Sarah Cobey
@cobey.bsky.social
Professor at U. Chicago. Computational epidemiology, evolution, influenza, SARS-CoV-2, vaccines, and B cells. Infectious disease dynamics across scales.
We've focused on resilience in the context of large perturbations. We also showed that resilience determines how sensitive a system is to smaller stochastic perturbations, with less resilient systems exhibiting greater deviations from deterministic trajectories under demographic stochasticity. [6/8]
June 23, 2025 at 9:07 PM
We've focused on resilience in the context of large perturbations. We also showed that resilience determines how sensitive a system is to smaller stochastic perturbations, with less resilient systems exhibiting greater deviations from deterministic trajectories under demographic stochasticity. [6/8]
What determines how resilient a pathogen is? It depends on the per-capita rate of replenishment of the susceptible population. Faster replenishment = more resilient dynamics, where the rate of replenishment depends on the duration of immunity and basic reproduction number (R0). [5/8]
June 23, 2025 at 9:07 PM
What determines how resilient a pathogen is? It depends on the per-capita rate of replenishment of the susceptible population. Faster replenishment = more resilient dynamics, where the rate of replenishment depends on the duration of immunity and basic reproduction number (R0). [5/8]
We estimated that common respiratory pathogens are much more resilient than vaccine-preventable infections, such as measles. Our predictions about pathogen return also closely match the observed deviations (or lack thereof) from the pre-COVID dynamics of respiratory pathogens. [4/8]
June 23, 2025 at 9:07 PM
We estimated that common respiratory pathogens are much more resilient than vaccine-preventable infections, such as measles. Our predictions about pathogen return also closely match the observed deviations (or lack thereof) from the pre-COVID dynamics of respiratory pathogens. [4/8]
We analyzed relevant time series data from Hong Kong, Canada, Korea, and the US. By quantifying the resilience of common respiratory pathogens, we could predict when each pathogen would eventually return to its pre-pandemic dynamics. [3/8]
June 23, 2025 at 9:07 PM
We analyzed relevant time series data from Hong Kong, Canada, Korea, and the US. By quantifying the resilience of common respiratory pathogens, we could predict when each pathogen would eventually return to its pre-pandemic dynamics. [3/8]
COVID-19 interventions disrupted the circulation of many pathogens. To understand if and when they might return to pre-pandemic patterns, we developed a framework for quantifying the rate of return to pre-pandemic patterns—a measure of pathogen resilience in a given host population. [2/8]
June 23, 2025 at 9:07 PM
COVID-19 interventions disrupted the circulation of many pathogens. To understand if and when they might return to pre-pandemic patterns, we developed a framework for quantifying the rate of return to pre-pandemic patterns—a measure of pathogen resilience in a given host population. [2/8]
Sang Woo (Daniel) Park and I are excited to share a new preprint, "Susceptible host dynamics explain pathogen resilience to perturbations" [1/8]
www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...
www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...
June 23, 2025 at 9:07 PM
Sang Woo (Daniel) Park and I are excited to share a new preprint, "Susceptible host dynamics explain pathogen resilience to perturbations" [1/8]
www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...
www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...
I received a surprising and disturbing request from NIH on Friday. They wrote to cancel a subaward to Hong Kong on one of my grants. (This was disturbing but not surprising.) They also ordered us not to interact with our collaborators in Hong Kong on any work under the award:
April 27, 2025 at 7:26 PM
I received a surprising and disturbing request from NIH on Friday. They wrote to cancel a subaward to Hong Kong on one of my grants. (This was disturbing but not surprising.) They also ordered us not to interact with our collaborators in Hong Kong on any work under the award:
We also examined patterns of neutralization in the population, finding strong patterns by age or birth year. We think this indicates some shared epitope specificity by age group. We also find these patterns of targeting--kind of like local antibody landscapes--gradually diversify with age.
October 27, 2023 at 4:18 PM
We also examined patterns of neutralization in the population, finding strong patterns by age or birth year. We think this indicates some shared epitope specificity by age group. We also find these patterns of targeting--kind of like local antibody landscapes--gradually diversify with age.
that adults, who were disproportionately susceptible to that clade compared to little kids, had disproportionately more infections associated with that clade the next season (this is rather rough, as we inferred that infection distribution from GISAID).
October 27, 2023 at 4:14 PM
that adults, who were disproportionately susceptible to that clade compared to little kids, had disproportionately more infections associated with that clade the next season (this is rather rough, as we inferred that infection distribution from GISAID).