Colin Aitken
@colinaitken13.bsky.social
Postdoc @ Development Innovation Lab, University of Chicago. Interested in econometrics, education, global health, and innovation.
Reposts are mostly bookmarks for now.
Reposts are mostly bookmarks for now.
GPT5 having some trouble with the gold standard "can you draw me a spooky picture" benchmark
August 8, 2025 at 11:00 PM
GPT5 having some trouble with the gold standard "can you draw me a spooky picture" benchmark
Reposted by Colin Aitken
One thing I admired Americans for was they provided efficient and effective aid for people around the world.
I thought this made America great.
The PEPFAR program saved plausibly about 25 million lives and prevented at least 5.5 million babies from being born with HIV.
See: pepfarreport.org
I thought this made America great.
The PEPFAR program saved plausibly about 25 million lives and prevented at least 5.5 million babies from being born with HIV.
See: pepfarreport.org
February 17, 2025 at 2:46 PM
One thing I admired Americans for was they provided efficient and effective aid for people around the world.
I thought this made America great.
The PEPFAR program saved plausibly about 25 million lives and prevented at least 5.5 million babies from being born with HIV.
See: pepfarreport.org
I thought this made America great.
The PEPFAR program saved plausibly about 25 million lives and prevented at least 5.5 million babies from being born with HIV.
See: pepfarreport.org
Has the President’s Emergency Plan For AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) actually saved millions of lives?
We weren't sure, so we spent the last two weekends looking deeply into multiple lines of evidence. The short answer: PEPFAR saved between 7.5 and 30 million lives in the first 15 years of its existence.
We weren't sure, so we spent the last two weekends looking deeply into multiple lines of evidence. The short answer: PEPFAR saved between 7.5 and 30 million lives in the first 15 years of its existence.
PEPFAR Report
The State Department, which administers PEPFAR, says the program has saved 25 million lives. We are an independent team of journalists, academics, and technologists who decided to investigate whether ...
pepfarreport.org
February 11, 2025 at 11:00 PM
Has the President’s Emergency Plan For AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) actually saved millions of lives?
We weren't sure, so we spent the last two weekends looking deeply into multiple lines of evidence. The short answer: PEPFAR saved between 7.5 and 30 million lives in the first 15 years of its existence.
We weren't sure, so we spent the last two weekends looking deeply into multiple lines of evidence. The short answer: PEPFAR saved between 7.5 and 30 million lives in the first 15 years of its existence.
Reposted by Colin Aitken
The discussion ending at this tweet is very smart on both sides ( @lugaricano.bsky.social and @shengwuli.bsky.social ), reasonably spicy, and fun to read.
I don't think the argument for the price system rests on full information. I think it rests on Hayek 1945, hence precisely on dispersed local knowledge --i said that before. But let's leave it here. I think we clarified quite a bit, and I hope some of our readers (if there are any!) learned a bit.
January 15, 2025 at 12:19 AM
The discussion ending at this tweet is very smart on both sides ( @lugaricano.bsky.social and @shengwuli.bsky.social ), reasonably spicy, and fun to read.
Reposted by Colin Aitken
Hello #econsky. I am building a grad-level course for next semester on Macro Development with a focus on agriculture and the environment.
Please share and shamelessly (self-)promote any JMPs, WPs, and underrated bangers that you think would be worth including in the syllabus.
Please share and shamelessly (self-)promote any JMPs, WPs, and underrated bangers that you think would be worth including in the syllabus.
December 10, 2024 at 3:35 PM
Hello #econsky. I am building a grad-level course for next semester on Macro Development with a focus on agriculture and the environment.
Please share and shamelessly (self-)promote any JMPs, WPs, and underrated bangers that you think would be worth including in the syllabus.
Please share and shamelessly (self-)promote any JMPs, WPs, and underrated bangers that you think would be worth including in the syllabus.
Reposted by Colin Aitken
Here are some I have used from econ for teaching purposes aside from LaLonde: Fraker and Maynard (1987, JHR); Heckman and Smith (1999, JEP); Cook et al. (2008, JPAM). In other fields: Heineken and Shadish (1996, Psych Methods); Glazerman et al. (2003, Annals); Shadish et al. (2008, JASA).
December 10, 2024 at 1:16 AM
Here are some I have used from econ for teaching purposes aside from LaLonde: Fraker and Maynard (1987, JHR); Heckman and Smith (1999, JEP); Cook et al. (2008, JPAM). In other fields: Heineken and Shadish (1996, Psych Methods); Glazerman et al. (2003, Annals); Shadish et al. (2008, JASA).
Reposted by Colin Aitken
Here’s a nice one:
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...
Also, this person has cataloged a bunch of them:
gwern.net/correlation
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...
Also, this person has cataloged a bunch of them:
gwern.net/correlation
LURKING INFERENTIAL MONSTERS? QUANTIFYING SELECTION BIAS IN EVALUATIONS OF SCHOOL PROGRAMS
This study examines whether unobserved factors substantially bias education evaluations that rely on the Conditional Independence Assumption. We add 14 new within-study comparisons to the literature,...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
December 10, 2024 at 1:36 AM
Here’s a nice one:
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...
Also, this person has cataloged a bunch of them:
gwern.net/correlation
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...
Also, this person has cataloged a bunch of them:
gwern.net/correlation
Reposted by Colin Aitken
Because I've seen the law of iterated expectations, Jensen's inequality, and the central limit theorem mentioned in the past few days, I'll migrate one of my early Twitter posts about the tools necessary to master econometrics -- which includes each of those. Here it is.
December 5, 2024 at 12:07 AM
Because I've seen the law of iterated expectations, Jensen's inequality, and the central limit theorem mentioned in the past few days, I'll migrate one of my early Twitter posts about the tools necessary to master econometrics -- which includes each of those. Here it is.
Reposted by Colin Aitken
I literally showed that child mortality video this in class today. Everyone seems only vaguely impressed until I describe how my first born almost died shortly after birth (www.ryancbriggs.net/blog/2015/10...). It’s wild to me how much we need stories to even start to grasp something numerical.
November 27, 2024 at 9:56 PM
I literally showed that child mortality video this in class today. Everyone seems only vaguely impressed until I describe how my first born almost died shortly after birth (www.ryancbriggs.net/blog/2015/10...). It’s wild to me how much we need stories to even start to grasp something numerical.
Reposted by Colin Aitken
best films about economics? i have lagaan, wonka (2023), seven samurai, dune, killers of the flower moon and it's a wonderful life.
November 24, 2024 at 10:44 AM
best films about economics? i have lagaan, wonka (2023), seven samurai, dune, killers of the flower moon and it's a wonderful life.
Reposted by Colin Aitken
I often say there's lots of low-hanging fruit where research could answer important qs with well-designed studies, but they don't happen bc of poor incentives, neglected areas, etc.
@ruben.the100.ci suggested writing a thread of 'studies I would fund in a heartbeat'. So here is an ongoing thread.
@ruben.the100.ci suggested writing a thread of 'studies I would fund in a heartbeat'. So here is an ongoing thread.
November 13, 2024 at 10:59 AM
I often say there's lots of low-hanging fruit where research could answer important qs with well-designed studies, but they don't happen bc of poor incentives, neglected areas, etc.
@ruben.the100.ci suggested writing a thread of 'studies I would fund in a heartbeat'. So here is an ongoing thread.
@ruben.the100.ci suggested writing a thread of 'studies I would fund in a heartbeat'. So here is an ongoing thread.