opinion aspects of President Trump's recent anti-VBM post, and the political implications for the movement he has claimed leadership of.
open.substack.com/pub/playing...
open.substack.com/pub/playing...
August 20, 2025 at 3:40 PM
I've just written a Substack post that explores some of the public opinion aspects of President Trump's recent anti-VBM post, and the political implications for the movement he has claimed leadership of.
open.substack.com/pub/playing...
open.substack.com/pub/playing...
The correlation between clean elections and the availability of mail/postal voting is positive, but I suspect the causality runs mostly from free and fair elections to postal voting. On the data, see
www.idea.int/data-tools/... &
www.idea.int/data-tools/...
www.idea.int/data-tools/... &
www.idea.int/data-tools/...
August 19, 2025 at 2:43 PM
The correlation between clean elections and the availability of mail/postal voting is positive, but I suspect the causality runs mostly from free and fair elections to postal voting. On the data, see
www.idea.int/data-tools/... &
www.idea.int/data-tools/...
www.idea.int/data-tools/... &
www.idea.int/data-tools/...
New article: When people have access to newspapers, belief that elections are well run is less likely to be influenced by the winner-loser effect than in counties with little newspaper penetration.
doi.org/10.1016/j.e...
doi.org/10.1016/j.e...
August 14, 2025 at 6:14 PM
New article: When people have access to newspapers, belief that elections are well run is less likely to be influenced by the winner-loser effect than in counties with little newspaper penetration.
doi.org/10.1016/j.e...
doi.org/10.1016/j.e...
Just published: Research into poll worker recruitment that relies on a unique survey of poll workers in 2022. Check it out.
doi.org/10.1111/ssq...
doi.org/10.1111/ssq...
August 11, 2025 at 7:10 PM
Just published: Research into poll worker recruitment that relies on a unique survey of poll workers in 2022. Check it out.
doi.org/10.1111/ssq...
doi.org/10.1111/ssq...
NH has increased documentary requirements for voting by mail. As this ternary plot indicates, NH is among the last 2 traditional states when it comes to convenience voting. The law probably won't affect mail voting rates much overall, but might affect rates for some populations.
August 5, 2025 at 3:19 PM
NH has increased documentary requirements for voting by mail. As this ternary plot indicates, NH is among the last 2 traditional states when it comes to convenience voting. The law probably won't affect mail voting rates much overall, but might affect rates for some populations.
Here's an interesting and important article by a team of social psychologists on the question of how people perceive the fairness of election outcomes given the order in which votes are cast.
doi.org/10.1177/095...
doi.org/10.1177/095...
July 25, 2025 at 6:57 PM
Here's an interesting and important article by a team of social psychologists on the question of how people perceive the fairness of election outcomes given the order in which votes are cast.
doi.org/10.1177/095...
doi.org/10.1177/095...
Greg Huber and colleagues have written an interesting study on beliefs about electoral integrity that distinguishes b/t severity and frequency of fraud, and also b/t uncounted & forgone votes. Check it out.
huber.research.yale.edu/materials/1...
huber.research.yale.edu/materials/1...
July 25, 2025 at 4:00 PM
Greg Huber and colleagues have written an interesting study on beliefs about electoral integrity that distinguishes b/t severity and frequency of fraud, and also b/t uncounted & forgone votes. Check it out.
huber.research.yale.edu/materials/1...
huber.research.yale.edu/materials/1...
Yes, the Google trends data indicate a recent surge in searches on "Epstein." However, the states with the most searches (relatively speaking) are disproportionately from blue states.
July 14, 2025 at 4:08 PM
Yes, the Google trends data indicate a recent surge in searches on "Epstein." However, the states with the most searches (relatively speaking) are disproportionately from blue states.
As the nation and state ponder California's distinctly long period for certifying elections, remember that the certification deadline isn't the only distinct thing about California election laws.
July 11, 2025 at 2:17 PM
As the nation and state ponder California's distinctly long period for certifying elections, remember that the certification deadline isn't the only distinct thing about California election laws.
Just a reminder: @mitelectionlab is hosting the EAC's Data Summit. If you're in town, come by MIT to be in person. If out of town, you can follow the livestream. (Register if you will be attending in person. You don't have to register if you're remote.)
www.eac.gov/events/2025...
www.eac.gov/events/2025...
July 8, 2025 at 7:43 PM
Just a reminder: @mitelectionlab is hosting the EAC's Data Summit. If you're in town, come by MIT to be in person. If out of town, you can follow the livestream. (Register if you will be attending in person. You don't have to register if you're remote.)
www.eac.gov/events/2025...
www.eac.gov/events/2025...
A reminder that I'll be participating in this event at AEI tomorrow to talk about how the 2024 was run--with data. I'm looking forward to the event with three friends and colleagues. Attend in person or watch online.
www.aei.org/events/how-...
www.aei.org/events/how-...
June 30, 2025 at 3:42 PM
A reminder that I'll be participating in this event at AEI tomorrow to talk about how the 2024 was run--with data. I'm looking forward to the event with three friends and colleagues. Attend in person or watch online.
www.aei.org/events/how-...
www.aei.org/events/how-...
I just published this discussion of Rockland County, NY's 2024 election results on my Substack: open.substack.com/pub/playing...
June 23, 2025 at 2:38 PM
I just published this discussion of Rockland County, NY's 2024 election results on my Substack: open.substack.com/pub/playing...
On the occasion of the PA House being ready to approve a new voter ID law, here's a time series of D & R support for requiring photo ID to vote among PA respondents to the SPAE. The D growth in support mirrors national trends.
May 13, 2025 at 8:49 PM
On the occasion of the PA House being ready to approve a new voter ID law, here's a time series of D & R support for requiring photo ID to vote among PA respondents to the SPAE. The D growth in support mirrors national trends.
The latest from MEDSL on PNAS: "Audits of the 2020 American election show an accurate vote count"
www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073...
www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073...
May 13, 2025 at 8:19 PM
The latest from MEDSL on PNAS: "Audits of the 2020 American election show an accurate vote count"
www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073...
www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073...
Although conversion was some of the story in WI, so was turnout. Here's a plot of the change in turnout in counties ('25 vs. '24') against Trump% in '24: Excepting Milwaukee County, strong negative correlation. Also, Musk's rally didn't appear to goose turnout in Brown County.
April 2, 2025 at 8:53 PM
Although conversion was some of the story in WI, so was turnout. Here's a plot of the change in turnout in counties ('25 vs. '24') against Trump% in '24: Excepting Milwaukee County, strong negative correlation. Also, Musk's rally didn't appear to goose turnout in Brown County.
Graph showing change in turnout in FL CD-1 precincts from '24 prez election to special election vs. Trump '24 %. Turnout slightly less in more pro-Trump precincts. The major negative outliers were in DeFuniak Springs + precincts 210 & 230 in Walton County.
April 2, 2025 at 3:23 PM
Graph showing change in turnout in FL CD-1 precincts from '24 prez election to special election vs. Trump '24 %. Turnout slightly less in more pro-Trump precincts. The major negative outliers were in DeFuniak Springs + precincts 210 & 230 in Walton County.
Here's the scatterplot of the % for Fine (R) in the FL CD6 race against Trump '24, at the precinct level. The uniform swing is -7.3 points.
April 2, 2025 at 1:27 AM
Here's the scatterplot of the % for Fine (R) in the FL CD6 race against Trump '24, at the precinct level. The uniform swing is -7.3 points.