concept303
@concept303.bsky.social
It's 3 years and seven months. Not 4 years.
April 9, 2025 at 3:37 AM
It's 3 years and seven months. Not 4 years.
And redistributing wealth.
April 5, 2025 at 12:11 PM
And redistributing wealth.
23/ I guess that in the near future, Trump will have one of the lowest approval rates in US history. We are waiting with interest when the country will emerge from its paralysis and begin to resist him.
April 5, 2025 at 3:00 AM
23/ I guess that in the near future, Trump will have one of the lowest approval rates in US history. We are waiting with interest when the country will emerge from its paralysis and begin to resist him.
22/ So if a polling company is pro-Trump, I do not reject it, but I look at the trend of its polls over time and take an average of trends between companies to change the approval/disapproval rates over time. The same, of course, applies to polls conducted by, for example, democratic media.
April 5, 2025 at 3:00 AM
22/ So if a polling company is pro-Trump, I do not reject it, but I look at the trend of its polls over time and take an average of trends between companies to change the approval/disapproval rates over time. The same, of course, applies to polls conducted by, for example, democratic media.
21/ From now on, I will update at regular intervals, the best possible estimate of Trump's approval/disapproval rates. I try to use all polls that are published (I get them from the NYT polls aggregator) and I use what we call within variation, that is, the changes for the same poll over time.
April 5, 2025 at 3:00 AM
21/ From now on, I will update at regular intervals, the best possible estimate of Trump's approval/disapproval rates. I try to use all polls that are published (I get them from the NYT polls aggregator) and I use what we call within variation, that is, the changes for the same poll over time.
20/ The destruction he will bring to the rest of the world can be mitigated if the rest of the world moves carefully and in a coordinated manner.
April 5, 2025 at 2:59 AM
20/ The destruction he will bring to the rest of the world can be mitigated if the rest of the world moves carefully and in a coordinated manner.
19/ But we can be relatively certain, from his writing sample and the kind of man he is, that he will attempt it if he lives until then. The destruction he will ultimately bring to the US will, I believe, be irreversible.
April 5, 2025 at 2:59 AM
19/ But we can be relatively certain, from his writing sample and the kind of man he is, that he will attempt it if he lives until then. The destruction he will ultimately bring to the US will, I believe, be irreversible.
18/ The last time he tried to send troops into the streets, the professional leadership of the armed forces refused. This time he replaced them all. It is a question of whether he will be able to impose his will on the middle to upper echelons of the US military.
April 5, 2025 at 2:58 AM
18/ The last time he tried to send troops into the streets, the professional leadership of the armed forces refused. This time he replaced them all. It is a question of whether he will be able to impose his will on the middle to upper echelons of the US military.
17/ Trump, with the destruction he will soon bring to his country and the global economy, will never be voted in again, not even for fun. He will challenge any election result. And as in the past, he will attempt to overturn the result violently.
April 5, 2025 at 2:58 AM
17/ Trump, with the destruction he will soon bring to his country and the global economy, will never be voted in again, not even for fun. He will challenge any election result. And as in the past, he will attempt to overturn the result violently.
16/ The Supreme Court may allow this. Even if it does not allow it, Trump can ignore it since the Supreme Court relies on the executive branch to enforce its decisions.
April 5, 2025 at 2:58 AM
16/ The Supreme Court may allow this. Even if it does not allow it, Trump can ignore it since the Supreme Court relies on the executive branch to enforce its decisions.
15/ Trump is certain to attempt to unconstitutionally run for a third term. It is possible that a formula will be found to achieve this (e.g. Vance running for president with Trump as vice president with a promise of Vance's resignation after the election).
April 5, 2025 at 2:58 AM
15/ Trump is certain to attempt to unconstitutionally run for a third term. It is possible that a formula will be found to achieve this (e.g. Vance running for president with Trump as vice president with a promise of Vance's resignation after the election).
14/ I will hazard a prediction about Trump's course in America's interior (for foreign policy, the predictions are perhaps riskier). Trump will attempt a violent coup relatively soon (certainly within his four-year term). The coup in the US is already underway, but it has not yet become violent.
April 5, 2025 at 2:57 AM
14/ I will hazard a prediction about Trump's course in America's interior (for foreign policy, the predictions are perhaps riskier). Trump will attempt a violent coup relatively soon (certainly within his four-year term). The coup in the US is already underway, but it has not yet become violent.
13/ He has gathered around him an inexhaustible circus of incompetent flatterers, sycophants and opportunists because they either flattered him enough or served him in his previous improbable policies and paranoid fantasies of persecution.
April 5, 2025 at 2:56 AM
13/ He has gathered around him an inexhaustible circus of incompetent flatterers, sycophants and opportunists because they either flattered him enough or served him in his previous improbable policies and paranoid fantasies of persecution.
12/ This is in perfect harmony with the observation that he is constantly escalating the aggression with which he faces anyone he perceives as an opponent, internally or externally.
His paranoia means that it is very difficult to make deals with him.
His paranoia means that it is very difficult to make deals with him.
April 5, 2025 at 2:56 AM
12/ This is in perfect harmony with the observation that he is constantly escalating the aggression with which he faces anyone he perceives as an opponent, internally or externally.
His paranoia means that it is very difficult to make deals with him.
His paranoia means that it is very difficult to make deals with him.
11/ His illness (always according to the leading experts who have studied him) is such that his malignancy and narcissism are exacerbated equally by failures as by successes. He will not be satisfied, even if he succeeds in some of his goals.
April 5, 2025 at 2:55 AM
11/ His illness (always according to the leading experts who have studied him) is such that his malignancy and narcissism are exacerbated equally by failures as by successes. He will not be satisfied, even if he succeeds in some of his goals.
10/ he is ahistorical and incapable of understanding even the most pressing economic, political, strategic issues if these cannot be analyzed in simple terms of conflict, with naive binary patterns of friend/enemy, "good"/"bad", successful/failed, strong/weak, etc. etc
April 5, 2025 at 2:55 AM
10/ he is ahistorical and incapable of understanding even the most pressing economic, political, strategic issues if these cannot be analyzed in simple terms of conflict, with naive binary patterns of friend/enemy, "good"/"bad", successful/failed, strong/weak, etc. etc
9/ (for example, he believes that he is playing bilateral games and does not seem to understand that his actions towards his partners may lead them to change their relations with each other, nor the effects this will have on the American economy and power),
April 5, 2025 at 2:55 AM
9/ (for example, he believes that he is playing bilateral games and does not seem to understand that his actions towards his partners may lead them to change their relations with each other, nor the effects this will have on the American economy and power),
8/ Putin is clearly a psychopath, but he's a long-term player. Trump is incapable of even acknowledging the long-term consequences of his actions. He is completely unarmed, has no understanding of complex geopolitical and economic issues, does not know or understand complex patterns
April 5, 2025 at 2:54 AM
8/ Putin is clearly a psychopath, but he's a long-term player. Trump is incapable of even acknowledging the long-term consequences of his actions. He is completely unarmed, has no understanding of complex geopolitical and economic issues, does not know or understand complex patterns
7/ The panel of leading clinical psychiatrists and mental health experts from America's top universities who diagnosed him described his case as "pure evil." He has an extremely short-term planning horizon.
April 5, 2025 at 2:54 AM
7/ The panel of leading clinical psychiatrists and mental health experts from America's top universities who diagnosed him described his case as "pure evil." He has an extremely short-term planning horizon.
6/ He has one of the most dangerous, toxic, aggressive, and malignant mental disorders: a combination of psychopathy, narcissism, and extreme hedonism, called malignant narcissism, accompanied by symptoms of paranoia and sadism.
April 5, 2025 at 2:53 AM
6/ He has one of the most dangerous, toxic, aggressive, and malignant mental disorders: a combination of psychopathy, narcissism, and extreme hedonism, called malignant narcissism, accompanied by symptoms of paranoia and sadism.
5/ Trump as a businessman managed to do worse than he would have done if he had not made any business moves. For those who want "successful" businessmen at the head of state.
April 5, 2025 at 2:53 AM
5/ Trump as a businessman managed to do worse than he would have done if he had not made any business moves. For those who want "successful" businessmen at the head of state.