My article expanding on this: open.substack.com/pub/concerni...

#Development #Trump #Tariffs #Trade #GlobalEconomy #TradeWar #Economics #Geopolitics

The post-war development era is over. The challenges are immense. But crisis forces adaptation. Maybe the end of the old, flawed model is the necessary catalyst for building more resilient, equitable, and sustainable paths for the 21st century. My full analysis: open.substack.com/pub/concerni...

Bold rethinking is needed. Harness the green transition as a development strategy. Not just resource extraction 2.0, but new global arrangements for shared, inclusive supply chains backed by fair finance & tech sharing. #GreenTransition #ClimateAction #IndustrialPolicy

So, what's the response? If it's just retaliatory tariffs & pouring money into defense while ignoring poverty, climate, health, we go nowhere constructive. The end of the old model demands fundamental rethinking, not just reaction.

The fallout isn't just economic. Expect grim political consequences. Economic devastation fuels the right-wing populism already rising since 2008, often providing cover for oligarchic interests to capture state resources amid nationalist rhetoric (sound familiar?). Fragmentation serves them well.

Tariffs on labour-intensive goods (clothing from Vietnam etc) are particularly ludicrous: these jobs are unattractive to US workers, consumers don’t want the higher prices. Tariffs on Vietnam etc won’t fix US trade imbalances. The US doesn't produce many goods these nations can afford at scale.

Now, these tariffs ruin that fragile model. They pull up the ladder for countries like Vietnam trying to follow the path.
FDI export platforms is undermined. And the damage is reciprocal – hitting US consumers & supply chains.

For decades, the model was manufacture for export: poor nations use low costs to sell goods (esp. to US), hoping to climb the ladder. But it was always hard, as Oks & Williams showed, recent "global progress" was hugely skewed by China. Remove China -> stagnation overall. The foundation was fragile