Connor Allen
@connorallennfl.bsky.social
Player Prop Bets & High Stakes FF at 4for4 | Director, Business Development & Betting at Betsperts Group |
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4for4 Plans & Pricing
4for4.com
July 1, 2025 at 4:34 PM
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Books have started to adjust props toward the median but if you are up to date on camp reports, coachspeak, role projections, etc there are tons of lines to pick off.
I have already released 7 season-long props, some of which are still available! (All of them are unders)
I have already released 7 season-long props, some of which are still available! (All of them are unders)
July 1, 2025 at 4:34 PM
Books have started to adjust props toward the median but if you are up to date on camp reports, coachspeak, role projections, etc there are tons of lines to pick off.
I have already released 7 season-long props, some of which are still available! (All of them are unders)
I have already released 7 season-long props, some of which are still available! (All of them are unders)
6. Why do season-long unders do so well?
There are so many extra outs for an under to hit instead of an over. An under can hit due to:
• Injury
• Poor performance
• Benching
• Roster changes impacting workload
• Poor QB play tanking the offense
• Bad OL play +many others
There are so many extra outs for an under to hit instead of an over. An under can hit due to:
• Injury
• Poor performance
• Benching
• Roster changes impacting workload
• Poor QB play tanking the offense
• Bad OL play +many others
July 1, 2025 at 4:34 PM
6. Why do season-long unders do so well?
There are so many extra outs for an under to hit instead of an over. An under can hit due to:
• Injury
• Poor performance
• Benching
• Roster changes impacting workload
• Poor QB play tanking the offense
• Bad OL play +many others
There are so many extra outs for an under to hit instead of an over. An under can hit due to:
• Injury
• Poor performance
• Benching
• Roster changes impacting workload
• Poor QB play tanking the offense
• Bad OL play +many others
5. So, should you ever bet overs? It's tough.
The ONLY category (out of 29 tracked) to show a multi-year profit on overs is QB Rushing Yards at 58%. This trend was supercharged by the most recent season and on a super small sample.
• 2021: 50%
• 2022: 63%
• 2023: 40%
• 2024: 80%
The ONLY category (out of 29 tracked) to show a multi-year profit on overs is QB Rushing Yards at 58%. This trend was supercharged by the most recent season and on a super small sample.
• 2021: 50%
• 2022: 63%
• 2023: 40%
• 2024: 80%
July 1, 2025 at 4:34 PM
5. So, should you ever bet overs? It's tough.
The ONLY category (out of 29 tracked) to show a multi-year profit on overs is QB Rushing Yards at 58%. This trend was supercharged by the most recent season and on a super small sample.
• 2021: 50%
• 2022: 63%
• 2023: 40%
• 2024: 80%
The ONLY category (out of 29 tracked) to show a multi-year profit on overs is QB Rushing Yards at 58%. This trend was supercharged by the most recent season and on a super small sample.
• 2021: 50%
• 2022: 63%
• 2023: 40%
• 2024: 80%
4. The 3rd highest hit rate over the last 4 years is Receiving Touchdown UNDERS at 62%
• 2021: 58%
• 2022: 64%
• 2023: 64%
• 2024: 60%
• 2021: 58%
• 2022: 64%
• 2023: 64%
• 2024: 60%
July 1, 2025 at 4:34 PM
4. The 3rd highest hit rate over the last 4 years is Receiving Touchdown UNDERS at 62%
• 2021: 58%
• 2022: 64%
• 2023: 64%
• 2024: 60%
• 2021: 58%
• 2022: 64%
• 2023: 64%
• 2024: 60%
3. The 2nd highest hit rate over the last 4 years is RB Rushing Touchdown UNDERS at 63%
• 2021: 72%
• 2022: 62%
• 2023: 59%
• 2024: 61%
• 2021: 72%
• 2022: 62%
• 2023: 59%
• 2024: 61%
July 1, 2025 at 4:34 PM
3. The 2nd highest hit rate over the last 4 years is RB Rushing Touchdown UNDERS at 63%
• 2021: 72%
• 2022: 62%
• 2023: 59%
• 2024: 61%
• 2021: 72%
• 2022: 62%
• 2023: 59%
• 2024: 61%
2. The single most profitable long-term bet has been Passing Yard UNDERS, hitting at a wild 69% over four seasons!
2021: 78%
2022: 71%
2023: 64%
2024: 67%
2021: 78%
2022: 71%
2023: 64%
2024: 67%
July 1, 2025 at 4:34 PM
2. The single most profitable long-term bet has been Passing Yard UNDERS, hitting at a wild 69% over four seasons!
2021: 78%
2022: 71%
2023: 64%
2024: 67%
2021: 78%
2022: 71%
2023: 64%
2024: 67%
1. Blindly betting the under on season-long player props has hit over 60% for four consecutive years!
Under hit rate by year:
• 2021: 63%
• 2022: 60%
• 2023: 60.5%
• 2024: 60.3%
Under hit rate by year:
• 2021: 63%
• 2022: 60%
• 2023: 60.5%
• 2024: 60.3%
July 1, 2025 at 4:34 PM
1. Blindly betting the under on season-long player props has hit over 60% for four consecutive years!
Under hit rate by year:
• 2021: 63%
• 2022: 60%
• 2023: 60.5%
• 2024: 60.3%
Under hit rate by year:
• 2021: 63%
• 2022: 60%
• 2023: 60.5%
• 2024: 60.3%
Appreciate it, Danny!
March 10, 2025 at 4:24 PM
Appreciate it, Danny!
On the other hand, Montgomery out-carried Gibbs 17-11 last time around against the Packers and recently was involved with leaking some plays/protections on Tik Tok. That may have no impact but I think there is a non-zero chance.
December 5, 2024 at 4:08 PM
On the other hand, Montgomery out-carried Gibbs 17-11 last time around against the Packers and recently was involved with leaking some plays/protections on Tik Tok. That may have no impact but I think there is a non-zero chance.
Reasoning:
"With no DJ Reader in the lineup, this Lions Rush defense is going from an elite unit to one of the most injured of the week.
"He’s posted 18, 26, and 19 carries over his last three games and currently ranks 3rd in yards with 987 and 4th in attempts with 221."
"With no DJ Reader in the lineup, this Lions Rush defense is going from an elite unit to one of the most injured of the week.
"He’s posted 18, 26, and 19 carries over his last three games and currently ranks 3rd in yards with 987 and 4th in attempts with 221."
December 5, 2024 at 4:08 PM
Reasoning:
"With no DJ Reader in the lineup, this Lions Rush defense is going from an elite unit to one of the most injured of the week.
"He’s posted 18, 26, and 19 carries over his last three games and currently ranks 3rd in yards with 987 and 4th in attempts with 221."
"With no DJ Reader in the lineup, this Lions Rush defense is going from an elite unit to one of the most injured of the week.
"He’s posted 18, 26, and 19 carries over his last three games and currently ranks 3rd in yards with 987 and 4th in attempts with 221."