Coaches Hot Seat
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The authority on college football coaching performance. Analyzing who's rising, falling, and heading for the exit. Keeping CFB fans "in the know" since 2009. https://coacheshotseat.beehiiv.com/subscribe
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➡️ Rankings drop every Tuesday
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Link below: (11/11)
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Subscribe to the Coaches Hot Seat Newsletter:
➡️ Rankings drop every Tuesday
➡️ Detailed coach profiles every Friday
➡️ Analysis you won't find anywhere else
Link below: (11/11)
coacheshotseat.beehiiv.com/subscribe
Coaches Hot Seat
College football insights that will make your friends ask "How did you know?"
coacheshotseat.beehiiv.com
September 5, 2025 at 6:29 PM
Want the inside scoop on coaching pressure and program analysis?
Subscribe to the Coaches Hot Seat Newsletter:
➡️ Rankings drop every Tuesday
➡️ Detailed coach profiles every Friday
➡️ Analysis you won't find anywhere else
Link below: (11/11)
coacheshotseat.beehiiv.com/subscribe
Subscribe to the Coaches Hot Seat Newsletter:
➡️ Rankings drop every Tuesday
➡️ Detailed coach profiles every Friday
➡️ Analysis you won't find anywhere else
Link below: (11/11)
coacheshotseat.beehiiv.com/subscribe
My prediction based on the data: Vanderbilt 31, Virginia Tech 24
Diego Pavia's dual-threat ability exploits VT's defensive uncertainty. Superior ball security provides the margin.
When games are decided in crucial moments, proven chemistry beats hopeful roster construction. (10/11)
Diego Pavia's dual-threat ability exploits VT's defensive uncertainty. Superior ball security provides the margin.
When games are decided in crucial moments, proven chemistry beats hopeful roster construction. (10/11)
September 5, 2025 at 6:29 PM
My prediction based on the data: Vanderbilt 31, Virginia Tech 24
Diego Pavia's dual-threat ability exploits VT's defensive uncertainty. Superior ball security provides the margin.
When games are decided in crucial moments, proven chemistry beats hopeful roster construction. (10/11)
Diego Pavia's dual-threat ability exploits VT's defensive uncertainty. Superior ball security provides the margin.
When games are decided in crucial moments, proven chemistry beats hopeful roster construction. (10/11)
The pressure is building in Blacksburg:
➡️ They're the ACC program with more resources
➡️ They're playing at home
➡️ They already lost to this team once
➡️ Fans expect clear improvement after major changes
Another loss to Vanderbilt would signal serious problems. (9/11)
➡️ They're the ACC program with more resources
➡️ They're playing at home
➡️ They already lost to this team once
➡️ Fans expect clear improvement after major changes
Another loss to Vanderbilt would signal serious problems. (9/11)
September 5, 2025 at 6:29 PM
The pressure is building in Blacksburg:
➡️ They're the ACC program with more resources
➡️ They're playing at home
➡️ They already lost to this team once
➡️ Fans expect clear improvement after major changes
Another loss to Vanderbilt would signal serious problems. (9/11)
➡️ They're the ACC program with more resources
➡️ They're playing at home
➡️ They already lost to this team once
➡️ Fans expect clear improvement after major changes
Another loss to Vanderbilt would signal serious problems. (9/11)
Virginia Tech lost FIVE one-score games in 2024, including defeats to Vanderbilt and Rutgers.
Their new coordinators Philip Montgomery and Sam Siefkes must fix those crucial-moment failures.
But installing new systems with new players against SEC competition? That's asking a lot. (8/11)
Their new coordinators Philip Montgomery and Sam Siefkes must fix those crucial-moment failures.
But installing new systems with new players against SEC competition? That's asking a lot. (8/11)
September 5, 2025 at 6:29 PM
Virginia Tech lost FIVE one-score games in 2024, including defeats to Vanderbilt and Rutgers.
Their new coordinators Philip Montgomery and Sam Siefkes must fix those crucial-moment failures.
But installing new systems with new players against SEC competition? That's asking a lot. (8/11)
Their new coordinators Philip Montgomery and Sam Siefkes must fix those crucial-moment failures.
But installing new systems with new players against SEC competition? That's asking a lot. (8/11)
The philosophical difference tells the story:
Vanderbilt strategically targets undervalued transfers who fit their culture & system.
Virginia Tech panic-bought 30+ players, hoping quantity would fix their close-game problems.
One approach builds winners. The other builds false hope. (7/11)
Vanderbilt strategically targets undervalued transfers who fit their culture & system.
Virginia Tech panic-bought 30+ players, hoping quantity would fix their close-game problems.
One approach builds winners. The other builds false hope. (7/11)
September 5, 2025 at 6:29 PM
The philosophical difference tells the story:
Vanderbilt strategically targets undervalued transfers who fit their culture & system.
Virginia Tech panic-bought 30+ players, hoping quantity would fix their close-game problems.
One approach builds winners. The other builds false hope. (7/11)
Vanderbilt strategically targets undervalued transfers who fit their culture & system.
Virginia Tech panic-bought 30+ players, hoping quantity would fix their close-game problems.
One approach builds winners. The other builds false hope. (7/11)
Meanwhile, Vanderbilt returns their core:
➡️ QB Diego Pavia (SEC Newcomer of the Year, 143.5 passer rating)
➡️ TE Eli Stowers (First-Team All-SEC, 49 catches, 638 yards)
➡️ 9 defensive starters who improved from 126th to 50th in scoring defense
Continuity beats chaos every time. (6/11)
➡️ QB Diego Pavia (SEC Newcomer of the Year, 143.5 passer rating)
➡️ TE Eli Stowers (First-Team All-SEC, 49 catches, 638 yards)
➡️ 9 defensive starters who improved from 126th to 50th in scoring defense
Continuity beats chaos every time. (6/11)
September 5, 2025 at 6:29 PM
Meanwhile, Vanderbilt returns their core:
➡️ QB Diego Pavia (SEC Newcomer of the Year, 143.5 passer rating)
➡️ TE Eli Stowers (First-Team All-SEC, 49 catches, 638 yards)
➡️ 9 defensive starters who improved from 126th to 50th in scoring defense
Continuity beats chaos every time. (6/11)
➡️ QB Diego Pavia (SEC Newcomer of the Year, 143.5 passer rating)
➡️ TE Eli Stowers (First-Team All-SEC, 49 catches, 638 yards)
➡️ 9 defensive starters who improved from 126th to 50th in scoring defense
Continuity beats chaos every time. (6/11)
Now Virginia Tech faces the same Vanderbilt team with massive roster uncertainty:
GONE:
➡️ RB Bhayshul Tuten (1,159 yards, 15 TDs)
➡️ EDGE Antwaun Powell-Ryland (16 sacks)
➡️ DC Chris Marve and 2 other coaches
Can 30+ new faces develop chemistry against proven SEC talent? Doubtful. (5/11)
GONE:
➡️ RB Bhayshul Tuten (1,159 yards, 15 TDs)
➡️ EDGE Antwaun Powell-Ryland (16 sacks)
➡️ DC Chris Marve and 2 other coaches
Can 30+ new faces develop chemistry against proven SEC talent? Doubtful. (5/11)
September 5, 2025 at 6:29 PM
Now Virginia Tech faces the same Vanderbilt team with massive roster uncertainty:
GONE:
➡️ RB Bhayshul Tuten (1,159 yards, 15 TDs)
➡️ EDGE Antwaun Powell-Ryland (16 sacks)
➡️ DC Chris Marve and 2 other coaches
Can 30+ new faces develop chemistry against proven SEC talent? Doubtful. (5/11)
GONE:
➡️ RB Bhayshul Tuten (1,159 yards, 15 TDs)
➡️ EDGE Antwaun Powell-Ryland (16 sacks)
➡️ DC Chris Marve and 2 other coaches
Can 30+ new faces develop chemistry against proven SEC talent? Doubtful. (5/11)
Turnovers per game:
➡️ Vanderbilt: 0.5
➡️ Virginia Tech: 1.3
That 0.8 difference was the margin between breakthrough and disappointment.
In college football, possessions are precious. You can't give away 33% more than your opponent and expect to win. (4/11)
➡️ Vanderbilt: 0.5
➡️ Virginia Tech: 1.3
That 0.8 difference was the margin between breakthrough and disappointment.
In college football, possessions are precious. You can't give away 33% more than your opponent and expect to win. (4/11)
September 5, 2025 at 6:29 PM
Turnovers per game:
➡️ Vanderbilt: 0.5
➡️ Virginia Tech: 1.3
That 0.8 difference was the margin between breakthrough and disappointment.
In college football, possessions are precious. You can't give away 33% more than your opponent and expect to win. (4/11)
➡️ Vanderbilt: 0.5
➡️ Virginia Tech: 1.3
That 0.8 difference was the margin between breakthrough and disappointment.
In college football, possessions are precious. You can't give away 33% more than your opponent and expect to win. (4/11)
The 2024 numbers reveal why Virginia Tech lost to Vanderbilt despite better stats:
VT averaged 367.8 total yards vs Vandy's 318.4
VT rushed for 178.4 yards vs Vandy's 139.8
But here's the killer stat that decided everything... (3/11)
VT averaged 367.8 total yards vs Vandy's 318.4
VT rushed for 178.4 yards vs Vandy's 139.8
But here's the killer stat that decided everything... (3/11)
September 5, 2025 at 6:29 PM
The 2024 numbers reveal why Virginia Tech lost to Vanderbilt despite better stats:
VT averaged 367.8 total yards vs Vandy's 318.4
VT rushed for 178.4 yards vs Vandy's 139.8
But here's the killer stat that decided everything... (3/11)
VT averaged 367.8 total yards vs Vandy's 318.4
VT rushed for 178.4 yards vs Vandy's 139.8
But here's the killer stat that decided everything... (3/11)
Over the past 12 months, I've analyzed coaching pressure situations across college football.
Virginia Tech's offseason moves reveal a program under pressure.
After going 6-6, Pry overhauled his staff and added 30+ transfer portal players.
That's a coach feeling the heat. (2/11)
Virginia Tech's offseason moves reveal a program under pressure.
After going 6-6, Pry overhauled his staff and added 30+ transfer portal players.
That's a coach feeling the heat. (2/11)
September 5, 2025 at 6:29 PM
Over the past 12 months, I've analyzed coaching pressure situations across college football.
Virginia Tech's offseason moves reveal a program under pressure.
After going 6-6, Pry overhauled his staff and added 30+ transfer portal players.
That's a coach feeling the heat. (2/11)
Virginia Tech's offseason moves reveal a program under pressure.
After going 6-6, Pry overhauled his staff and added 30+ transfer portal players.
That's a coach feeling the heat. (2/11)
6/6:
When coaches are desperate, they become dangerous.
Every play call gets magnified.
Every decision scrutinized.
Saturday reveals whether Oklahoma's complete overhaul was the move of a genius or a coach's final gamble.
Get the inside story: coacheshotseat.beehiiv.com/subscribe
When coaches are desperate, they become dangerous.
Every play call gets magnified.
Every decision scrutinized.
Saturday reveals whether Oklahoma's complete overhaul was the move of a genius or a coach's final gamble.
Get the inside story: coacheshotseat.beehiiv.com/subscribe
Coaches Hot Seat
College football insights that will make your friends ask "How did you know?"
coacheshotseat.beehiiv.com
September 3, 2025 at 10:52 PM
6/6:
When coaches are desperate, they become dangerous.
Every play call gets magnified.
Every decision scrutinized.
Saturday reveals whether Oklahoma's complete overhaul was the move of a genius or a coach's final gamble.
Get the inside story: coacheshotseat.beehiiv.com/subscribe
When coaches are desperate, they become dangerous.
Every play call gets magnified.
Every decision scrutinized.
Saturday reveals whether Oklahoma's complete overhaul was the move of a genius or a coach's final gamble.
Get the inside story: coacheshotseat.beehiiv.com/subscribe
5/6:
The stakes couldn't be higher for Venables. ESPN calls Oklahoma's schedule the toughest in college football—8 projected top-25 opponents await.
This Michigan game is his best shot at momentum before the SEC meat grinder begins. There's no margin for error.👇
The stakes couldn't be higher for Venables. ESPN calls Oklahoma's schedule the toughest in college football—8 projected top-25 opponents await.
This Michigan game is his best shot at momentum before the SEC meat grinder begins. There's no margin for error.👇
September 3, 2025 at 10:52 PM
5/6:
The stakes couldn't be higher for Venables. ESPN calls Oklahoma's schedule the toughest in college football—8 projected top-25 opponents await.
This Michigan game is his best shot at momentum before the SEC meat grinder begins. There's no margin for error.👇
The stakes couldn't be higher for Venables. ESPN calls Oklahoma's schedule the toughest in college football—8 projected top-25 opponents await.
This Michigan game is his best shot at momentum before the SEC meat grinder begins. There's no margin for error.👇
4/6:
Michigan's answer: Bryce Underwood, the #1 recruit in America who's already showing he belongs.
His debut: 21/31 for 251 yards and 1 TD. Not bad for someone who was supposed to need "development time."👇
Michigan's answer: Bryce Underwood, the #1 recruit in America who's already showing he belongs.
His debut: 21/31 for 251 yards and 1 TD. Not bad for someone who was supposed to need "development time."👇
September 3, 2025 at 10:52 PM
4/6:
Michigan's answer: Bryce Underwood, the #1 recruit in America who's already showing he belongs.
His debut: 21/31 for 251 yards and 1 TD. Not bad for someone who was supposed to need "development time."👇
Michigan's answer: Bryce Underwood, the #1 recruit in America who's already showing he belongs.
His debut: 21/31 for 251 yards and 1 TD. Not bad for someone who was supposed to need "development time."👇
3/6:
Oklahoma's response to potential collapse was revolutionary. They didn't make tweaks—they detonated everything:
21 transfer portal players, new coordinators, a GM from the NFL, and John Mateer (who led all of college football with 44 total touchdowns last season).👇
Oklahoma's response to potential collapse was revolutionary. They didn't make tweaks—they detonated everything:
21 transfer portal players, new coordinators, a GM from the NFL, and John Mateer (who led all of college football with 44 total touchdowns last season).👇
September 3, 2025 at 10:52 PM
3/6:
Oklahoma's response to potential collapse was revolutionary. They didn't make tweaks—they detonated everything:
21 transfer portal players, new coordinators, a GM from the NFL, and John Mateer (who led all of college football with 44 total touchdowns last season).👇
Oklahoma's response to potential collapse was revolutionary. They didn't make tweaks—they detonated everything:
21 transfer portal players, new coordinators, a GM from the NFL, and John Mateer (who led all of college football with 44 total touchdowns last season).👇
2/6:
The brutal reality: Venables enters his fourth season with a 22-17 record and two losing seasons out of three at Oklahoma.
Meanwhile, Michigan's Sherrone Moore sits comfortably at #36 in our rankings. One coach is fighting for survival, the other is building something special.👇
The brutal reality: Venables enters his fourth season with a 22-17 record and two losing seasons out of three at Oklahoma.
Meanwhile, Michigan's Sherrone Moore sits comfortably at #36 in our rankings. One coach is fighting for survival, the other is building something special.👇
September 3, 2025 at 10:52 PM
2/6:
The brutal reality: Venables enters his fourth season with a 22-17 record and two losing seasons out of three at Oklahoma.
Meanwhile, Michigan's Sherrone Moore sits comfortably at #36 in our rankings. One coach is fighting for survival, the other is building something special.👇
The brutal reality: Venables enters his fourth season with a 22-17 record and two losing seasons out of three at Oklahoma.
Meanwhile, Michigan's Sherrone Moore sits comfortably at #36 in our rankings. One coach is fighting for survival, the other is building something special.👇
Auburn is favored, but I'm taking the Bears:
▶️Home Friday night crowd in Waco
▶️15 returning starters vs 19 new transfers
▶️Auburn's pressure-packed situation
▶️Aranda is coaching for respect
Time: 8 PM ET on FOX 🏈
🔥 Want our hot seat rankings? Subscribe here: coacheshotseat.beehiiv.com/subscribe
▶️Home Friday night crowd in Waco
▶️15 returning starters vs 19 new transfers
▶️Auburn's pressure-packed situation
▶️Aranda is coaching for respect
Time: 8 PM ET on FOX 🏈
🔥 Want our hot seat rankings? Subscribe here: coacheshotseat.beehiiv.com/subscribe
Coaches Hot Seat
College football insights that will make your friends ask "How did you know?"
coacheshotseat.beehiiv.com
August 29, 2025 at 9:10 PM
Auburn is favored, but I'm taking the Bears:
▶️Home Friday night crowd in Waco
▶️15 returning starters vs 19 new transfers
▶️Auburn's pressure-packed situation
▶️Aranda is coaching for respect
Time: 8 PM ET on FOX 🏈
🔥 Want our hot seat rankings? Subscribe here: coacheshotseat.beehiiv.com/subscribe
▶️Home Friday night crowd in Waco
▶️15 returning starters vs 19 new transfers
▶️Auburn's pressure-packed situation
▶️Aranda is coaching for respect
Time: 8 PM ET on FOX 🏈
🔥 Want our hot seat rankings? Subscribe here: coacheshotseat.beehiiv.com/subscribe
11/12
This game determines everything:
✅ Does Auburn's $20M investment pay off?
✅ Can Freeze save his job with a statement win?
✅ Will Baylor's home crowd create an upset?
✅ Which program carries momentum into conference play?
This game determines everything:
✅ Does Auburn's $20M investment pay off?
✅ Can Freeze save his job with a statement win?
✅ Will Baylor's home crowd create an upset?
✅ Which program carries momentum into conference play?
August 29, 2025 at 9:10 PM
11/12
This game determines everything:
✅ Does Auburn's $20M investment pay off?
✅ Can Freeze save his job with a statement win?
✅ Will Baylor's home crowd create an upset?
✅ Which program carries momentum into conference play?
This game determines everything:
✅ Does Auburn's $20M investment pay off?
✅ Can Freeze save his job with a statement win?
✅ Will Baylor's home crowd create an upset?
✅ Which program carries momentum into conference play?
10/12
Arnold's personal connection adds juice:
"Going back to Texas and playing under Friday night lights means a lot to me," he said after Tuesday's practice.
Nothing like playing with extra motivation in a hostile environment.
Arnold's personal connection adds juice:
"Going back to Texas and playing under Friday night lights means a lot to me," he said after Tuesday's practice.
Nothing like playing with extra motivation in a hostile environment.
August 29, 2025 at 9:10 PM
10/12
Arnold's personal connection adds juice:
"Going back to Texas and playing under Friday night lights means a lot to me," he said after Tuesday's practice.
Nothing like playing with extra motivation in a hostile environment.
Arnold's personal connection adds juice:
"Going back to Texas and playing under Friday night lights means a lot to me," he said after Tuesday's practice.
Nothing like playing with extra motivation in a hostile environment.
9/12
But Baylor made moves too.
They added defensive backs through the transfer portal and hired a new passing game coordinator with TCU experience.
Sometimes desperation breeds innovation.
But Baylor made moves too.
They added defensive backs through the transfer portal and hired a new passing game coordinator with TCU experience.
Sometimes desperation breeds innovation.
August 29, 2025 at 9:10 PM
9/12
But Baylor made moves too.
They added defensive backs through the transfer portal and hired a new passing game coordinator with TCU experience.
Sometimes desperation breeds innovation.
But Baylor made moves too.
They added defensive backs through the transfer portal and hired a new passing game coordinator with TCU experience.
Sometimes desperation breeds innovation.
8/12
Here's the problem for Baylor:
▶️Their pass defense ranked 94th nationally in 2024, allowing 234.2 passing yards per game.
▶️Auburn brings 19 new transfers and one of the nation's most talented receiving groups.
▶️The math doesn't look good for the Bears.
Here's the problem for Baylor:
▶️Their pass defense ranked 94th nationally in 2024, allowing 234.2 passing yards per game.
▶️Auburn brings 19 new transfers and one of the nation's most talented receiving groups.
▶️The math doesn't look good for the Bears.
August 29, 2025 at 9:10 PM
8/12
Here's the problem for Baylor:
▶️Their pass defense ranked 94th nationally in 2024, allowing 234.2 passing yards per game.
▶️Auburn brings 19 new transfers and one of the nation's most talented receiving groups.
▶️The math doesn't look good for the Bears.
Here's the problem for Baylor:
▶️Their pass defense ranked 94th nationally in 2024, allowing 234.2 passing yards per game.
▶️Auburn brings 19 new transfers and one of the nation's most talented receiving groups.
▶️The math doesn't look good for the Bears.
7/12
The matchup everyone should watch:
Auburn's elite receiving corps vs Baylor's rebuilt secondary.
Cam Coleman (true freshman): 37 catches, 598 yards, 8 TDs
▶️Georgia Tech transfer Eric Singleton Jr.
This could get ugly fast.
The matchup everyone should watch:
Auburn's elite receiving corps vs Baylor's rebuilt secondary.
Cam Coleman (true freshman): 37 catches, 598 yards, 8 TDs
▶️Georgia Tech transfer Eric Singleton Jr.
This could get ugly fast.
August 29, 2025 at 9:10 PM
7/12
The matchup everyone should watch:
Auburn's elite receiving corps vs Baylor's rebuilt secondary.
Cam Coleman (true freshman): 37 catches, 598 yards, 8 TDs
▶️Georgia Tech transfer Eric Singleton Jr.
This could get ugly fast.
The matchup everyone should watch:
Auburn's elite receiving corps vs Baylor's rebuilt secondary.
Cam Coleman (true freshman): 37 catches, 598 yards, 8 TDs
▶️Georgia Tech transfer Eric Singleton Jr.
This could get ugly fast.
6/12
Baylor's turnaround saved Dave Aranda's job.
After going 3-9 in 2023, many thought he was done. Instead, the Bears finished 7th in the Big 12 and looked competent again.
QB Sawyer Robertson threw for 3,071 yards and 28 TDs in 11 starts.
Baylor's turnaround saved Dave Aranda's job.
After going 3-9 in 2023, many thought he was done. Instead, the Bears finished 7th in the Big 12 and looked competent again.
QB Sawyer Robertson threw for 3,071 yards and 28 TDs in 11 starts.
August 29, 2025 at 9:10 PM
6/12
Baylor's turnaround saved Dave Aranda's job.
After going 3-9 in 2023, many thought he was done. Instead, the Bears finished 7th in the Big 12 and looked competent again.
QB Sawyer Robertson threw for 3,071 yards and 28 TDs in 11 starts.
Baylor's turnaround saved Dave Aranda's job.
After going 3-9 in 2023, many thought he was done. Instead, the Bears finished 7th in the Big 12 and looked competent again.
QB Sawyer Robertson threw for 3,071 yards and 28 TDs in 11 starts.
5/12
But here's what makes this game fascinating:
Baylor isn't the pushover you think.
The Bears went 8-5 in 2024 and return 15 starters from their bowl team. They earned their first bowl bid since 2022 after a 3-9 disaster in 2023.
But here's what makes this game fascinating:
Baylor isn't the pushover you think.
The Bears went 8-5 in 2024 and return 15 starters from their bowl team. They earned their first bowl bid since 2022 after a 3-9 disaster in 2023.
August 29, 2025 at 9:10 PM
5/12
But here's what makes this game fascinating:
Baylor isn't the pushover you think.
The Bears went 8-5 in 2024 and return 15 starters from their bowl team. They earned their first bowl bid since 2022 after a 3-9 disaster in 2023.
But here's what makes this game fascinating:
Baylor isn't the pushover you think.
The Bears went 8-5 in 2024 and return 15 starters from their bowl team. They earned their first bowl bid since 2022 after a 3-9 disaster in 2023.