Chris Carollo
@crazytalk.bsky.social
Developer on L4D2, Dota 2, and Steam at Valve. Thief and DX:IW before that. Gameplay and machine learning.
Comments my own.
BLM
Accountability in Policing
Comments my own.
BLM
Accountability in Policing
It's worth noting that the ICS does include questions about opinions on the broader economy and projections about the future, not just current personal conditions.
November 9, 2025 at 5:43 PM
It's worth noting that the ICS does include questions about opinions on the broader economy and projections about the future, not just current personal conditions.
This is Will's whole thesis -- that people's media and social environments determine how they feel about things like "the economy" far more than their own personal material conditions.
November 9, 2025 at 8:05 AM
This is Will's whole thesis -- that people's media and social environments determine how they feel about things like "the economy" far more than their own personal material conditions.
Life expectancy is rising again post-Covid and the peak of the opioid crisis.
Two-income households have declined since the mid-90s.
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12...
Two-income households have declined since the mid-90s.
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12...
Multiple Jobholders as a Percent of Employed
Multiple Jobholders as a Percent of Employed
fred.stlouisfed.org
November 9, 2025 at 7:50 AM
Life expectancy is rising again post-Covid and the peak of the opioid crisis.
Two-income households have declined since the mid-90s.
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12...
Two-income households have declined since the mid-90s.
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12...
There are for sure disparities between the metrics, and some of those are for good reasons (ie. a large portion of the population is not impacted by current housing prices).
But it's not like BLS "doesn't include home prices" -- a significant portion of it is based on housing costs.
But it's not like BLS "doesn't include home prices" -- a significant portion of it is based on housing costs.
November 9, 2025 at 7:46 AM
There are for sure disparities between the metrics, and some of those are for good reasons (ie. a large portion of the population is not impacted by current housing prices).
But it's not like BLS "doesn't include home prices" -- a significant portion of it is based on housing costs.
But it's not like BLS "doesn't include home prices" -- a significant portion of it is based on housing costs.
I think people do feel that in their real lives, but they don't feel that about the economy as a whole, because that opinion isn't driven by their own experiences.
And I think you're sorely mistaken if you think previous generations had better median lifestyles than we do today.
And I think you're sorely mistaken if you think previous generations had better median lifestyles than we do today.
November 9, 2025 at 7:14 AM
I think people do feel that in their real lives, but they don't feel that about the economy as a whole, because that opinion isn't driven by their own experiences.
And I think you're sorely mistaken if you think previous generations had better median lifestyles than we do today.
And I think you're sorely mistaken if you think previous generations had better median lifestyles than we do today.
It does not include literally "house prices", but as the article explains, it *does* include a substantial factor for housing costs, whether that's rental or mortgage payments.
About a third of CPI is housing (or "shelter" more broadly).
www.brookings.edu/articles/how...
About a third of CPI is housing (or "shelter" more broadly).
www.brookings.edu/articles/how...
How does the Consumer Price Index account for the cost of housing? | Brookings
The Hutchins Center explains how the BLS currently measures changes in the cost of housing for both renters and homeowners.
www.brookings.edu
November 9, 2025 at 7:07 AM
It does not include literally "house prices", but as the article explains, it *does* include a substantial factor for housing costs, whether that's rental or mortgage payments.
About a third of CPI is housing (or "shelter" more broadly).
www.brookings.edu/articles/how...
About a third of CPI is housing (or "shelter" more broadly).
www.brookings.edu/articles/how...
Wages have kept pace -- and more! -- for things overall, which includes those essentials. That's the initial claim, and it's true.
Is that the case for every person? No. Is it for every item or category? No. But overall, it's true.
Is that the case for every person? No. Is it for every item or category? No. But overall, it's true.
November 9, 2025 at 7:00 AM
Wages have kept pace -- and more! -- for things overall, which includes those essentials. That's the initial claim, and it's true.
Is that the case for every person? No. Is it for every item or category? No. But overall, it's true.
Is that the case for every person? No. Is it for every item or category? No. But overall, it's true.
"Telling people their personal real world experience is wrong" is very far from the initial claim that started the thread.
November 9, 2025 at 6:55 AM
"Telling people their personal real world experience is wrong" is very far from the initial claim that started the thread.
It does include housing!
November 9, 2025 at 5:33 AM
It does include housing!
I think it’s better than any other measure, yeah.
November 9, 2025 at 5:32 AM
I think it’s better than any other measure, yeah.
To the degree that the middle class has been “hollowed out”, it’s been overwhelmingly because they got richer, not poorer.
November 9, 2025 at 5:29 AM
To the degree that the middle class has been “hollowed out”, it’s been overwhelmingly because they got richer, not poorer.
CPI is literally designed to capture the whole story (rather than, say, cherry picking specific elements…)
November 9, 2025 at 5:26 AM
CPI is literally designed to capture the whole story (rather than, say, cherry picking specific elements…)
You’re literally replying to a chart that shows how incomes have not stagnated (and particularly not since 2004).
November 9, 2025 at 5:25 AM
You’re literally replying to a chart that shows how incomes have not stagnated (and particularly not since 2004).
The CPI absolutely includes housing.
November 9, 2025 at 5:23 AM
The CPI absolutely includes housing.
If there was a generational stagnation of purchasing power, it didn’t happen during the bout of post-Covid inflation though.
November 9, 2025 at 3:47 AM
If there was a generational stagnation of purchasing power, it didn’t happen during the bout of post-Covid inflation though.
They are, in aggregate, less overpriced than they ever have been in history.
(This was true as of 2024, ymmv this year)
(This was true as of 2024, ymmv this year)
November 9, 2025 at 3:46 AM
They are, in aggregate, less overpriced than they ever have been in history.
(This was true as of 2024, ymmv this year)
(This was true as of 2024, ymmv this year)
The obvious linkage is that it's what they tell pollsters influenced their vote.
The problems is that people read that as "actual inflation/prices" and not "the prevailing narrative about inflation/prices", which may or may not line up with actual inflation/prices.
The problems is that people read that as "actual inflation/prices" and not "the prevailing narrative about inflation/prices", which may or may not line up with actual inflation/prices.
November 7, 2025 at 12:12 AM
The obvious linkage is that it's what they tell pollsters influenced their vote.
The problems is that people read that as "actual inflation/prices" and not "the prevailing narrative about inflation/prices", which may or may not line up with actual inflation/prices.
The problems is that people read that as "actual inflation/prices" and not "the prevailing narrative about inflation/prices", which may or may not line up with actual inflation/prices.
The "national party image" is more about the quality of the team as a whole though, and dovetails with a lot of what you've said about media and narrative and shared social perception of the parties (and how people's identities fit into those parties).
November 4, 2025 at 8:13 PM
The "national party image" is more about the quality of the team as a whole though, and dovetails with a lot of what you've said about media and narrative and shared social perception of the parties (and how people's identities fit into those parties).
That's sort of the point though -- people thought that Trump was *more moderate* than Harris was.
November 4, 2025 at 8:11 PM
That's sort of the point though -- people thought that Trump was *more moderate* than Harris was.
How is this different than Fox News telling people to believe that immigration is suddenly a huge issue? Basically: how does your community coalesce around an idea? It's got to come from somewhere, and places like Fox News is a major one of those sources.
November 3, 2025 at 11:34 PM
How is this different than Fox News telling people to believe that immigration is suddenly a huge issue? Basically: how does your community coalesce around an idea? It's got to come from somewhere, and places like Fox News is a major one of those sources.
It entirely depends on the politician though. Bernie campaigns on a ton of popular stuff and feels genuine. Mamdani feels genuine. Newsom goes were the wind blows and it always feels fake.
It's not THAT hard to make a genuinely-felt case for all of these issues.
It's not THAT hard to make a genuinely-felt case for all of these issues.
October 31, 2025 at 4:33 PM
It entirely depends on the politician though. Bernie campaigns on a ton of popular stuff and feels genuine. Mamdani feels genuine. Newsom goes were the wind blows and it always feels fake.
It's not THAT hard to make a genuinely-felt case for all of these issues.
It's not THAT hard to make a genuinely-felt case for all of these issues.
Matt talks about Plantner a lot here and I think you're mischaracterizing his support pretty badly as shifting based on the reveal of the tattoo: www.slowboring.com/p/building-a.... He's also pretty positive on Mamdani there too.
October 30, 2025 at 5:45 PM
Matt talks about Plantner a lot here and I think you're mischaracterizing his support pretty badly as shifting based on the reveal of the tattoo: www.slowboring.com/p/building-a.... He's also pretty positive on Mamdani there too.
An obvious "psychological impact": there being a decades-high bout of inflation makes establishing a narrative about inflation and affordability much easier.
Yes, the narrative itself was the the thing that ultimately mattered, but material conditions made that easier to stick.
Yes, the narrative itself was the the thing that ultimately mattered, but material conditions made that easier to stick.
October 28, 2025 at 7:30 PM
An obvious "psychological impact": there being a decades-high bout of inflation makes establishing a narrative about inflation and affordability much easier.
Yes, the narrative itself was the the thing that ultimately mattered, but material conditions made that easier to stick.
Yes, the narrative itself was the the thing that ultimately mattered, but material conditions made that easier to stick.
Acknowledging that the 2022 and 2024 electorates were different is not p-hacking.
October 12, 2025 at 7:22 PM
Acknowledging that the 2022 and 2024 electorates were different is not p-hacking.