Conus Business
@conus.bsky.social
Providing quality business services to Queensland since 2006. Economics with a special focus on regional data. www.conus.com.au
Interesting snippet from today's inflation data.
y/y change (as per Quarterly data)
Men's clothing -0.1% - Women's clothing +2.6%
Men's shoes -1.8% - Women's shoes +5.4%
Maybe more women should start wearing men's cloths and shoes.
y/y change (as per Quarterly data)
Men's clothing -0.1% - Women's clothing +2.6%
Men's shoes -1.8% - Women's shoes +5.4%
Maybe more women should start wearing men's cloths and shoes.
January 28, 2026 at 1:43 AM
Interesting snippet from today's inflation data.
y/y change (as per Quarterly data)
Men's clothing -0.1% - Women's clothing +2.6%
Men's shoes -1.8% - Women's shoes +5.4%
Maybe more women should start wearing men's cloths and shoes.
y/y change (as per Quarterly data)
Men's clothing -0.1% - Women's clothing +2.6%
Men's shoes -1.8% - Women's shoes +5.4%
Maybe more women should start wearing men's cloths and shoes.
Is this across all US Govt websites?! Extraordinary language,
November 4, 2025 at 3:48 AM
Is this across all US Govt websites?! Extraordinary language,
Don't let the headline fool you
July CPI > than expctd 2.8%
But 3-month avg (tracks well w/ qtrly data)
CPI 2.3%
Core 2.4%
Core stable & below midpoint of target
Likely moderate mkt f'cast of rate cuts
Unlikely cause major shift in RBA's thinking
Underscores why RBA surprised & held rates in Jul
July CPI > than expctd 2.8%
But 3-month avg (tracks well w/ qtrly data)
CPI 2.3%
Core 2.4%
Core stable & below midpoint of target
Likely moderate mkt f'cast of rate cuts
Unlikely cause major shift in RBA's thinking
Underscores why RBA surprised & held rates in Jul
August 27, 2025 at 2:30 AM
Don't let the headline fool you
July CPI > than expctd 2.8%
But 3-month avg (tracks well w/ qtrly data)
CPI 2.3%
Core 2.4%
Core stable & below midpoint of target
Likely moderate mkt f'cast of rate cuts
Unlikely cause major shift in RBA's thinking
Underscores why RBA surprised & held rates in Jul
July CPI > than expctd 2.8%
But 3-month avg (tracks well w/ qtrly data)
CPI 2.3%
Core 2.4%
Core stable & below midpoint of target
Likely moderate mkt f'cast of rate cuts
Unlikely cause major shift in RBA's thinking
Underscores why RBA surprised & held rates in Jul
Factors driving Participation changes among the State and Territories over the past 5 years.
It's all been about the increase in female propensity to engage in the labour force.
It's all been about the increase in female propensity to engage in the labour force.
August 21, 2025 at 10:05 PM
Factors driving Participation changes among the State and Territories over the past 5 years.
It's all been about the increase in female propensity to engage in the labour force.
It's all been about the increase in female propensity to engage in the labour force.
Australian Retail Trade continues to run well ahead of its pre-COVID Trend levels. +4.2% y/y
July 31, 2025 at 5:00 AM
Australian Retail Trade continues to run well ahead of its pre-COVID Trend levels. +4.2% y/y
Trend Job Vacancies on the way back up in QLD and Victoria.
June 26, 2025 at 4:36 AM
Trend Job Vacancies on the way back up in QLD and Victoria.
Population growth State of Origin 2024
NSW +1.3%
QLD +1.9%
Also...Queensland Trend employment breaks through 3 million for the first time.
NSW +1.3%
QLD +1.9%
Also...Queensland Trend employment breaks through 3 million for the first time.
June 19, 2025 at 7:20 AM
Population growth State of Origin 2024
NSW +1.3%
QLD +1.9%
Also...Queensland Trend employment breaks through 3 million for the first time.
NSW +1.3%
QLD +1.9%
Also...Queensland Trend employment breaks through 3 million for the first time.
The large gap that had existed between prices and rents in Cairns has finally closed (for houses at least). A gap that was at one point as wide as 30%!
Both house prices and rents are now up 60% since 2016.
Unit rent increases are still about 10% above price gains.
Both house prices and rents are now up 60% since 2016.
Unit rent increases are still about 10% above price gains.
June 16, 2025 at 10:34 PM
The large gap that had existed between prices and rents in Cairns has finally closed (for houses at least). A gap that was at one point as wide as 30%!
Both house prices and rents are now up 60% since 2016.
Unit rent increases are still about 10% above price gains.
Both house prices and rents are now up 60% since 2016.
Unit rent increases are still about 10% above price gains.
Can we please stop banging on about a 'juvenile crime crisis' in Queensland and instead actually look at the data?
Juvenile crime in QLD peaked back at the end of 2022 and has been falling virtually ever since. #QLD
Juvenile crime in QLD peaked back at the end of 2022 and has been falling virtually ever since. #QLD
June 2, 2025 at 1:35 AM
Can we please stop banging on about a 'juvenile crime crisis' in Queensland and instead actually look at the data?
Juvenile crime in QLD peaked back at the end of 2022 and has been falling virtually ever since. #QLD
Juvenile crime in QLD peaked back at the end of 2022 and has been falling virtually ever since. #QLD
Monthly CPI in April unch @ 2.4% with Trimmed Mean edging higher to 2.8%.
3-month averages of the monthly data show CPI 2.4% and Trimmed Mean 2.7%...both unchanged from March.
No reason here for RBA *not* to cut further, but no reason for urgency either!
3-month averages of the monthly data show CPI 2.4% and Trimmed Mean 2.7%...both unchanged from March.
No reason here for RBA *not* to cut further, but no reason for urgency either!
May 28, 2025 at 1:46 AM
Monthly CPI in April unch @ 2.4% with Trimmed Mean edging higher to 2.8%.
3-month averages of the monthly data show CPI 2.4% and Trimmed Mean 2.7%...both unchanged from March.
No reason here for RBA *not* to cut further, but no reason for urgency either!
3-month averages of the monthly data show CPI 2.4% and Trimmed Mean 2.7%...both unchanged from March.
No reason here for RBA *not* to cut further, but no reason for urgency either!
No surprises in today's inflation data. RBA (and market) will not be changing their thinking on rates on the back of these numbers for Q1.
CPI +0.9% / +2.4%
Trimmed Mean +0.7% / +2.9%
Tradables -0.4% / +0.9%
Non-tradables +1.6% / +3.2%
Discretionary -0.2% / +2.5%
Non-discretionary +1.8% / +2.3%
CPI +0.9% / +2.4%
Trimmed Mean +0.7% / +2.9%
Tradables -0.4% / +0.9%
Non-tradables +1.6% / +3.2%
Discretionary -0.2% / +2.5%
Non-discretionary +1.8% / +2.3%
April 30, 2025 at 2:22 AM
No surprises in today's inflation data. RBA (and market) will not be changing their thinking on rates on the back of these numbers for Q1.
CPI +0.9% / +2.4%
Trimmed Mean +0.7% / +2.9%
Tradables -0.4% / +0.9%
Non-tradables +1.6% / +3.2%
Discretionary -0.2% / +2.5%
Non-discretionary +1.8% / +2.3%
CPI +0.9% / +2.4%
Trimmed Mean +0.7% / +2.9%
Tradables -0.4% / +0.9%
Non-tradables +1.6% / +3.2%
Discretionary -0.2% / +2.5%
Non-discretionary +1.8% / +2.3%
Juvenile crime has been on a clear downward trend since 2022 in the Far North and yet we still get told it's a 'juvenile crime crisis'. www.linkedin.com/feed/update/...
April 28, 2025 at 6:10 AM
Juvenile crime has been on a clear downward trend since 2022 in the Far North and yet we still get told it's a 'juvenile crime crisis'. www.linkedin.com/feed/update/...
The gradual easing in the Australian labour market may not be very evident in the unemployment rate (Trend 4.0% or 4.1% for the past 13 months) but it's starting to show up in the Trend JobSeekers data which is now up 11.9% y/y.
April 22, 2025 at 11:26 PM
The gradual easing in the Australian labour market may not be very evident in the unemployment rate (Trend 4.0% or 4.1% for the past 13 months) but it's starting to show up in the Trend JobSeekers data which is now up 11.9% y/y.
Over the long term trend in building approvals have been similar in Cairns and Townsville. While both regions are struggling with housing shortages, Townsville has been doing much better in the last 12 months.
However, an avg of 100 approvals/month is clearly nowhere near enough for either region!
However, an avg of 100 approvals/month is clearly nowhere near enough for either region!
April 10, 2025 at 9:29 PM
Over the long term trend in building approvals have been similar in Cairns and Townsville. While both regions are struggling with housing shortages, Townsville has been doing much better in the last 12 months.
However, an avg of 100 approvals/month is clearly nowhere near enough for either region!
However, an avg of 100 approvals/month is clearly nowhere near enough for either region!
Futures market pricing in cuts as far as the eye can see!
April 7, 2025 at 3:38 AM
Futures market pricing in cuts as far as the eye can see!
Job Vacancies Feb quarter (ABS & Conus Trends) y/y
AUS -8.4%
NSW -7.3%
VIC -18.2%
QLD -2.5%
SA -10.2%
WA -14.0%
TAS -12.5%
NT +11.2%
ACT -13.4%
AUS -8.4%
NSW -7.3%
VIC -18.2%
QLD -2.5%
SA -10.2%
WA -14.0%
TAS -12.5%
NT +11.2%
ACT -13.4%
April 3, 2025 at 12:47 AM
Job Vacancies Feb quarter (ABS & Conus Trends) y/y
AUS -8.4%
NSW -7.3%
VIC -18.2%
QLD -2.5%
SA -10.2%
WA -14.0%
TAS -12.5%
NT +11.2%
ACT -13.4%
AUS -8.4%
NSW -7.3%
VIC -18.2%
QLD -2.5%
SA -10.2%
WA -14.0%
TAS -12.5%
NT +11.2%
ACT -13.4%
It's hard to overstate the impact that increasing female participation in the labour market has had on Cairns and Townsville in the past decade. Particularly when you consider against the impact across the Nation.
March 31, 2025 at 4:37 AM
It's hard to overstate the impact that increasing female participation in the labour market has had on Cairns and Townsville in the past decade. Particularly when you consider against the impact across the Nation.
Beautiful little fella on a frond on the driveway.
March 28, 2025 at 4:41 AM
Beautiful little fella on a frond on the driveway.
Although the Feb data for Cairns Airport passengers were low (as expected seasonally), the Conus Trend continues to improve and now sits higher than it's been since August 2019.
March 11, 2025 at 10:24 PM
Although the Feb data for Cairns Airport passengers were low (as expected seasonally), the Conus Trend continues to improve and now sits higher than it's been since August 2019.
The growth of female Participation has been a fave topic of mine. This chart shows not only how significant that shift has been, but also that female PR is a far more volatile variable than for males; the collapse in PR as COVID struck was twice as dramatic for females as males at the time.
February 27, 2025 at 3:34 AM
The growth of female Participation has been a fave topic of mine. This chart shows not only how significant that shift has been, but also that female PR is a far more volatile variable than for males; the collapse in PR as COVID struck was twice as dramatic for females as males at the time.
Cairns Trend employment up another 200 (+3.4% pa) and unemployment rate stable at 4.2%
February 27, 2025 at 3:11 AM
Cairns Trend employment up another 200 (+3.4% pa) and unemployment rate stable at 4.2%
Some interesting stats for the sugarcane sector.
Area under cane up
Number of businesses down (consolidation)
Total production down (poor season)
But.......Total value up HUGE (sugar prices!)
Area under cane up
Number of businesses down (consolidation)
Total production down (poor season)
But.......Total value up HUGE (sugar prices!)
February 26, 2025 at 1:10 AM
Some interesting stats for the sugarcane sector.
Area under cane up
Number of businesses down (consolidation)
Total production down (poor season)
But.......Total value up HUGE (sugar prices!)
Area under cane up
Number of businesses down (consolidation)
Total production down (poor season)
But.......Total value up HUGE (sugar prices!)
Core inflation moves back into the RBA's 2-3% target band in the Jan data (Trimmed Mean 3-month avg 2.9% from 3.1%), even as Headline nudges slightly higher (CPI 3-month avg 2.4% from 2.3%).
February 26, 2025 at 12:45 AM
Core inflation moves back into the RBA's 2-3% target band in the Jan data (Trimmed Mean 3-month avg 2.9% from 3.1%), even as Headline nudges slightly higher (CPI 3-month avg 2.4% from 2.3%).
Total avg weekly earnings +5.5% y/y
WPI +3.2% y/y
CPI +2.4% y/y
Trimmed Mean +3.2% y/y
Here's your reminder of what all that means with some long term context.
WPI +3.2% y/y
CPI +2.4% y/y
Trimmed Mean +3.2% y/y
Here's your reminder of what all that means with some long term context.
February 20, 2025 at 1:44 AM
Total avg weekly earnings +5.5% y/y
WPI +3.2% y/y
CPI +2.4% y/y
Trimmed Mean +3.2% y/y
Here's your reminder of what all that means with some long term context.
WPI +3.2% y/y
CPI +2.4% y/y
Trimmed Mean +3.2% y/y
Here's your reminder of what all that means with some long term context.
Another strong jobs report.
Trend
Unemployment rate AUS 4.0% (unch), QLD 3.9% (unch)
The long-term male/female PR gap closing
Employment growth running well ahead of population. AUS +3.0%, QLD +3.5%
Trend
Unemployment rate AUS 4.0% (unch), QLD 3.9% (unch)
The long-term male/female PR gap closing
Employment growth running well ahead of population. AUS +3.0%, QLD +3.5%
February 20, 2025 at 1:37 AM
Another strong jobs report.
Trend
Unemployment rate AUS 4.0% (unch), QLD 3.9% (unch)
The long-term male/female PR gap closing
Employment growth running well ahead of population. AUS +3.0%, QLD +3.5%
Trend
Unemployment rate AUS 4.0% (unch), QLD 3.9% (unch)
The long-term male/female PR gap closing
Employment growth running well ahead of population. AUS +3.0%, QLD +3.5%