Conventional Take
@conventionaltake.bsky.social
It is if your long term beta to EMBI<<1 (which it should be for hedge funds?)
December 17, 2025 at 5:29 PM
It is if your long term beta to EMBI<<1 (which it should be for hedge funds?)
No problem, easy mistake! Glad to follow you again on here, was a big fan of your account on Twtr
December 12, 2025 at 10:15 PM
No problem, easy mistake! Glad to follow you again on here, was a big fan of your account on Twtr
Do you expect companies which stick with human copywriters to massively outperform (in terms of sales and profits) those which move to AI?
December 12, 2025 at 10:14 PM
Do you expect companies which stick with human copywriters to massively outperform (in terms of sales and profits) those which move to AI?
Sorry Yuriy, I don’t understand- the screenshot is from January 2024? Why would the Tories claim this was impossible when they were in government when this happened?
December 12, 2025 at 10:09 PM
Sorry Yuriy, I don’t understand- the screenshot is from January 2024? Why would the Tories claim this was impossible when they were in government when this happened?
Thanks! Yes I thought so. But (sorry to be cynical) that’s hindsight bias (the inquiry was inevitably going to find a structural polling bias in favour of Labour, given the result). So saying that “Labour were overstated” is equivalent to “there was a polling miss in favour of the Tories”.
December 12, 2025 at 7:01 PM
Thanks! Yes I thought so. But (sorry to be cynical) that’s hindsight bias (the inquiry was inevitably going to find a structural polling bias in favour of Labour, given the result). So saying that “Labour were overstated” is equivalent to “there was a polling miss in favour of the Tories”.
What do you mean by revised poll figures? Aren’t all poll figures “final” once conducted?
December 12, 2025 at 5:43 PM
What do you mean by revised poll figures? Aren’t all poll figures “final” once conducted?
Nice, thanks!
December 12, 2025 at 3:20 PM
Nice, thanks!
Should also contextualise NHS spending over this period!
December 12, 2025 at 3:08 PM
Should also contextualise NHS spending over this period!
Classic example of the nirvana fallacy www.newstatesman.com/politics/201...
Jeremy Corbyn and the nirvana fallacy
A politician who uses the nirvana fallacy gains an easy rhetorical advantage. But it's a double-edged sword.
www.newstatesman.com
December 7, 2025 at 11:09 PM
Classic example of the nirvana fallacy www.newstatesman.com/politics/201...
Meloni and Frederiksen aren’t *that* unpopular (sort of Cameron-level rather than Truss/Hollande level unpopularity IIRC). Wonder why?
December 2, 2025 at 4:08 PM
Meloni and Frederiksen aren’t *that* unpopular (sort of Cameron-level rather than Truss/Hollande level unpopularity IIRC). Wonder why?
It was possible to work out that the NI cut was unaffordable before the election!
December 2, 2025 at 11:49 AM
It was possible to work out that the NI cut was unaffordable before the election!
If only someone had the power to reverse it, or to argue it was an unaffordable pre-election bribe and should be reversed!
December 2, 2025 at 10:24 AM
If only someone had the power to reverse it, or to argue it was an unaffordable pre-election bribe and should be reversed!
How about “the government today committed to spending the tax revenue of Darlington to…”
December 1, 2025 at 4:11 PM
How about “the government today committed to spending the tax revenue of Darlington to…”
Oh my days
Voters a decade ago: “we don’t want more identikit, focus-grouped politicians, we want authenticity ”
*finger on monkey’s paw curls*
Voters a decade ago: “we don’t want more identikit, focus-grouped politicians, we want authenticity ”
*finger on monkey’s paw curls*
November 28, 2025 at 12:47 PM
Oh my days
Voters a decade ago: “we don’t want more identikit, focus-grouped politicians, we want authenticity ”
*finger on monkey’s paw curls*
Voters a decade ago: “we don’t want more identikit, focus-grouped politicians, we want authenticity ”
*finger on monkey’s paw curls*
What did she say?
November 28, 2025 at 12:40 PM
What did she say?
Sure they had a chance to do it then- I doubt they will pass up another opportunity! (Also Trump’s tariffs were bad but not global financial crisis or pandemic bad)
November 27, 2025 at 2:12 PM
Sure they had a chance to do it then- I doubt they will pass up another opportunity! (Also Trump’s tariffs were bad but not global financial crisis or pandemic bad)
I think in the event of a “bad thing” they will point at that and say “look, *that’s* why we had to make <unpopular policy choice>.”
Let’s see if it works!
Let’s see if it works!
November 27, 2025 at 12:51 PM
I think in the event of a “bad thing” they will point at that and say “look, *that’s* why we had to make <unpopular policy choice>.”
Let’s see if it works!
Let’s see if it works!
Increases were Boris+Priti’s fault! They call it the boriswave for a reason
November 27, 2025 at 12:08 PM
Increases were Boris+Priti’s fault! They call it the boriswave for a reason
Maybe! But look at US per capita growth as a benchmark (US GDP pc is 50% higher than the UK, and has grown much faster in last two decades
November 27, 2025 at 8:52 AM
Maybe! But look at US per capita growth as a benchmark (US GDP pc is 50% higher than the UK, and has grown much faster in last two decades
I wonder why mansion taxes generate more discussion than taxes on financial assets? How many asset (very) rich cash poor households can there be?
November 26, 2025 at 2:46 PM
I wonder why mansion taxes generate more discussion than taxes on financial assets? How many asset (very) rich cash poor households can there be?
Yes- let’s see if the fiscal risk premium in Gilts vs Bunds (say) erodes meaningfully from here
November 26, 2025 at 2:36 PM
Yes- let’s see if the fiscal risk premium in Gilts vs Bunds (say) erodes meaningfully from here