For someone who ran on the ills of inflation, sparking trade wars is usually not a good approach. Just look at the steel fabricators in Missouri that closed after Trump's tariffs in his first term. That production just moved out of the US.

My take is that Trump will again impose the tariffs because he loved all the industries and countries making the efforts to win him over. Just like last time, the companies and countries with the best lobbyists and influence will do the best.

In Trump's first term, I worked with companies to improve their supply chains in the face of steel tariffs. The simple solution was to move production of more complex assemblies from the US to Mexico to avoid the tariffs on raw materials. It had the opposite impact of re-shoring jobs.